The Next President of the United States

[DaveShoelace]

Ugh. This election goes from bad to worse.

Hillary has reportedly invited Mark Cuban to sit in the front row at the debate. Cuban is a billionaire who owns an NBA team and other stuff. He has been one of the most visible critics of Trump, frequently described as trolling Trump. Clinton's team said they were putting him in because he has been so successful at highlighting Trump's negatives. Seems a crappy move, but there you go.

Trump's response? Unbelievable. He has dug up Gennifer Flowers and invited her to sit in the front row. If you don't remember her, gee that's sweet, you rugrat. Long before Monica Lewinsky was heard of, Gennifer Flowers was Bill Clinton's paramour. It all came to light during Bill's first Presidential campaign and nearly derailed it until Bill and Hillary undertook a joint interview of denial that succeeded in limiting the damage. Gennifer claimed she had had a 12-year affair with Bill, which he denied, though he did admit a few years later that they had done it, but just once.

Trump suggested the idea, apparently as an empty threat, but Gennifer then tweeted that she is up for it. Hopefully, Trump didn't really mean it. How low can you go?


Donald J. Trump Verified account @realDonaldTrump   
If dopey Mark Cuban of failed Benefactor fame wants to sit in the front row, perhaps I will put Gennifer Flowers right alongside of him!
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/779729180334387200

Gennifer Flowers ‏@gennflowers
Hi Donald. You know I'm in your corner and will definitely be at the debate!
https://twitter.com/gennflowers

Sometimes I feel like I don't want to read anything more about this year's awful election. What has happened to the powerful American system that it has been brought to this?

Could have been worse he could have invited Juanita Broaddrick.

[MintTrav]

It's like WWE, lol.

What time is the first debate, MintTrav?

It's in the wee hours of Monday night/Tuesday morning, it's on all the major news channels, I've sky plussed it.

Yep. The actual face-off is 2.00-3.30am, with no breaks  (how unAmerican!), plus as much pre-match build-up and post-match analysis as you can handle. There has been speculation in right-wing circles that Clinton may struggle to last 90 minutes standing with no bathroom or rest breaks, which may just be wishful thinking, though remember she was late back on stage from a break in one of the Primary debates.

It is known that her side asked for step-stools, supposedly so that the large height-difference won't be so apparent. The organisers haven't allowed the stools, but have said they will do something with the stage to make the height thing less obvious. Not really what the Dems wanted, as the stools were probably to allow her to rest a bit. Seems a bit unnecessary, cruel even, to turn it into a physical endurance contest.

[MintTrav]

Could have been worse he could have invited Juanita Broaddrick.

Fill the front row with them - Paula Jones, Monica, plus there are at least four others who have claimed affairs or one-offs with Bill.

I can't see her being there. I don't think Trump meant it, and she surprised him with her publicity-seeking. I would be surprised if Cuban is there either. If the candidates don't stop the nonsense, the organisers may well block attendees who are there for disruptive reasons.

[MintTrav]

Want to make sure you lose a debate? There are plenty of ways you can guarantee that it won't matter what you or your opponent say on the issues. Here are a few:

Say something that is patently untrue:


Enter your opponents space and look like a bully:




Say you have seen a UFO:


Say "Who am I? Why am I here?":


Check your watch, as if you have somewhere more important to get to.
(This clip is a bit longer - the watch-check is right at the start.):


Turn off your hearing aid during the debate:

[TightEnd]

Latest WashPo/ABC poll: Likely voters: 46% Clinton, 44% Trump. Registered voters, Clinton/Trump are tied 41%

[Rexas]

How much stock is it worth putting in these polls, how do they get the information, and do you think they're ever... idk, engineered to make it look closer than it is?

[MintTrav]

How much stock is it worth putting in these polls, how do they get the information, and do you think they're ever... idk, engineered to make it look closer than it is?

One poll doesn't mean much on its own. In the last week there have been several polls, generally showing Clinton ahead, but varying between Trump ahead by four points and Clinton ahead by seven. RealClearPolitics keeps an average of recent polls, which gives a better idea than individual polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

I think most polls are done by phone, and there is a degree of self-selection and inherent bias in the people likely to take part. Polls that are representative of the population are not good indicators of the result, as some age-groups/races/income-brackets/education-levels are more likely to show up on election day. I think most of the major polls weight their findings to allow for this, but I'm not up to speed on which ones do or to what extent they weight different groups. I would bet there are differences in how they do it, though.

I don't think they are fixed. Romney claimed the polls were wrong the last time, but they were spot on. Bloomberg did a piece on the accuracy of polls in the State Primaries, and most of the well-known organisations were more than 90% accurate. It makes the point that if you use the averaging sites like FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, you don't really need to look anywhere else.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-05-03/the-2016-guide-to-political-predictions-which-matter-and-who-was-most-underestimated.

They have definitely improved since the 1948 election, when the polls and early results all showed Dewey streets ahead of Truman, and publishing deadlines led to this fiasco:

(That's Truman in the photo.)

As we have said before, though, the national percentage is almost irrelevant. We need to examine the individual States.

[MintTrav]

Kellyanne Conway has confirmed that Gennifer's not coming.



You can imagine the conversations at Trump Headquarters.
- I need to talk with you.
- Oh God, what's he done now?
- He's tweeted that he's going to invite Gennifer Flowers to the debate.
- What? I thought one of us was going to stay with him?
- Sorry, I just went to the bathroom for a minute and he had done it by the time I got back.
- Can you clean it up?
- Yeah, I'll go on CNN in the morning and tell them it's a false alarm - that he just escaped off the leash for a while.
- Put the blame on Clinton.
- Of course.

They seem to be doing a pretty good job of managing him. And Kellyanne does well when she goes on TV. I feel a bit sorry for them - they deserve a better candidate.

[MintTrav]

A sign of the times.

Click to see full-size image.

[The Camel]

Want to make sure you lose a debate? There are plenty of ways you can guarantee that it won't matter what you or your opponent say on the issues. Here are a few:

Say something that is patently untrue:


Enter your opponents space and look like a bully:




Say you have seen a UFO:


Say "Who am I? Why am I here?":


Check your watch, as if you have somewhere more important to get to.
(This clip is a bit longer - the watch-check is right at the start.):


Turn off your hearing aid during the debate:

Times have changed.

Trump has said numerous things which are "patently untrue" and it hasn't harmed him much, if at all.

[Marky147]

A sign of the times.

Click to see full-size image.

Haha, madness!

[MintTrav]

It's the big day.

Before it kicks off, here is the master in action - Bill Clinton dealing with the same question that Bush struggled with above, and the contrast is unmissable. Bush said he was exposed to the economic problems because he wanted to know his grandchildren would be able to afford an education, even though everyone knew he had made millions in the oil industry, and then waffled without really answering the question or connecting with the questioner. Clinton shows how it should be done, and you can almost feel her falling in love with him.

[TightEnd]

Poll: Trump Leads Clinton Among Non-College-Educated White Men by a Whopping 59 Points http://bit.ly/2d1gTHa

[Rexas]

It's the big day.

Before it kicks off, here is the master in action - Bill Clinton dealing with the same question that Bush struggled with above, and the contrast is unmissable. Bush said he was exposed to the economic problems because he wanted to know his grandchildren would be able to afford an education, even though everyone knew he had made millions in the oil industry, and then waffled without really answering the question or connecting with the questioner. Clinton shows how it should be done, and you can almost feel her falling in love with him.

You can basically see the other guy give up in the background, excellent stuff

[Pinchop73]

Looking forward to tonight