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Author Topic: The Next President of the United States  (Read 664671 times)
nirvana
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« Reply #135 on: February 07, 2016, 11:42:35 AM »

Oh man, Rubio. Pretty Vacant
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sola virtus nobilitat
MintTrav
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« Reply #136 on: February 08, 2016, 08:42:10 PM »

There's a cheque enclosed, but it's not for you. Cruz campaign plays loose with the truth again. Something also makes me doubt that the donors mentioned are about to pull the plug on funding.

If you want to make a contribution, contact details are below.

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rfgqqabc
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« Reply #137 on: February 08, 2016, 10:23:43 PM »

So former Senator Rick Santorum dropped out and endorsed Rubio.

What do you list as Marco Rubio's top accomplishment in the Senate that made you endorse him?

Well, er, um.....

Just one? List one accomplishment that Marco Rubio has achieved in four years at the United States Senate.

Yeah, well, that is, okay he didn't accomplish anything, but it wasn't his fault...........



Seems like a very manipulative question which doesn't have an answer because of the situation the Senate was in. Interestingly Trump's accomplishment was starting a business, something that seems especially important for the President of the USA to have done. Mr. Sanatorium stated he thought the Senate had been incredibly ineffective during the period Rubio was a Senator so it strikes me as a bit silly to keep asking what he did during this period. Sanatorium stated he felt like Obama achieved very little during the same period. The newscasters comments about being able to name Sanatorium's achievements are completely null and void as they weren't in the same period as Rubio was a senator. Am I completely off base with the last comment? My knowledge of the USA political system isn't the best? Rubio spent 3/4 of his time in the minority and 1/4 campaigning? It feels like it would have been hard for him t be a particularly effective memeber of the Senate during this time.

The clip strikes me as everything I hate about politics. I did watch the extended version to see if any of Sanatoriums accomplishments were listed, but apparently there were too many to name Sad
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MintTrav
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« Reply #138 on: February 09, 2016, 03:59:43 AM »

So former Senator Rick Santorum dropped out and endorsed Rubio.

What do you list as Marco Rubio's top accomplishment in the Senate that made you endorse him?

Well, er, um.....

Just one? List one accomplishment that Marco Rubio has achieved in four years at the United States Senate.

Yeah, well, that is, okay he didn't accomplish anything, but it wasn't his fault...........



Seems like a very manipulative question which doesn't have an answer because of the situation the Senate was in. Interestingly Trump's accomplishment was starting a business, something that seems especially important for the President of the USA to have done. Mr. Sanatorium stated he thought the Senate had been incredibly ineffective during the period Rubio was a Senator so it strikes me as a bit silly to keep asking what he did during this period. Sanatorium stated he felt like Obama achieved very little during the same period. The newscasters comments about being able to name Sanatorium's achievements are completely null and void as they weren't in the same period as Rubio was a senator. Am I completely off base with the last comment? My knowledge of the USA political system isn't the best? Rubio spent 3/4 of his time in the minority and 1/4 campaigning? It feels like it would have been hard for him t be a particularly effective memeber of the Senate during this time.

The clip strikes me as everything I hate about politics. I did watch the extended version to see if any of Sanatoriums accomplishments were listed, but apparently there were too many to name Sad

You are totally right of course. It was just a gotcha, which the US media have gone to town on and I was joining in with the mob.

The claim that Rubio achieved nothing is unfair anyway. His main bragging rights should have been the bill on immigration reform that he co-authored as one of the cross-party 'Gang of Eight'. It seems to have been a pretty good piece of work which, amongst other things, could have provided a (very long) route to citizenship for illegal immigrants, but it failed and attitudes have hardened so much that he is now beaten with it at every opportunity. He also introduced various other Bills, but most of them didn't make it into law, though that is normal. He is Chairman of two Senate committees and a member of about a dozen others, which carry out a lot of important work. It's not just about the Senate though - the items checked for Bush and Trump happened far away from Washington. Rubio achieved plenty when he was in Florida's House of Representatives, was nominated as Speaker just five years after first being elected and seems to have led the party and the House very successfully.

