The Next President of the United States

[MintTrav]

The Great Communicator

Reagan's concession speech at the 76 Convention. He wasn't supposed to speak, but Ford acknowledged him and the delegates called for him and wouldn't stop until he came to the platform. He gave an off-the-cuff speech that was very short but so powerful it not only thrilled the crowd, but also sent them home with a terrible feeling that they had messed up.

[nirvana]

Hey MT. I'd be really interested in yr opinion on the likelihood of Trump winning again in 2020. I don't know the US system well enough to understand if any threat is as likely to come from the GOP as much as from the Dems. Anyway you can get 66/1 on Eminem so I might go for that as an outsider

I would say he is a slight favourite against the field. His re-election fund has already raised over $100m, which gives him a big advantage, and voters seriously favour incumbents anyway.

His own party is a threat - not so much that they made topple him (though they could), but that they could weaken him so much that he loses the General Election as a result. There have been three proper attempts to dislodge the sitting President from within his party in recent times. Ronald Reagan challenged Ford in 1976, Ted Kennedy stood against Carter in 1980 and Pat Buchanan took on Bush 41 in 1992. Buchanan didn't get close, but Reagan and Kennedy took their challenges all the way to the Convention, and Reagan only lost by a whisker. Although they held off their internal challengers, all three Presidents went on to be beaten in the General Election.

It's not impossible to dislodge a President from within. Johnson withdrew from the race in 1968 cos he could see that it wasn't going his way and Reagan probably would have beaten Ford if it wasn't for a tactical error at the Convention. After the result, he gave a masterful speech that resulted in many delegates concluding they had voted for the wrong candidate.

Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Mitt Romney, Rand Paul, Mike Pence and Paul Ryan have all said they won't challenge Trump. They would probably all lose to him anyway. Jeff Flake, Ben Sasse and Bob Corker want to have a go, but it's hard to see them doing well. One Republican who I think could beat him is Nikki Haley, but she has also said she's not going for it. So that really only leaves one person who has a chance of being successful and wants to run - John Kasich. He put up a good showing last time and is still hugely popular and respected in his State, the Party and the nation. If Trump struggles against Kasich, it could signal the end of the road even if he wins.

All this is assuming he runs. House Committees will be Democrat-dominated from now on, and they could start investigations into all sorts, including Trump's personal finances, so his position might be much weaker by 2020. There is also speculation that he may decide he has achieved most of what he set out to do, or that it's just not worth continuing to put himself and the family through it all for years to come.

Thanks for that, I guess the last paragraph could be a real possibility - it might not be so much fun when he can barely get any legislative programmes through, at least not any controversial ones.

Got to do something else but will watch the Reagan speech later - watched a great vid the other day of him making a seemingly off the cuff remark when a loud balloon popped while he was delivering a speech. I'm naive and loved it but later read it was set-up - bit disappointed I learned that later tbf.

[Marky147]

Just tell him only men like Obama can manage 2 terms, and I'm sure he'll run again

[MintTrav]

Just tell him only men like Obama can manage 2 terms, and I'm sure he'll run again

Funnily enough, Obama's Presidency was only the second time that three successive Presidents did two full terms. The third to fifth guys (Thomas Jefferson, James Madison and James Monroe) all did two, but it hadn't happened again and looked like it might never recur until Clinton-GWB-Obama all doubled up. Now we are talking about possibly four doubles in a row for the first time ever.

[DropTheHammer]

If they can vote that dumb-ass Bush into a second term then it wouldn’t surprise me if Trump wins again. Ive seen some noise from him that he’s wanting to run.

[kukushkin88]

The Americans might not think much of someone whose nation voted for Brexit criticising their choice of President.

[nirvana]

The Great Communicator

Reagan's concession speech at the 76 Convention. He wasn't supposed to speak, but Ford acknowledged him and the delegates called for him and wouldn't stop until he came to the platform. He gave an off-the-cuff speech that was very short but so powerful it not only thrilled the crowd, but also sent them home with a terrible feeling that they had messed up.

This is pretty impressive when you've just lost. I'm too young to remember if Carter was a big fav to win anyway and so Reagan securing the nomination in 80 turned out well for him rather than winning the nomination in 76. Also. What was Regan's big error at the convention

[MintTrav]

The Great Communicator

Reagan's concession speech at the 76 Convention. He wasn't supposed to speak, but Ford acknowledged him and the delegates called for him and wouldn't stop until he came to the platform. He gave an off-the-cuff speech that was very short but so powerful it not only thrilled the crowd, but also sent them home with a terrible feeling that they had messed up.

