The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged

[RickBFA]

Anyone still think it wasn't the Russians?

Anyone asked JC yet? He’ll probably dodge the question.

One of the stock answers i’ve heard a few times from him and some of his cabinet recently is “that’s a hypothetical question” and then say something completely meaningless.

[RickBFA]

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/uk.news.yahoo.com/amphtml/labour-tory-tax-plans-measure-195503790.html

Interesting analysis on sky about Labour and Tory tax plans.

“Labour plans will give us the highest tax’s since 1948”

[BigAdz]

Just watching the coverage of the Labour conference after Corbyns speach.

All those interviewed seemed a little slow to me.

Are these typical Labour frontline supporters of 2018?

Worrying if this is the alternative set up.......

[kukushkin88]

Just watching the coverage of the Labour conference after Corbyns speach.

All those interviewed seemed a little slow to me.

Are these typical Labour frontline supporters of 2018?

Worrying if this is the alternative set up.......

I think the problems are, your sample size and just how subjective the concept of people being ‘slow’ is. It would be interesting to know if you actually mean slow or ’slow’ as a euphemism for not very bright.

[DungBeetle]

Household debt is just exactly as it sounds, combine all debts of every member of a household. There seem to be two approved comparisons, as a  percentage of GDP and as a percentage of income. It seems percentage of income is the one which will reveal if there’s a problem in the poorest sections of society.

I think you meant this one, it’s % of GDP:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/households-debt-to-gdp

The Guardian article is interesting, I recommend reading it.

I agree.  The last article you posted was using a personal deficit metric though which is different.  Depending on what I pick I can fit most narratives I want.

[kukushkin88]

Household debt is just exactly as it sounds, combine all debts of every member of a household. There seem to be two approved comparisons, as a  percentage of GDP and as a percentage of income. It seems percentage of income is the one which will reveal if there’s a problem in the poorest sections of society.

I think you meant this one, it’s % of GDP:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/households-debt-to-gdp

The Guardian article is interesting, I recommend reading it.

I agree.  The last article you posted was using a personal deficit metric though which is different.  Depending on what I pick I can fit most narratives I want.

That’s cool, ‘a number of narratives’ might be better than ‘most narratives’ , there is just the one reality at the end of the day. Let’s get back to trying to work out what it is..... Show me a metric that suggests Austerity was a good idea. It’ll probably need to contradict the idea that a massive chunk of the debt has been passed to Britain’s poorest people in order to be compelling. For Rick, we’ll leave the unnecessary deaths out of it.

[DungBeetle]

Household debt is just exactly as it sounds, combine all debts of every member of a household. There seem to be two approved comparisons, as a  percentage of GDP and as a percentage of income. It seems percentage of income is the one which will reveal if there’s a problem in the poorest sections of society.

I think you meant this one, it’s % of GDP:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/households-debt-to-gdp

The Guardian article is interesting, I recommend reading it.

I agree.  The last article you posted was using a personal deficit metric though which is different.  Depending on what I pick I can fit most narratives I want.

That’s cool, ‘a number of narratives’ might be better than ‘most narratives’ , there is just the one reality at the end of the day. Let’s get back to trying to work out what it is..... Show me a metric that suggests Austerity was a good idea. It’ll probably need to contradict the idea that a massive chunk of the debt has been passed to Britain’s poorest people in order to be compelling. For Rick, we’ll leave the unnecessary deaths out of it.

Whether austerity was a good or bad idea is another question.  The point is household debt to GDP was higher in 2010 than it is now so I don’t think it is relevant in analysing if austerity has been a success or not.  The answer to tha austerity question in my view is that it hasn’t been a success but I don’t think household debt figures in that analysis (or a slowing in life expectancy growth for that matter as there are many lifestyle variables).  In fact I’m not sure where the new statesman figures come from as they are miles apart from the figures I saw so they must be using a different definition, hence my comment on narratives.

[kukushkin88]

Household debt is just exactly as it sounds, combine all debts of every member of a household. There seem to be two approved comparisons, as a  percentage of GDP and as a percentage of income. It seems percentage of income is the one which will reveal if there’s a problem in the poorest sections of society.

I think you meant this one, it’s % of GDP:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/households-debt-to-gdp

The Guardian article is interesting, I recommend reading it.

I agree.  The last article you posted was using a personal deficit metric though which is different.  Depending on what I pick I can fit most narratives I want.

That’s cool, ‘a number of narratives’ might be better than ‘most narratives’ , there is just the one reality at the end of the day. Let’s get back to trying to work out what it is..... Show me a metric that suggests Austerity was a good idea. It’ll probably need to contradict the idea that a massive chunk of the debt has been passed to Britain’s poorest people in order to be compelling. For Rick, we’ll leave the unnecessary deaths out of it.