He has been a Senator, though, for five years, which is two years longer than Cruz, who has made a huge impact in the time he has been there. Rubio has combined his Senate career with being a professor at a Florida university, spending two days a week teaching, so it could be argued that the time spent on that might have led to greater Senate results.

It's true that Santorum had left the Senate before Rubio arrived, so there can't be a direct comparison.
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TightEnd
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« Reply #139 on: February 09, 2016, 11:26:00 AM »

stretching the word virtual....

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MintTrav
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« Reply #140 on: February 09, 2016, 11:15:20 PM »

This is it. The moment the mainstream has been waiting for. Iowa is largely conservative, religious and white. New Hampshire, on the other hand, is liberal, secular and white. Both elect candidates who reflect the population. As mentioned before, no Republican has ever won both States, though it has happened on the Democrat side.

Unless they punch someone, Trump and Sanders should win easily today. Even then, they'd most likely still win. Unless something extraordinary happens, the Democrat election can safely be ignored - it's not as fun as the Republican and none of it really matters until Super Tuesday.

This is the time when one of the mainstream Republicans is supposed to be revealed as the anointed one who will then come through and save the party. The field was Governor-heavy not long ago (the so-called 'deep bench' of Governors), almost all of whom were regarded as a safe pair of hands and the party expected that one or two of them would be coming good by now. Unfortunately, none of them have and they have been dropping out faster than you can keep count, with only three 'safe pairs of hands' remaining - Bush, Christie and Kasich. One of their problems is that there isn't that much between them in the polls, so no-one has a reason to drop out and Rubio's dodgy debate performance could improve the vote of any or all of them. Bush has by far the most cash, so he may be able to outlast the others and get to a three or four-way contest, when the moderate support would all come to him. He isn't looking very leader-like these days, though. Christie is off the pace in the polls, so going for broke and duffing up Rubio was a good strategy. He has been targeting Rubio for ages and there is genuine personal animosity between them going back quite a way (made worse by Rubio nicking some large donors Christie had been grooming for years), but he landed harder than ever before in the debate.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Kasich coming through strongly tonight. Who? He's the one on the end who you don't recognise in the debate line-ups. This is his cup final. He skipped Iowa entirely to give everything here and was the only candidate in the State for part of last week. He has made lots of good points in the debates and avoided all the nasty stuff. It could be that no-one noticed what he said and they don't care anyway cos they're not worried about him. He is still there, though, when a lot of others aren't, despite having done nothing memorable. It could be his time, not to win, but to get a high finish as the leading moderate.

There is little to choose in the polls between Cruz, Rubio, Bush and Kasich. Cruz said a week ago that fourth would be a good result for him in NH, so he may do better than that. Rubio should have nailed second, but is looking weak. Fiorina and Carson are getting nothing in this one.
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Longines
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« Reply #141 on: February 10, 2016, 01:11:38 AM »

Really appreciate everyones posts on this thread, especially MinTrav - keep them coming please.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #142 on: February 10, 2016, 04:00:39 AM »

Watch out for any of the main candidates slipping below 10% of the vote. As well as positioning for the future States, the candidates want to collect delegates. States have different rules and NH is one of those that distributes delegates proportionately. However, candidates need to achieve 10% of the vote or they get none. The first-placed candidate's haul is disproportionate as they get all the left-over delegates. Cruz, Rubio, Kasich and Bush are all hovering around 10-15% and they will be desperate to keep their heads above the 10% line. So say it turns out something like Trump 35%, Kasich 16%, Bush 12%, Cruz 12%, Rubio 10%, Christie 8% and the other two plus ex-candidates still on the ballot sharing 8% between them. Kasich, Bush, Cruz and Rubio would get their proportionate share of the delegates, but Trump would get 50% and the rest would get none. If Rubio slipped to 9%, he would get no delegates either and Trump would be up to 60%.
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« Reply #143 on: February 10, 2016, 11:03:18 AM »

the anit-trump vote is badly split in the republican race, and is hading trump delegates

what is it that keeps the also rans in the race? vanity? arrogance? thinking they can still win? hoping for future influence?

or is it that they stay in until donors give up?
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AndrewT
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« Reply #144 on: February 10, 2016, 11:58:32 AM »

the anit-trump vote is badly split in the republican race, and is hading trump delegates

what is it that keeps the also rans in the race? vanity? arrogance? thinking they can still win? hoping for future influence?

or is it that they stay in until donors give up?

