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Author Topic: The Next President of the United States  (Read 664972 times)
DaveShoelace
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« Reply #105 on: January 29, 2016, 10:29:56 AM »

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Such a strange lineup shot from last night's debate. Paul seems to have left his proper shoes behind and had to wear some Hush Puppies instead. Christie has eaten so much he can't close his jacket. Carson is wearing clown shoes.Cruz and Rubio are doing the Osborne stand. Bush is trying to break out a candidate cliché pose but doing it badly, and that guy who joins in football team photos has slipped onto the end unnoticed.

In shock news, Bush won big while Rubio and Cruz were under pressure. Christie also had a good night.



Was the absence of Trump like a big elephant in the room? Did they talk about him at all?

Feels like potentially a masterful powerplay for him not to be there if he can still make it about him.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #106 on: January 29, 2016, 11:08:58 AM »

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Such a strange lineup shot from last night's debate. Paul seems to have left his proper shoes behind and had to wear some Hush Puppies instead. Christie has eaten so much he can't close his jacket. Carson is wearing clown shoes.Cruz and Rubio are doing the Osborne stand. Bush is trying to break out a candidate cliché pose but doing it badly, and that guy who joins in football team photos has slipped onto the end unnoticed.

In shock news, Bush won big while Rubio and Cruz were under pressure. Christie also had a good night.



Was the absence of Trump like a big elephant in the room? Did they talk about him at all?

Feels like potentially a masterful powerplay for him not to be there if he can still make it about him.

It overshadowed everything. The very first question was about "the elephant not in the room", as Megyn Kelly put it. Cruz did a funny impersonation - "I'm a maniac, and everyone on this stage is stupid, fat and ugly, and Ben, you're a terrible surgeon."
Trump managed what frontrunners always want, which is avoid the possibility of looking bad because the others set about you or you commiting a major gaffe yourself. HIs alternative event got more airtime on the non-Fox networks than the debate and he dominated Google searches all night.

http://www.vox.com/2016/1/28/10866312/donald-trump-won-the-debate
http://www.vox.com/2016/1/29/10866528/republican-debate-fox-news-winners-losers
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Simon Galloway
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« Reply #107 on: January 29, 2016, 11:14:08 AM »


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MintTrav
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« Reply #108 on: January 29, 2016, 11:22:37 AM »

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Speakers in the junior debate show Bush the correct way to do a clichéd candidate pose.
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DaveShoelace
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« Reply #109 on: January 29, 2016, 11:36:12 AM »

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Speakers in the junior debate show Bush the correct way to do a clichéd candidate pose.

He ain't got shit on the UK, makes me proud to be British I tells ya

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AndrewT
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« Reply #110 on: January 29, 2016, 02:10:40 PM »

Donald Trump redubbed as if he was on Eastenders.

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TightEnd
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« Reply #111 on: February 01, 2016, 10:55:23 AM »

Last 10 Iowa Republican polls via pollsterpolls.

Latest odds: 1/2 Trump 2/1 Cruz 8/1 Rubio

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AndrewT
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« Reply #112 on: February 01, 2016, 03:09:59 PM »

This explains a lot about Trumpmania.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/01/iowa-new-hampshire-gop-voters-poll.html

Note: this is a real article with real people and not an Onion spoof.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #113 on: February 01, 2016, 04:36:11 PM »

Iowa - 0 days to go

It seems that everything depends on the turnout.

The 'non-establishment' candidates, Trump and Sanders, have attracted huge crowds to their rallies and have led most of the polls. The big question is whether their supporters turn out to vote.

Sanders' support, in particular, has been very strong amongst those most unreliable voters, young people. Another 'non-establishment' candidate, Ron Paul, was also very popular with young people in previous elections, but they didn't show up to vote. So, it is quite possible that the result won't reflect the polls. Both Sanders and Trump need record turnouts to win. Cruz and Clinton's supporters are more reliable. Cruz has put in a very strong ground campaign, shipping in 800 out-of-State campaign workers, and has personally visited all of Iowa's 99 counties. Trump has done little of that, mainly relying on his star persona for attracting support. The critical turnout level for Republicans is 130-135,000. Below that, Cruz wins; above it, Trump wins. 2012 turnout was a record 122,000, which will certainly be beaten, but by how much?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/01/ted-cruzs-magic-number-in-iowa-explained/

Rubio has put in a strong late surge, which should give him a solid third place at a minimum. But Iowa produced shock Republican winners the last two times, Huckabee in 2008 and Santorum in 2012, so who really knows?

« Last Edit: February 01, 2016, 04:40:43 PM by MintTrav » Logged
MintTrav
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« Reply #114 on: February 01, 2016, 10:04:47 PM »

Sanders' final advertisement before Iowa has been a big hit.

Like much of the Sanders campaign, it is very different from the usual campaign ads.

In truth, it is stereotypical American schmaltz with no substance, which I would have thought Sanders was better than.

Anyway, despite (or because of) that, it has been hugely popular.

« Last Edit: February 01, 2016, 10:08:25 PM by MintTrav » Logged
dakky
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« Reply #115 on: February 02, 2016, 02:34:25 AM »

Last 10 Iowa Republican polls via pollsterpolls.

Latest odds: 1/2 Trump 2/1 Cruz 8/1 Rubio



I don't understand this. On betfair Rubio has been consistently in 2nd place a point or two behind trump and Cruz third. Currently BF odds are evens trump, 2/1 rubio 10s cruzm yet in the media and polls etc they are always saying Cruz is his main competitor?

If you can actually get 8/1 then lump on and lay it on BF Cheesy
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TightEnd
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« Reply #116 on: February 02, 2016, 09:25:56 AM »

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AndrewT
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« Reply #117 on: February 02, 2016, 10:55:58 AM »

The TV and website coverage is all about Cruz and Trump though, as Ladbrokes point out in that PR release the significant result is that Rubio came somewhere and all the others came nowhere.
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aaron1867
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« Reply #118 on: February 02, 2016, 11:11:15 AM »

What is the point of the latest results? I do not understand the elections in the USA any one bit & the media do not help either. Sky News completely messed up this morning on their website saying Cruz had ousted Trump, but yet, in reality Trump can still be the candidate according to them on the TV channel.

The election is madness.

I remember some bloke from America when talking about our election, that he wishes their election was similar, rather than dragging out for 18 months or so
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PokerBroker
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« Reply #119 on: February 02, 2016, 11:33:28 AM »

It seems to me the GOP Caucus has opted for credibility over panache.  I can't say I am sorry that Trump's bubble is bursting the man is a lunatic. 

Not that Cruz or Rubio would be much better, but marginally more credible. 
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