Tinker on.

[Tal]

looking forward to tal posting a picture of a Y reg nissan cherry on his way to work tomorrow morning!

Some of us dream of Y Reg Nissan Cherries.

Oh go on then...

Click to see full-size image.

[DungBeetle]

If Bloom thought Leicester had as much as a 0.05% chance of winning the Premier League this season, he would have blasted the bookmakers so hard, they wouldn't just be making gloomy profits warnings, they would be putting up the shutters.

He didn't because 5000/1 was a bad price.

And the fact they are now 66% to win it, doesn't mean it was a good value, it means they have been lucky.

Can that be true Camel?  Results orientated but if we had a 20 field horse race and a 5000-1 shot was still cruising with one fence to jump and was odds on in running can it possibly not have been value at the outset?  Surely the actual performance shows that it was vastly under rated at the outset compared to the shorter horses in the field?

[kukushkin88]

We can't abandon the rules about being results oriented just because this example is an extreme one. They were never a good bet at 5000-1, it's just a number that was assigned to to event that basically couldn't happen. The fact that it might now happen is much less relevant than you'd think. Again I'd recommend reading Taleb's Fooled by Randomness.

[TightEnd]

I am getting a bit fed up of this to be honest

In the last few pages we are told

- its randomness
- have been very lucky
- abnormally low shots converted ratio by all opponents
- perfect storm with the top 4 all underperforming

while i am sure all these are factors lets face facts

over the last 38 games, last season and this we have 85 points

We've lost three times. If this were Arsenal's side of 15 years ago or Ferguson's United they'd be lauded for it, not called lucky

We are 12 points clear of any other side over 38 games

With a squad assembled at a tenth of the cost of any top other four side 2013 to date


It can be as random, lucky as you like, its a magnificent managerial, coaching and scouting achievement off the pitch and superbly executed on it

and this will be the case if we finish 1st or 2nd.

[Tal]

I read all this this morning and all I could think was "thank goodness this isn't the Liverpool thread".

[DungBeetle]

We can't abandon the rules about being results oriented just because this example is an extreme one. They were never a good bet at 5000-1, it's just a number that was assigned to to event that basically couldn't happen. The fact that it might now happen is much less relevant than you'd think. Again I'd recommend reading Taleb's Fooled by Randomness.

I may be missing the point, but let's say you strip out all the luck factors like lack of injuries, other teams underperforming and ref decisions.  I don't actually think they've had excessive luck by the way but just to make a point if we stripped those out they still come, what 3rd/4th?  Surely that means at the start they were mispriced at 5000-1 compared to say, Liverpool?  Even if the luck is removed they are still in the mix and never a 5000-1 shot?

[DungBeetle]

And if we are saying "5000-1 is just a number assigned to something that basically can't happen", surely if it DOES happen then by definition the price is wrong if they are pricing it on the basis of an impossibility?  They were wrong.  It was possible.

[kukushkin88]

And if we are saying "5000-1 is just a number assigned to something that basically can't happen", surely if it DOES happen then by definition the price is wrong if they are pricing it on the basis of an impossibility?  They were wrong.  It was possible.

I should have said can't reasonably be foreseen. Which is of course quite different, my mistake. I'm happy to say no more and enjoy what is clearly an incredible achievement.

[nirvana]

I don't know what's difficult to understand. Leicester achievement laudable but irrespective of TV money and leveller playing fields. Irrespective of great scouting, great management etc it was an abso pipe dream at the start of the season and will be at the start of next. If they are measured over 3 seasons they won't look so amazo

. All kinda irrelevant because they are gonna win it and that's all that really matters

Sensitive Leicester fans will have to wait for people to marvel at what a fine footballing side they are

[DungBeetle]

I don't know what's difficult to understand. Leicester achievement laudable but irrespective of TV money and leveller playing fields. Irrespective of great scouting, great management etc it was an abso pipe dream at the start of the season and will be at the start of next. If they are measured over 3 seasons they won't look so amazo

. All kinda irrelevant because they are gonna win it and that's all that really matters

Sensitive Leicester fans will have to wait for people to marvel at what a fine footballing side they are

Of course it was unlikely -  do you think anyone is actually saying otherwise?  As for Leicester wanting people to marvel at their fine football I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone say that so no idea where you get that from.

Leicester are just getting the same treatment that any unfashionable team does when it gets some success.  You might look down your nose at them and give them a pat on the head, but at the end of the day Leicester get the job done, whereas Arsenal crumble every time they face an obstacle.

 

[nirvana]

I don't know what's difficult to understand. Leicester achievement laudable but irrespective of TV money and leveller playing fields. Irrespective of great scouting, great management etc it was an abso pipe dream at the start of the season and will be at the start of next. If they are measured over 3 seasons they won't look so amazo

. All kinda irrelevant because they are gonna win it and that's all that really matters

Sensitive Leicester fans will have to wait for people to marvel at what a fine footballing side they are

Of course it was unlikely -  do you think anyone is actually saying otherwise?  As for Leicester wanting people to marvel at their fine football I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone say that so no idea where you get that from.

