The Next President of the United States

[MintTrav]

It’s Trump’s first National Security Advisor Mike Flynn’s turn to be sentenced today.

Last night we got to see the FBI’s first interview with him, where he lied on two important points. Such a document would not usually be made public, but this one has come out almost by accident. Flynn’s lawyers suggested recently that the investigators had tricked him into lying, so Mueller supplied the transcript to the court. The judge quickly decided that, as it is court evidence, it is now a public document and ordered it to be released. It shows clearly that, far from being tricked, Flynn was given several opportunities to clarify/amend his statements but persisted with the lies.

The sentencing is likely to be an anti-climax. Mueller has recommended zero prison time as Flynn flipped quickly and has given substantial assistance to the Russian collusion investigation and another unspecified investigation.

[Marky147]

[MintTrav]

So Flynn's sentencing wasn't the matter-of-course event expected.

First, the President tweeted good luck to him, which doesn't seem odd nowadays but would have been a major scandal up til two years ago.

Then the judge unexpectedly laid into him, saying he felt 'disgust' and 'disdain' and that Flynn had "sold his country out" and asking whether he could have been charged with treason.

He also suggested that Flynn would be better off if sentencing was delayed until he has finished helping the investigators, so he can be given full credit. This is so obviously the case that it seems odd that the session was scheduled at this stage. Flynn grabbed it, allowing himself the chance of more credit and maybe also to allow the judge time to cool down.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/18/judge-tells-michael-flynn-you-sold-your-country-out-at-hearing.html

[MintTrav]

Everyone is used to short-handing the Trump-related investigations into the Russian collusion one by Mueller and some other one to do with tax or some such in New York. That ain't it by a long shot. At this point there are 17 investigations running (that we know of):

Investigations by Special Counsel Robert Mueller
- Russian Government’s Election Attack (the Internet Research Agency and GRU Indictments)
- WikiLeaks
- Middle Eastern Influence
- Paul Manafort’s Activity
- Trump Tower Moscow Pproject
- Other Campaign and Transition Contacts with Russia
- Obstruction of Justice

Investigations by the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York
- Campaign Conspiracy and Trump Organization Finances
- Inauguration Funding
- Trump SuperPAC Funding
- Foreign Lobbying

Investigations by the U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia
- Maria Butina and the NRA

Investigations by the U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia
- Elena Alekseevna Khusyaynova
- Turkish Influence

Investigations by New York City, New York State and other State Attorneys General
- Trump Tax Case
- The Trump Foundation
- Trump Organization Emoluments Lawsuit

There is also a mystery investigation from an unknown office that was mentioned but redacted in the Flynn document released. There may be others we are not aware of.

For brief details on each of them - https://www.wired.com/story/mueller-investigation-trump-russia-complete-guide/

[Marky147]

I better send for more popcorn!

Hope to see you in Vegas next summer, so I can buy you a good number of drinks.

This really does make for superb reading, unlike my contribution of SNL and Seth Meyers clips

[Marky147]

General Mattis resigns.

Obv not too pleased with the donald playing on Twitter again.

[Marky147]

Donaldaments...

[Marky147]

[TightEnd]

Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis’s resignation *is* a big deal.

A really big deal.

says

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mattis-leaving-might-be-the-most-important-trump-administration-exit-yet

[Marky147]

Not sure how I missed this one

[TightEnd]

The president is both setting in motion a crisis while undermining the institution that needs to respond to that crisis.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-24/markets-in-crisis-trump-has-damaged-the-fed

[MintTrav]

The president is both setting in motion a crisis while undermining the institution that needs to respond to that crisis.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-24/markets-in-crisis-trump-has-damaged-the-fed

Also, the Stock Market has been falling rapidly for the last couple of months. Trump has wanted to get rid of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for some time but isn’t sure if he can do so and blames Treasury Sec Steve Mnuchin for persuading him to appoint him. Monday saw the biggest Christmas Eve Stock Market fall ever recorded and reports are circulating that Mnuchin himself is now in danger of losing his own job.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-26/stock-market-drop-trump-s-favorite-barometer-is-warning-him

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/25/politics/steven-mnuchin-trump/index.html

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/22/politics/trump-jerome-powell-fire-interest-rate-hike/index.html

[MintTrav]

The Cabinet

As we start a new year, the Administration is in a state of upheaval, as it always seems to be. Over 40% (10 out of 24) Cabinet-level positions have seen a change of occupant in two years, which is more than the last two Presidents incurred in their first four years. Several positions are filled by temporary occupants. Some Departments are led by people who were previously leading industrial lobbyists to them, so must be seen as likely to support the interests of industry rather than consumers, or by people who opposed the Department they now lead.