This is pretty impressive when you've just lost. I'm too young to remember if Carter was a big fav to win anyway and so Reagan securing the nomination in 80 turned out well for him rather than winning the nomination in 76. Also. What was Regan's big error at the convention

He named a Northern-Eastern liberal as his running mate in an attempt to balance the ticket and win support from liberal and moderate delegates (those were the days when the Republicans had liberals and the Democrats had conservatives). It backfired - hardly any libs/mods came over, but several key conservatives were aghast and withdrew their support, and the main uncommitted bloc fell in for Ford, giving him a narrow win.


Carter had economic problems in 1980, with high inflation and unemployment, most obvious in queues for petrol, and the Hostage Crisis was also a major drag on his popularity, with Iran blatantly thumbing its nose at the US by refusing to release its citizens. He still had a reasonable lead going into the single Presidential Debate, held a week before the election, but Reagan turned it around in one night, particularly with his closing statement, when he asked the public "Are you better off than you were four years ago?". He won by a landslide.

[nirvana]

I remember the hostage crisis playing out and how diminishing it seemed to be for Carter at the time, especially after the failed rescue attempt.

Following the very dark and grim late 70s, and in my teens, it was easy to be anti Thatcher and anti Reagan out of tribalism more than a strong belief in a set of competing and coherent principles.

Started to view things a little differently from the mid-80s when the summits with Gorbachev began - nothing solved overnight of course but massive steps in the right direction compared with the fear of a major war that people lived with during the 70s. Looking back, I guess he was very much a product of the times and, with hindsight, pretty much the ideal man for the times in terms of starting the process towards the end of the cold war.

[MintTrav]

Paul Manafort invalidated his plea bargain by lying to the FBI and the Mueller Investigation after the PB was agreed, according to papers filed in Court by Mueller yesterday.

Either he thought he could get away with understating his involvements, not taking into account that Mueller knows everything, or there has been contact between the Trump and Manafort teams and the pardon is on.

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/26/politics/paul-manafort-court-filing-russia-investigation/index.html

[MintTrav]

There is a Senate Special Election (effectively a by-election) today in Mississippi and, as always seems to be the case, the Republican candidate has stirred up a controversy with questionable statements. I’m not sure whether say these things cos that’s who they are, or whether it’s a clever way of attracting support from hicks and racists.

Cindy Hyde-Smith was filmed speaking in support of voter suppression and recently casually mentioned public hangings favourably in a State that has a bad history in this regard. It quickly became a huge controversy and she ended up apologising during a debate, though it didn’t help that she was clearly reading it from a prepared text.




Major League Baseball, Walmart, Google and other companies have asked for their donations to be returned. Mainstream Republicans have realised that another Southern State has picked a dodgy candidate and are nowhere to be seen. So who showed up yesterday to gve his support? Yep, you got it in one.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[MintTrav]

Every Vote Counts!

You might think sometimes that your individual vote doesn't count. People in Alaska who thought that and didn't bother to vote have just had a nasty surprise. With 39 out of 40 seats decided in the State House of Representatives, the Republicans have 20 seats and the Democrats have 19, so the final seat is crucial to how the whole State will be run for the foreseeable future.

The election was three weeks ago - so what's the delay?

Well, the count was a tie:

District 1:
Bart LeBon (Republican)       2,661
Kathryn Dodge (Democrat)   2,661

It wasn't a tie to start with, but a few votes were found for the loser, who went ahead. Then a few more were found for both, which tied it up.

A few days later, they had a machine recount. Still a tie.

Then they had a full recount by hand. Still a tie.

The election officials certified all the results, including this one as a tie.

So the State's future was going to be decided by lots.

Then - they found another vote. One vote was discovered in a box for questionable ballots, where it had been placed after being found in a secrecy sleeve on a desk. Now they're not sure whether to count it. It's a vote for the Democrat and the decision will decide the whole future of Alaska's legislation. At a press conference, officials suggested that it's not actually a questioned ballot, but arose from a husband and wife who have the same name, so it looks like it probably will be counted.

The final decision on the uncounted ballot will be announced today and then there will be another full recount. One further twist is that any absentee ballots that are returned by then will be included. Only a tiny proportion of absentee ballots are ever returned, but they tend to be from military, who tend to be conservative and favour Republicans, and there are 60 still outstanding, so the outcome is still in doubt.

Then expect the legal challenges to begin.

Click to see full-size image.

The Uncounted Vote

[Marky147]

It's like a competition between nations, to see who can be the biggest clusterfuck!

[TightEnd]

An excellent piece of writing, reads like a history lesson

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/obituaries/george-hw-bush-41st-president-of-the-united-states-dies-at-94/2018/11/30/42fa2ea2-61e2-11e8-99d2-0d678ec08c2f_story.html

[TightEnd]

The Mueller investigation is closing in on Trump

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/03/trump-mueller-investigation-manafort-cohen?CMP=twt_gu