Leicester are just getting the same treatment that any unfashionable team does when it gets some success.  You might look down your nose at them and give them a pat on the head, but at the end of the day Leicester get the job done, whereas Arsenal crumble every time they face an obstacle.

  

You speak the truth in terms of the recent past, but on account of the longer past - ima ruffle their hair, patronise them and say well done plucky Leicester a lot

[Doobs]

For a bit of balance, here is Colin Trainor again.

http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/news/news/2015-16/apr/010416-colin-trainor-on-arsenal-expected-goals.html

3 weeks ago, Arsenal were running bad and were the best team. Now it is Spurs.  But note in the old (3 weeks is a long time in football?) article, Leicester "should" be just 1 point behind Spurs and were only 4 expected points behnd Arsenal.  

I'd also point out that Leicester are top of the current form table I just saw (last 8 matches).

I just think a bit of this is people forgetting Spurs started fairly poorly this season, and are judging Spurs on how they are now.  Right now, Spurs are likely the best team in the premier league and maybe it was Arsenal 3 weeks ago too.  Over the season, Leicester have been very close to the best team and the points totals they have over the last 12 months suggest strongly that they really have been the best team over that period.  Even right now, you'd be pushed to claim they weren't playing top 4 football.  Spurs are probably best rigght now, but are Arsenal and Man City really any better?  And who else is playing as well as Leicester.

I would also suggest that Spurs have only just overtaken Leicester in goals scored in the last month or so.  Previously Leicester were ahead.

If people have looked at all this and concluded Leicester were rightfully 5000/1 shots this year then they want to look at their model, because it really isn't working very well.  I loved the better to be lucky than good article too.  So your outliers consist of Leicester this year and Mourinho's Chelsea, and you don't worry about a problem with your model?  Presumably Mourinho has just fluked his success too, and there wasn't any solid defence or a decent keeper behind that poor shots to conversion ratio.  Mourinho didn't so much park the bus as just left it there by chance each time.

Finally, advanced statistics my arse.  

Maybe Leicester have had the rub of the green at times, but that is going to be the case with any premier league winners, but they absolutely deserve to be chalenging.  

The "model" is why Bloom owns a football club, a yacht and a private jet.

Trying to outguess the model is why us punters are driving around in Y reg Nissan Cherries.

The "model" is right so many more times than its wrong that I would suggest when its wrong on the scale it has been in letting the winners of the Premier League go off at 5000/1, it's because Leicester have been monumentally and undeniably lucky.

Stats bomb are not Tony Bloom.  There is not one "model".  Just because Tony Bloom's model produces lots of good bets, doesn't make it always right.  I am not sure if stats bomb have a model or if it is a profitable one.  They seem to be big on theories.

FWIW on the extremes is where stats models tend to break.  Modelling these extremes is something we do outside the standard mathematical models.

[rinswun]

I don't know what's difficult to understand. Leicester achievement laudable but irrespective of TV money and leveller playing fields. Irrespective of great scouting, great management etc it was an abso pipe dream at the start of the season and will be at the start of next. If they are measured over 3 seasons they won't look so amazo

. All kinda irrelevant because they are gonna win it and that's all that really matters

Sensitive Leicester fans will have to wait for people to marvel at what a fine footballing side they are

Of course it was unlikely -  do you think anyone is actually saying otherwise?  As for Leicester wanting people to marvel at their fine football I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone say that so no idea where you get that from.

Leicester are just getting the same treatment that any unfashionable team does when it gets some success.  You might look down your nose at them and give them a pat on the head, but at the end of the day Leicester get the job done, whereas Arsenal crumble every time they face an obstacle.

 

Touch premature?

[TightEnd]

I don't know what's difficult to understand. Leicester achievement laudable but irrespective of TV money and leveller playing fields. Irrespective of great scouting, great management etc it was an abso pipe dream at the start of the season and will be at the start of next. If they are measured over 3 seasons they won't look so amazo

. All kinda irrelevant because they are gonna win it and that's all that really matters

Sensitive Leicester fans will have to wait for people to marvel at what a fine footballing side they are

Of course it was unlikely -  do you think anyone is actually saying otherwise?  As for Leicester wanting people to marvel at their fine football I'm not sure I've ever seen anyone say that so no idea where you get that from.

Leicester are just getting the same treatment that any unfashionable team does when it gets some success.  You might look down your nose at them and give them a pat on the head, but at the end of the day Leicester get the job done, whereas Arsenal crumble every time they face an obstacle.

 

Touch premature?

get the job done so far.

4 games to go.

[George2Loose]

Ignore the haters Tighty. This is British culture. Build our heroes up- knock them straight back down