Whether austerity was a good or bad idea is another question.  The point is household debt to GDP was higher in 2010 than it is now so I don’t think it is relevant in analysing if austerity has been a success or not.  The answer to tha austerity question in my view is that it hasn’t been a success but I don’t think household debt figures in that analysis (or a slowing in life expectancy growth for that matter as there are many lifestyle variables).  In fact I’m not sure where the new statesman figures come from as they are miles apart from the figures I saw so they must be using a different definition, hence my comment on narratives.

It isn’t about fitting a narrative though, it’s about the truth. Are we able to work out which is the better indicator of how austerity has devastated the poorest in society? Is it % of GDP is it % of income? Only one of them is the better indicator. I have lots to do but I’ll put my view forward later.

(I’m aware I sound like a prick a bit too often in this thread. I’m confident my point is reasoned and reasonable though, even if the way I communicate it leaves plenty to be desired)

[StuartHopkin]

Are we able to work out which is the better indicator of how austerity has devastated the poorest in society?

Bit worried where this question will lead, but I honestly don't know the answer.....

Can you explain how austerity has devastated the poorest in society?

[kukushkin88]

Are we able to work out which is the better indicator of how austerity has devastated the poorest in society?

Bit worried where this question will lead, but I honestly don't know the answer.....

Can you explain how austerity has devastated the poorest in society?

All of my posts yesterday/this morning in this thread are about it. Don’t worry about where the questions will lead. It will lead to the Office for National Stats, the BBC website, maybe the FT/The Times/Guardian and worst case The New Statesman.

[kukushkin88]

Are we able to work out which is the better indicator of how austerity has devastated the poorest in society?

Bit worried where this question will lead, but I honestly don't know the answer.....

Can you explain how austerity has devastated the poorest in society?

All of my posts yesterday/this morning in this thread are about it. Don’t worry about where the questions will lead. It will lead to the Official for National Stats, the BBC website, maybe the FT/The Times/Guardian and worst case The New Statesman.

and maybe the odd contribution from here:

https://fullfact.org

We shoud all be mindful of potential bias though, even in a website that calls itself ‘FullFact.org’

[MANTIS01]

Household debt is just exactly as it sounds, combine all debts of every member of a household. There seem to be two approved comparisons, as a  percentage of GDP and as a percentage of income. It seems percentage of income is the one which will reveal if there’s a problem in the poorest sections of society.

I think you meant this one, it’s % of GDP:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/households-debt-to-gdp

The Guardian article is interesting, I recommend reading it.

I agree.  The last article you posted was using a personal deficit metric though which is different.  Depending on what I pick I can fit most narratives I want.

That’s cool, ‘a number of narratives’ might be better than ‘most narratives’ , there is just the one reality at the end of the day. Let’s get back to trying to work out what it is..... Show me a metric that suggests Austerity was a good idea. It’ll probably need to contradict the idea that a massive chunk of the debt has been passed to Britain’s poorest people in order to be compelling. For Rick, we’ll leave the unnecessary deaths out of it.

Whether austerity was a good or bad idea is another question.  The point is household debt to GDP was higher in 2010 than it is now so I don’t think it is relevant in analysing if austerity has been a success or not.  The answer to tha austerity question in my view is that it hasn’t been a success but I don’t think household debt figures in that analysis (or a slowing in life expectancy growth for that matter as there are many lifestyle variables).  In fact I’m not sure where the new statesman figures come from as they are miles apart from the figures I saw so they must be using a different definition, hence my comment on narratives.

I’m aware I sound like a prick a bit too often

Nailed!

[TightEnd]

Brexit’s most tangible disaster and Project Fear’s most lurid poster-child, at last drily reported and confirmed in the government’s own ink: grounded aircraft.

http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2018/09/26/now-even-the-government-admits-it-no-deal-would-ground-our-a

[TightEnd]

anyone see Labour's party political broadcast yesterday?

i thought it was extremely astute, appealing to leave voters without once mentioning Leave

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/09/labour-s-latest-party-political-broadcast-laser-targeted-small-towns

[ripple11]

Brexit’s most tangible disaster and Project Fear’s most lurid poster-child, at last drily reported and confirmed in the government’s own ink: grounded aircraft.

http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2018/09/26/now-even-the-government-admits-it-no-deal-would-ground-our-a

Kids Easter hols start on 28th March ....so good for the Tunnel, Ferries and the UK tourist industry