Usually, by now, the field has thinned out already.

This year though, I think people were just waiting for Trumpmania to burst, and so there would be votes coming their way at some point. That now looks as though it's not going to happen.

Carly Fiorina will almost certainly drop out soon, and I think even someone as deluded as Ben Carson might get the message from 2% in New Hampshire.

Ted Cruz is going nowhere, ever, as he's doing God's work.

The others all have reason to stay in - Kasich just got a good 2nd in NH, Rubio still sees himself as the establishment candidate, and Bush has more money than the others so even if he drops back in the polls, he can use the strategy of spending like crazy and force the others to burn through their cashpiles.

And I forgot about Christie - even though everyone said he won the last debate in NH, he still came 6th and he doesn't seem crazy, so he might get the message and knock it on the head.
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« Reply #145 on: February 10, 2016, 11:58:49 AM »

The GOP nomination race is effectively now down to just 5



http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/02/10/the-gop-nomination-race-is-effectively-now-down-to-just-5/
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« Reply #146 on: February 10, 2016, 12:12:15 PM »

who is the value John?

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MintTrav
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« Reply #147 on: February 10, 2016, 01:00:40 PM »

Why don't no-hopers drop out? All the reasons you said, plus everything Andrew said. Quite often they can still win, even though it looks like a lost cause at certain times. Bush Snr, Clinton, Dubya and Obama were all dead & buried at some point, but came back to win the nomination. But yeah, it seems a forlorn hope that Fiorina, Carson, Christie or Kasich can go all the way.

Take Kasich for example. On paper, he looks like the perfect candidate. Famous as a student for writing to Nixon with his views on the country and somehow bagging a meeting with the Pres, he was elected to Congress at a young age and is the only runner with both Washington and Governor experience, having put in 18 years in the House of Reps, where he was a leading member and co-operated cross-party with Pres Clinton on several issues. He then spent seven years as MD of Ohio's branch of Lehman Bros, while simultaneously hosting his on show on Fox, before becoming Governor of Ohio, where he is now in his second term. And he comes across as a nice guy, still hugely popular in his State, who has stayed out of the mud-slinging. However, he has one big problem - the guy has no money. I mean, he is loaded compared with most of us, but not when it comes to funding a Presidential campaign. He bet everything on NH and held over a hundred Town Halls. Now there is little cash left so, instead of building on his success, he is skipping the next few States, including all of Super Tuesday, and focusing on another all-out assault on Michigan. In one way it makes no sense, as he will never get enough delegates to win. All I can think is that he is trying to build his influence. Also, there is a VP slot going and, realistically, he has a better shot at that than the main job. You would never make Cruz, Trump or Carson your Veep, but Kasich would be perfect.

Similarly, Carson also seems to be trying to cherry-pick States where he can pick up delegates. He didn't bother with NH, as he knew it wasn't his kind of place and was already in South Carolina yesterday. He made an odd statement about being happy to be Trump's VP, which sounded like he was giving up, but apparently he isn't.

Another reason some of them stay in is that it usually takes a couple of attempts to win your party's nomination, so they want to maximise their results and their name recognition with a view to 2020. Nowadays even candidates in their sixties can realistically hope for another shot.
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« Reply #148 on: February 10, 2016, 01:12:12 PM »

thank you

i see some chatter that people are backing Bush for GOP at fancy prices

very well funded, Cruz a god botherer, Rubio poor performance recently, eventually the field has to unite behind a non-trump candidate

is that something realistic?
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« Reply #149 on: February 10, 2016, 01:36:18 PM »

Bush was 20/1 for the nomination a week ago - now into 5/1, which would have seemed crazy just after Pleaseclapgate.

He's benefitting from Rubio's bandwagon shedding wheels at an alarming rate and being seen as a safe pair of hands.

Kasich is favourite for the VP slot as being Governer of Ohio can help deliver the swingiest of swingy states.
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