Tinker on.

[POWWWWWWWW]

none at all

the club bonus scheme maxxed out at a top ten finish this season. i dare day the owners might sweeten it after the event

last year the squad received £250,000 a man for staying up

some of the clauses i am aware of, secondhand, are

- Kante £20m release clause

- Vardy was £500,000 one off bonus to be capped by England.

- Demarai Gray has a smaller contractual bonus if he is capped while at the club

- Ulloa has a bonus for double digit PL goals

- Huth has a clean sheets bonus!

Ouch

[TightEnd]

none at all

the club bonus scheme maxxed out at a top ten finish this season. i dare day the owners might sweeten it after the event

last year the squad received £250,000 a man for staying up

some of the clauses i am aware of, secondhand, are

- Kante £20m release clause

- Vardy was £500,000 one off bonus to be capped by England.

- Demarai Gray has a smaller contractual bonus if he is capped while at the club

- Ulloa has a bonus for double digit PL goals

- Huth has a clean sheets bonus!

Ouch

Interesting sub-fact

Walsh wanted us to sign Jordan Veretout. Veretout chose Villa over us (sometimes you need a bit of luck as a player, or not), so we turned our attentions to Kante. Ranieri needed convincing too, wasn't sure about him.

Took weeks to persuade him to come after that.

[dino1980]

To follow up on rinswun's post a couple of pages back the graph below is reason most analytics experts expect Leicester to regress next season. I hope Leicester win the league but that graph reminds me a bit of the ones that popped up on 2+2 when the Absolute Superusers got rumbled.

Cliffs: Since the turn of the year Leicester's opponent's have scored just 3.19% of their shots (league average is 9.5%, anything below 7% or above 12.5% has been proven to be unsustainable over a large sample size)
The odds or that occurring is roughly 300/1
Link to full article: http://www.michaelbertin.com/its-better-to-be-lucky-than-good-but-its-even-better-to-be-lucky-and-good/

[dino1980]

Just stating the facts isn't it?

All of the above combining together like that is very unlikely Leicester have taken advantage of it well but it won't happen again

Yeah.  But it's the sneering way it is done "before your teams go direct next season" blah, blah, blah.  It's like the media when Watford came 2nd in 1982.   Why does he think Spurs won't revert to their normal standard next season?  Think it's because he finds the spurs style "acceptable".

Maybe he does I don't know. The spurs style is more sustainable than Leicesters would be my guess

There are a few reasons that those in the analytics community expect the performance of Spurs to me more sustainable but this paragraph sums it up:

The increase in Tottenham’s performance levels from last season to this are so extreme that there is a solid argument that Pochettino has improved Tottenham to a greater degree than Claudio Ranieri has improved Leicester. Aspects of Leicester’s success have been built from a remarkable sequence of beneficial skews: first scoring at an extremely high and unsustainable rate then following it up with a rate of goal prevention at a similarly high and unsustainable rate. Their underlying performance metrics peg them as a Europa League challenger and reversion to that level, if not lower, seems almost certain for next season. That is not a slight on their achievements but the context is there.  In contrast, Tottenham have built their challenge differently; by enhancing both their attack and defence and moving both their outputs and methods from the lowly levels of 2014-15 to genuine league challenging levels.  In any season this Tottenham side would likely be residing in the top four, whereas it seems that Leicester have found a perfect storm only in this season, their chance to repeat is slim.

Full article: http://statsbomb.com/2016/03/have-pochettino-and-tottenham-made-the-leap/

[Doobs]

For a bit of balance, here is Colin Trainor again.

http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/news/news/2015-16/apr/010416-colin-trainor-on-arsenal-expected-goals.html

3 weeks ago, Arsenal were running bad and were the best team. Now it is Spurs.  But note in the old (3 weeks is a long time in football?) article, Leicester "should" be just 1 point behind Spurs and were only 4 expected points behnd Arsenal. 

I'd also point out that Leicester are top of the current form table I just saw (last 8 matches).

I just think a bit of this is people forgetting Spurs started fairly poorly this season, and are judging Spurs on how they are now.  Right now, Spurs are likely the best team in the premier league and maybe it was Arsenal 3 weeks ago too.  Over the season, Leicester have been very close to the best team and the points totals they have over the last 12 months suggest strongly that they really have been the best team over that period.  Even right now, you'd be pushed to claim they weren't playing top 4 football.  Spurs are probably best rigght now, but are Arsenal and Man City really any better?  And who else is playing as well as Leicester.

I would also suggest that Spurs have only just overtaken Leicester in goals scored in the last month or so.  Previously Leicester were ahead.

