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Author Topic: The Next President of the United States  (Read 449974 times)
TightEnd
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« Reply #90 on: January 24, 2016, 10:06:15 AM »

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538

Thoughts on the state of the GOP race -- and why I've become a lot less skeptical of Trump's chances: http://53eig.ht/1S7wR1c
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DaveShoelace
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« Reply #91 on: January 24, 2016, 10:30:36 AM »

Read this recently on Trump's debating style

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/126589300371/clown-genius

Now starting to think that rather than being a dangerous idiot, Trump is actually an evil genius (in terms of the way he is becoming a contender, not his actual politics).

He is peddling a bunch of easy answers and America, a country where pizza is considered a vegetable, love that. Starting to think the impossible may happen come November.

Tempted to have a bet on him to become President, so I can enjoy a nice steak dinner at a fancy restaurant, before he destroys the planet.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #92 on: January 24, 2016, 11:29:13 AM »

I don't think I would put any bets on Trump for Pres. It now seems possible he could win the nomination, with the party seniors being more anti-Cruz than anti-Trump and potentially holding their nose and supporting him if it is the only way to keep Cruz out. Any of the others could still hit some momentum, though it is hard to pick which one it would be. Many in the party would love Paul Ryan to step in. But, yes, Trump could get the ticket, so that could be a bet.

His real problem is the general election. Outside the Republican party, he has terrible likeability scores and he shows up very poorly in head-to-head polls against both Clinton and Sanders. There is a possibility of him taking the party into a landslide defeat.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html

(ps I think Cruz' H2Hs are overstated in these polls. He also has hugely unfavourable likeability, even within his own party.)
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MintTrav
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« Reply #93 on: January 25, 2016, 01:35:44 PM »

Seven days til Iowa.

Sanders has turned an 18-point deficit in the State in December into an 8-point lead last week and has a 27-point lead in New Hampshire.Clinton is solid in the next State, South Carolina, but a 1-2 loss could start a domino effect.

In the Republican race, Trump has recovered the ground lost to Cruz, turning a 4-point deficit into an 11-point lead in two weeks, with the rest nowhere. There is some suggestion that his gains were amongst those less likely to vote, but it's still impressive.

Republicans are very aware of what happened in 2012, when Santorum won Iowa, despite trailing in single-digit sixth place until two weeks before the caucus. Even on election day, a poll gave him 18%, 5 points behind Romney and 4 behind Ron Paul, but he actually received over 24% of the votes.
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Jimbo82
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« Reply #94 on: January 26, 2016, 03:56:35 AM »

Hilary Clinton - I would bet my life on it
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« Reply #95 on: January 26, 2016, 04:14:01 AM »

Don't go mad, Jimbo... Just pile into the 9/10 with Victor Cheesy


Enjoyed reading those write-ups, MintTrav.

Cheers for taking the time to write them.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #96 on: January 26, 2016, 10:45:43 AM »

"To have doubted Trump is to have given the Republican Party credit...for being able to avoid a potential disaster."

http://53eig.ht/1PgH6PX
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« Reply #97 on: January 26, 2016, 11:24:19 AM »

Five Thirty Eight have started up a weekly podcast on the election.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/elections-podcast-one-week-to-iowa/
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RickBFA
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« Reply #98 on: January 26, 2016, 11:25:40 PM »

 Watched the channel 4 documentary on Trump.

Obviously not his biggest fans :-)

The more you see and read about him, the more you wonder about the sanity of US voters.



« Last Edit: January 26, 2016, 11:35:32 PM by RickBFA » Logged
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« Reply #99 on: January 27, 2016, 04:33:12 AM »

Watched the channel 4 documentary on Trump.

Obviously not his biggest fans :-)

The more you see and read about him, the more you wonder about the sanity of US voters.






Worrying every time I see his price shorten on the front page of Oddschecker Rick.

That said, seeing Hilary odds on doesn't fill me with hope either.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #100 on: January 27, 2016, 03:13:19 PM »

The Republican Race - Trump or Cruz?

Five days to go and Iowa is on a knife-edge. A Fox poll two days ago had Trump 34-23 ahead of Cruz in the State, but a university poll yesterday had him just 31-29 ahead. Cruz is campaigning hard and has a much better ground operation in the State, so Trump spent yesterday in.........New Hampshire. He is well ahead there and there is another week after Iowa before NH, but that's where he was. Maybe he is very confident. He has recovered the lead in Iowa that Cruz nicked a few weeks ago, but victory is far from certain.  

Things do seem to be coming together for Trump, though. The voters, the party leaders and most of Congress are coming on-side. Okay, the latter two groups are not actually on his side so much as anti-Cruz, but they will live with Trump if they have to. This is bad news for Rubio, with party leaders (who would prefer him) seemingly abandoning him for Trump. Trump has also collected some endorsements that should naturally belong to Cruz - Jerry Falwell, Sherriff Joe Arpaio, Sarah Palin - all crazies, but all hugely influential.

