Rate my shares

[doubleup]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/marketreport/12038090/OPEC-meeting-aftershock-sends-oil-majors-into-the-red.html

However, while shares in BP also slipped, analysts at Canaccord Genuity attempted to reassure investors that the oil major is “equipped to weather the storm”. While the broker anticipates 2016 will be “another tough year” for the industry, it is attracted to BP due to its “leading free cashflow generation over the next few years”, compared with its peers.

Analysts believe BP can sustain its dividend through 2017, and that the group has restructured and simplified its business since the Gulf of Mexico oil spill in 2010.

[tikay]

I don't know anything about shares but a friend has advised me on buying some in UKOG. Apparently an announcement will be made in the next few days about an EU approval of drilling and they'll shoot up.

Morning Timothy.

Sorry for the late reply.

Please don't be buying these sort of shares based on tips like that - ever.

If they were to test positive for reasonable flow levels, one thing is 100% guaranteed - those "in the know" would know long before we would.   

I'm not saying it is, but this is typical of a classic ramp & sell story.

It's a penny stock, too, so spreads are probably higher than normal, & liquidity is thin.

There's a page of UKOG chat here....

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:LSE:UKOG&display=discussion

The share price was bouncing around last week, too. Only fractions of a penny, but in % terms, big swings.

 https://www.google.co.uk/?gws_rd=ssl#q=ukog+share+price


 
I may be completely wrong, but typically, steer clear of this sort of stuff.

All IMO, of course.

[tikay]

Hope I have not over-stated the case there - any up to date experts got a view?

[doubleup]

Seemed a bit of an odd story as the company seems to be concentrating on conventional UK production assets (not fracking), so I can't see what the EU would be approving?

Anyway still in the world of oil I've gone in for BP at 345, so lets hope the Saudis crack before I do.

The other sector that's been crushed are the miners - any bargains to be had there?

[DMorgan]

I do some proprietary trading work for a small-ish investment firm and the boss has been holding UKOG for some time and is very bullish about the stock. I mainly trade forex so I don't have another opinion to offer on this particular stock but as with all forms of gambling, nothing is too risky if you stake correctly.

AIM stocks are not inherently more risky than any other type of stock, they are just more prone to error by investors. Making position size mistakes on trades involving blue chip stocks isn't a huge deal, spreads are tight and mistakes can be rectified cheaply but with the volatility of AIM stocks you're going to get found out a lot faster if you're taking stabs in the dark. Just like everything else if you do your homework, factor in worst case scenarios and therefore stake correctly there are some great spots to be found on the AIM market, but its important to have realistic expectations in terms of growth.

[TightEnd]

on AIM stuff, you have consider that if you get it wrong, you are often stuck. there won't be a ready two way market to get out when you want to get out

treat any investment there as pure speculative capital

[RickBFA]

Went to an investment presentation yesterday and they were talking about economic cycles, the investment clock and that type of stuff.

What was interesting is that in the phase of the cycle that is coming, commodities have been the best performing asset class historically. We might be a little bit of time away from that but although commodities have suffered horrendously over the last 2-3 years we know that things will turn. Almost everything in life is cyclical.

[TightEnd]

wasn't there a big boom in commodities due to a one off demand from china etc as it went from third world infrastructure to first world?

once the tiger economies began to slow and demand for the commodities fell the bust soon followed

so its its own industry cycle?

[RickBFA]

wasn't there a big boom in commodities due to a one off demand from china etc as it went from third world infrastructure to first world?

once the tiger economies began to slow and demand for the commodities fell the bust soon followed

so its its own industry cycle?

I think they back tested all asset classes from 1970 onwards.

There are pretty clear patterns when investing in bonds, equities, cash and commodities (or weighing investment portfolios more heavily towards certain asset classes) are most effective.

Usually in the recovery stage it is equities which perform better, the over heat stage is when commodities usually perform best statistically

Not of this is new, its just interesting to see it back tested and analysed.

 

[4KSuited]

In BP's 3rd Quarter update, they made forward projections based on Brent oil priced at $60 p/b. At the recent OPEC meeting, the Saudis refused to cap production, and it's estimated that the price p/b will fall to around $20. It's widely accepted that the Saudis are trying to render the production of shale gas in the US cost-ineffective, as it's been the first real threat to them in the past 60 years. Oil producers all over the world are simply collateral damage in this game.

In addition, whilst BP may want us to believe that there's an end in sight on the costs of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, I think there's a fair bit more to come on this.

Personally, I'd leave commodities well enough alone atm, but esp oil. At least until there's a lot less volatility in the market. Unless you're interested in shorting.

[Doobs]

on AIM stuff, you have consider that if you get it wrong, you are often stuck. there won't be a ready two way market to get out when you want to get out

treat any investment there as pure speculative capital

Agree completely, AIM stocks are inherently more risky than blue chips.  Not only is hard to get out when they collapse, the lack of oversight means that more of them will collapse.  I do know a couple of people who very much specialise down there, but they do some heavy research into their selections and don't just listen to the nutters on advfn and iii. 

Growth stocks are inherently more risky than value stocks (ie those with lower/zero dividends are more risky than those with bigger than average dividends).   

I also agree on the commodity boom, it was massive for a long time, and now isn't, so it is hard to believe there is another big upcycle coming soon.

[doubleup]

Thanks for the advise Tikay.


This is the latest message I got about them shares.

"Oil price is dragging them down at the minute. Waiting for flow testing of HH now and approval for the Isle of Wight IOW licence. IOW due before Xmas and flow test by 9th Jan. It's all still looking good for a decent rise between now and end of Jan"

The guy giving me this info has bought £20k worth and is adamant they'll get to 3p minimum and if things go right possibly 10p.
After a little thought I decided to buy just £2k worth thinking if things don't work out then I might loose £500 or maybe £1000 which won't be the best of feelings, but if I don't buy and they do reach 10p I'll be even more pissed wishing I did.

So this

Apparently an announcement will be made in the next few days about an EU approval of drilling and they'll shoot up.

was bollocks then?  (just saying)

[DMorgan]

I don't know anything about shares but a friend has advised me on buying some in UKOG. Apparently an announcement will be made in the next few days about an EU approval of drilling and they'll shoot up.

Trading news releases doesn't tend to work like this in practice, especially when there is information in the public domain already. Buy the rumour, sell the news. If you're looking to catch a big short term price movement then you're going to have much greater profit potential taking a short trade when the news doesn't live up to the hype. All IMO of course

http://www.davemanuel.com/investor-dictionary/buy-the-rumor-sell-the-news/

[Rupert]

What prices did you buy at so we can rate them pls

[Doobs]

What prices did you buy at so we can rate them pls

Surely that is irrelevant to what we should rate them at today?