Nikki Haley (UN), Ryan Zinke (Interior), John Kelly (Chief of Staff) and James Mattis (Defence) cleaned out their desks yesterday. Haley’s job is going to ex Fox News host Heather Nauert, currently working as spokesperson for the State Department. Her lack of experience is again likely to be a problem for the Senate, so expect a difficult confirmation hearing. Zinke has rezoned millions of acres of National Park and National Monument land for coal, oil & gas drilling and mining, finishing with a flourish by enabling drilling in the Alaskan Arctic in his final week. He has been replaced as Interior Secretary on a temporary basis by his deputy, David Bernhardt, who used to be a lobbyist for the oil industry, such is the current state of US politics, so no change in policy is likely. Budget Director Mick Mulvaney will have two full Cabinet-level positions, as he is temporarily taking on the Chief of Staff role while retaining the Budget one.

Probably the most highly-rated member of Trump’s team, James Mattis, is leaving Defence due to policy differences with the President, replaced by lifetime Boeing man Patrick Shanahan, much of it spent running their Defence Division. Meanwhile, former coal industry lobbyist Andrew Wheeler has spent six months so far in ‘temporary’ charge of Environmental Protection.

Jeff Sessions (Attorney Gen) left recently, and Bill Barr, who previously held the job under Bush Snr, has been named as his replacement. He will have to go through the Senate confirmation process, which could take ages, so Matthew Whitaker is covering on a temporary basis. Unfortunately both Barr and Whitaker are widely regarded as being compromised due to previously-expressed views and Whitaker’s suitability is also questioned due to lack of appropriate experience, so one or both may have to stand down.

Trump is thought to be less than impressed with Homeland Security Sec Kirstjen Nielsen and recently said “I want her to get much tougher, and we'll see what happens there". Without her ally/protector Kelly, she is seen as ripe to be eased out soon. And now Treasury Sec Steve Mnuchin is also rumoured to be in the bad books due to the Stock Market collapse, with 2018 being the worst year for a decade, Labour Sec Alex Acosta was in the running for Sessions’ job until his role in signing off a remarkably soft deal for billionaire sex offender Jeffrey Epstein when he was US Attorney for South Florida was publicised at the end of November. He was dropped from consideration and has suddenly come under huge pressure over the last month. He remains as Labour Sec for now but may not ride it out.

Trump’s second Sec of Health is Alex Azar, who was President of the US Division of Eli Lilly and a pharmaceutical lobbyist until shortly before his appointment. Rick Perry continues as Secretary of Energy, despite saying he would abolish the Energy Department when he ran for President.

All four Generals (Mike Flynn, HR McMaster, Kelly & Mattis) and two of the three Goldman Sachs people (Gary Cohn, Dina Powell & Mnuchin) that Trump started with have left. Adding in Rex Tillerson, all of the so-called “adults in the room” have gone. Instead of Trump’s whims on foreign affairs being reined in by traditional players like Haley, Mattis, McMaster and Tillerson, we now have Trumpian believers like John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, while Shanahan and Nauert will probably just implement whatever Trump wants. Trump didn’t do Shanahan (or himself) any favours by bringing forward the date of change by two months in a fit of pique and dropping him into the role without preparation.

Interior, Environment, Health and Defence are now run by people who used to lobby those Departments on behalf of major industries. Education is in a somewhat similar situation. The Boeing-Dept of Defence relationship, in particular, was a concern even before Shanahan’s appointment.

Trump said he would reshape the Cabinet after the mid-terms, but Sessions was the only decision he has made - the others have all been forced on him. Six Cabinet-level positions (including the Chief of Staff, Attorney-General and Defence Secretary) have temporary occupants and at least three others are under threat. One reason for the failure to appoint is the shortage of qualified people who are willing to serve. Bill Barr initially declined the offer to become AG for the second time, but then relented and said he’d do it if they couldn’t find anyone else. Nick Ayers, the Vice-President’s Chief of Staff, turned down an offer to do the same job for Trump. There are several Senators who would make suitable appointees, but Mitch McConnell blocked the White House from raiding them.

Happy New Year.

[Marky147]

So much winning, I bet they're sick of it.

Happy New Year, MintTrav.

[Marky147]

I thought this was a photoshop when I saw it

Click to see full-size image.