The party leaders hate Cruz mainly because he ignored all the established ways of behaving in Congress. He arrived in Washington with an arrogant attitude and refused to serve his time working his way up the party, he insulted everyone in public, told his own leaders that they weren't conservative enough and they were giving Obama and the Democrats an easy ride, he called Senate Majority (ie Republican) Leader Mitch McConnell a "flat-out" liar on the floor of the Senate and he managed to close down government for sixteen days against the wishes of both parties (I still can't figure out how he was able to do that). They regarded his grandstanding as being largely for outside consumption, to make himself appear as the anti-establishment campaigner who was taking on the vested interests in DC, rather than working for the good of the country. There has been tons of stuff said by just about all the senior Republicans about him (and by him about them). Just a flavour:
John McCain: 'You're wrong. You're crazy.' Also called him a 'wacko bird'.
John Boehner (Republican Speaker of the House): 'That jackass'
George W Bush: 'I just don't like the guy.'
Bob Dole: 'I don’t know how he’s going to deal with Congress. Nobody likes him.'

Possibly even more critical is that many in the general body of Republican Congressmen seem to have given up on winning the White House. There are many other elections held the same day as the Presidential one and they are worried about the negative coattail effect that Cruz would have, as the Republicans could lose their majorities in the Senate and maybe even in the House of Representatives (and some are personally at risk for their jobs). They reckon that Cruz alienates people and appeals only to a narrow very conservative element, whereas Trump has more crossover/mainstream appeal and might result in fewer GOP losses. Trump will undoubtedly morph into a liberal as soon as he secures the GOP ticket, and they seem okay with lending the party to him for a few months in order to come out with a better situation after November.

But it's not only anyone-but-Cruz - there are anyone-but-Trump advocates as well. There is a concern that, if Trump takes Iowa, he will pick up NH and will then be unstoppable. Even Cruz has admitted this http://cbn.com/tv/embedplayernews.aspx?bcid=4721418480001 (ever watched Christian Broadcasting Network before?). So it has been suggested that whoever you support, you should vote for Cruz in Iowa, being the only candidate who can keep the race alive.

Rubio/Bush/Kasich/Christie are all pinning their hopes on doing well in New Hampshire, and we should see some drop-outs after that, which will help whichever of them survives, as they are currently splitting the mainstream vote. The best strategy for the mainstream is obvious - they need to agree on a single candidate soon or they are going to lose a bunch of States. One of them would expect to attract the majority of the others' support (and would free Congressmen to come out with endorsements for them). But no-one really knows which of them is best-placed. Paul/Fiorina/Santorum/Huckabee have no chance in New Hampshire and are polling 1-4% in Iowa. Iowa is a Bible-thumping state, so if Santorum or Huckabee can't make an impression there, you have to wonder what is the point. For some reason, Carson is still raking in donations, but his candidacy must be a lost cause. Rubio has received the endorsement of the Des Moines Register, which is worth more than you might think and he is hoping to capitalise. He is the clear third-placed candidate, both in Iowa and nationally but his organisation in Iowa is light, so a surprise on Monday seems unlikely.

Another reason people are not dropping out is the Koch Brothers. They own the second-largest private company in the US and, along with some others, have pledged to spend almost a billion dollars on the election, but no-one knows how much candidates would get each. They summoned Bush, Cruz and Rubio (and Walker) to two beauty-parades in 2015. Paul was at the first but bombed and was dropped from the second. They have since expressed admiration for Fiorina. That kind of funding would put you in the Trump/Bloomberg league and could resuscitate a struggling campaign (paradoxically, Trump hasn't spent much so far as he getting all the publicity anyway).

In other news, Hillary's camp has apparently concluded that Trump is nailed on for the Republican ticket and has commenced 'research' on his past activities. Really. I'd have thought that everything would already be known about someone like him, but things do come up......
« Last Edit: January 27, 2016, 03:19:06 PM by MintTrav » Logged
MintTrav
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« Reply #101 on: January 27, 2016, 05:15:32 PM »

Cruz tried to delay the progress of the Obama's healthcare reforms in 2013, although it was pointless, as he couldn't force a vote because he didn't have the support of most of his party, who were in a hurry to agree the Federal budget. He said he would continue to speak until he could no longer stand and ended up speaking for 21 hours. The rules allow allies to help by interrupting with questions, which can turn into mini-speeches within a speech, but he has to remain there even when he's not speaking to retain the floor. Now Cruz is a hell of a speaker - he won both the US National Debating Championship and the North American Debating Championship when he was at Princeton, but staying on topic for that long is obviously very difficult, and there are several bizarre sections involving subjects such as burgers, Duck Dynasty, Ashton Kutcher and an impersonation of Darth Vader, but none as strange as when he incorporated a bedtime story for his children into the speech. This was supposed to be a discussion on healthcare reform. Politics is mad sometimes.

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TightEnd
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« Reply #102 on: January 28, 2016, 11:05:26 AM »

thought this was interesting

movement of candidtates through the hustings

 Click to see full-size image.
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« Reply #103 on: January 29, 2016, 12:56:09 AM »

Trump is called a Wazzock by a British MP to much confusion on the other side of the pond.

 Click to see full-size image.
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« Reply #104 on: January 29, 2016, 10:22:18 AM »

 Click to see full-size image.


Such a strange lineup shot from last night's debate. Paul seems to have left his proper shoes behind and had to wear some Hush Puppies instead. Christie has eaten so much he can't close his jacket. Carson is wearing clown shoes.Cruz and Rubio are doing the Osborne stand. Bush is trying to break out a candidate cliché pose but doing it badly, and that guy who joins in football team photos has slipped onto the end unnoticed.

In shock news, Bush won big while Rubio and Cruz were under pressure. Christie also had a good night.

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