Exactly 4 weeks until Iowa. Latest Presidential election odds from Ladbrokes:
http://ow.ly/WBq2A Mint, what do you think of those odds?
Sorry, didn't notice your post. I don't know much about betting but those don't look right to me. Hillary can't be odds-on at this stage. Sanders looks like the best bet there. I'll try it write something a bit fuller later.
I promised to write more about this, but then I went on holiday and one thing and another. Had a lovely time, thanks for asking. Anyway, I may not know much about betting, but I do know that the odds stated were daft. This is an unstable situation and big leaders at the start of election year fail to win their parties' nominations as often as they hold on.
Starting with the Democrats, it is likely that whichever of them gets the nomination will win the Presidency by some distance against any of the Republicans, except maybe Rubio, who might run them close, or maybe Trump, who might cut up rough.
Clinton is not yet a shoo-in, even for the Democrat nomination. She had a huge lead over Sanders at the start of 2016 - pretty much the same lead she had over Obama at the same stage in 2008. However, front-runners fail to win the nomination time after time. Apart from the normal reasons, which could occur (as they did in 2008), Clinton has some particular vulnerabilities:
- Firstly, if Trump is the GOP candidate, it could get rough, as he is likely to dredge up every real or contrived scandal involving either Clinton over the last forty years. A lot of Democrats are already looking at Sanders as a more Trump-proof candidate.
- Secondly, irrespective of who is the Republican nominee, there could be a new scandal, or new life for an existing one. With the Clintons, you can never rule it out. The worst scenario for the party would be for her to win the nomination and then have a scandal emerge between then and November. If there is one, the party would hope for it to come out while they can still choose a different candidate.
- Third, she could have another health scare. Or Bill could have one, which would probably also affect her figures.
In 2008, she was against an unusual opponent. But this time, she is again. Sanders is an outsider, though one on the inside, if that makes any sense. He has been in Congress for ever, but has remained an Independent and only joined the Democrat party a couple of months ago (Nov 2015, I think). He calls himself a Democratic Socialist, which you would think would be enough to end his hopes in the US. He is well regarded for his Senate work, though, and you can find plenty of examples on YouTube of him cutting through the smokescreens and holding bankers and others to account. Last March, he was showing between 2-5% in every poll, with Clinton around 60%. Something happened last Summer, and he started drawing massive crowds, much bigger than anyone else on either side, and his numbers shot up, to a high point around Oct/Nov and though they dropped a little by year-end, they have since recovered. He is now leading in both New Hampshire and Iowa.
Unusually for Hillary, she is not the liberal in this race. Sanders is more liberal on just about everything except gun control, which she may be able to use. You can make a strong argument for either of them, though Clinton has the upper hand. Sanders could do very well in the early Northern white States, but there are a lot of bad States for him in March and he will be in survival mode throughout the whole month. Super Tuesday will be hugely important - Clinton will win big, but the margin will be critical.
Overall, the odds quoted were ridiculous, with Clinton showing as odds-on. I assume Sanders' odds may be a bit shorter now. If you want to back Clinton, I would probably do it straight after New Hampshire (9 Feb), which will be bad for her. For Sanders, possibly after his bad results come in on Super Tuesday (1 Mar), though 8 Mar and 15 Mar should also see poor results for him. I am assuming there that the betting market reacts to good/bad results, but it may be that they anticipate them and factor them into the odds before the elections. I'm sure you know better whether this happens. If someone wants to back Clinton, I would take the bet. Of all the candidates, she is the most likely to win, but she should be more than evens, even without the health/scandal possibilities.