If people have looked at all this and concluded Leicester were rightfully 5000/1 shots this year then they want to look at their model, because it really isn't working very well.  I loved the better to be lucky than good article too.  So your outliers consist of Leicester this year and Mourinho's Chelsea, and you don't worry about a problem with your model?  Presumably Mourinho has just fluked his success too, and there wasn't any solid defence or a decent keeper behind that poor shots to conversion ratio.  Mourinho didn't so much park the bus as just left it there by chance each time.

Finally, advanced statistics my arse.   

Maybe Leicester have had the rub of the green at times, but that is going to be the case with any premier league winners, but they absolutely deserve to be chalenging. 

[horseplayer]

Click to see full-size image.

[arbboy]

Click to see full-size image.

Wenger out.  Pulis as ever massively over achieving year in year out. 

[arbboy]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/36106596

I would have happily bet Huth at 1/10 to make this team ahead of Morgan.  I am gob smacked Huth wasn't in the player of the year debate.  For him to miss this team is a joke.  Morgan has lived off Huth all year long surely?  Overweight/over achieving championship centre half who just landed in the right place at the right time surely?

[The Camel]

For a bit of balance, here is Colin Trainor again.

http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/news/news/2015-16/apr/010416-colin-trainor-on-arsenal-expected-goals.html

3 weeks ago, Arsenal were running bad and were the best team. Now it is Spurs.  But note in the old (3 weeks is a long time in football?) article, Leicester "should" be just 1 point behind Spurs and were only 4 expected points behnd Arsenal.  

I'd also point out that Leicester are top of the current form table I just saw (last 8 matches).

I just think a bit of this is people forgetting Spurs started fairly poorly this season, and are judging Spurs on how they are now.  Right now, Spurs are likely the best team in the premier league and maybe it was Arsenal 3 weeks ago too.  Over the season, Leicester have been very close to the best team and the points totals they have over the last 12 months suggest strongly that they really have been the best team over that period.  Even right now, you'd be pushed to claim they weren't playing top 4 football.  Spurs are probably best rigght now, but are Arsenal and Man City really any better?  And who else is playing as well as Leicester.

I would also suggest that Spurs have only just overtaken Leicester in goals scored in the last month or so.  Previously Leicester were ahead.

If people have looked at all this and concluded Leicester were rightfully 5000/1 shots this year then they want to look at their model, because it really isn't working very well.  I loved the better to be lucky than good article too.  So your outliers consist of Leicester this year and Mourinho's Chelsea, and you don't worry about a problem with your model?  Presumably Mourinho has just fluked his success too, and there wasn't any solid defence or a decent keeper behind that poor shots to conversion ratio.  Mourinho didn't so much park the bus as just left it there by chance each time.

Finally, advanced statistics my arse.  

Maybe Leicester have had the rub of the green at times, but that is going to be the case with any premier league winners, but they absolutely deserve to be chalenging.  

The "model" is why Bloom owns a football club, a yacht and a private jet.

Trying to outguess the model is why us punters are driving around in Y reg Nissan Cherries.

The "model" is right so many more times than its wrong that I would suggest when its wrong on the scale it has been in letting the winners of the Premier League go off at 5000/1, it's because Leicester have been monumentally and undeniably lucky.

[The Camel]

If Bloom thought Leicester had as much as a 0.05% chance of winning the Premier League this season, he would have blasted the bookmakers so hard, they wouldn't just be making gloomy profits warnings, they would be putting up the shutters.

He didn't because 5000/1 was a bad price.

And the fact they are now 66% to win it, doesn't mean it was a good value, it means they have been lucky.

[arbboy]

looking forward to tal posting a picture of a Y reg nissan cherry on his way to work tomorrow morning!

[Marky147]

looking forward to tal posting a picture of a Y reg nissan cherry on his way to work tomorrow morning!

The last motor I owned was a Y

[arbboy]

looking forward to tal posting a picture of a Y reg nissan cherry on his way to work tomorrow morning!

The last motor I owned was a Y

My current motor ain't much newer!  haha!  Probably worth about as much as a Y reg Cherry as well the state it is in.

[Marky147]

looking forward to tal posting a picture of a Y reg nissan cherry on his way to work tomorrow morning!

The last motor I owned was a Y

My current motor ain't much newer!  haha!  Probably worth about as much as a Y reg Cherry as well the state it is in.

I'd have probably gotten more for a punnet of cherries, when I chopped it in for a lease, lol.

[Tal]

looking forward to tal posting a picture of a Y reg nissan cherry on his way to work tomorrow morning!

Some of us dream of Y Reg Nissan Cherries.


Edit: oh go on then...

g