The Next President of the United States

[MintTrav]

For tonight's debate, on the one hand Trump has nothing to lose so can afford to shake things up. On the other, attacking the opposition hasn't worked out too well, and he does better when he sticks to the issues.

Clinton just needs to pass through without major disaster and mark time til the election.


Trump's guests for tonight's debate:

- The mother of one of the four Americans killed in the US Embassy in Benghazi, who blames Hillary Clinton for his death and spoke at the Republican conference.

- Malik Obama. Sounds familiar? Barack's brother is a Trump supporter.

[MintTrav]

#VoteNobody

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

[DaveShoelace]

[Woodsey]

Paddy Power are paying out on Clinton.

Do they ever get it wrong when they do this?

[hector62]

Paddy Power are paying out on Clinton.

Do they ever get it wrong when they do this?
[/quot

Yes. Betfred paid out on Man Utd one year when they were caught by Arsenal, or maybe the other way round.

[DaveShoelace]

Paddy Power are paying out on Clinton.

Do they ever get it wrong when they do this?

Yep, in fact they are probably well aware it could go tits up for them and paddypower are the kings of spinning this into free publicity. There'll be a bunch of mainstream news items this week about how paddypower are paying early, and if Trump wins there will be a few which mention paddypower wrongly paying early.

[MintTrav]

Click to see full-size image.

They both arrived at McCarron early today for the Vegas showdown. Both planes are leased, though Clinton's is from a third party and Trump's is rented from a Trump company, as are many of the services purchased by the campaign. He was already using the plane before he started running for office, but since this all started he has been invoicing the costs to the campaign. Trump gave up on self-funding the campaign and started taking large donations around May. Since then, campaign costs have exploded.

Up til May, $3.7m had been charged for the plane, but the cost seems to have increased, as the charge just for the month of July was $495k.

That increase is nothing compared with the uplift in the charge for office accommodation and staff at Trump Tower, which increased to almost five times the previous amount. Until May (ie when Trump was funding the campaign), the charge for office space was $35k / month. Filings show that the rent charged grew to $73k in May, $111k in June and $170k in July, though staff numbers didn't increase. There have also been a few hundred thousand dollars for use of Trump hotels and golf courses, which was a low amount previously.

Trump suggested in the past that he might be the only person to run for President and make a profit from it. He could be right. It is hard to see that the increased charges are anything other than opportunism - ie Trump is ripping off his own donors.

[aaron1867]

Not sure if I'm the only one who think this, but do people actually think Trump would carry out these silly things he has said? He seems tonne saying things that people want to hear. I actually despise Hilary, and I'm really not bothered if Trump actually be one president. Dare I say it.

[Marky147]

Paddy Power are paying out on Clinton.

Do they ever get it wrong when they do this?

Yep, in fact they are probably well aware it could go tits up for them and paddypower are the kings of spinning this into free publicity. There'll be a bunch of mainstream news items this week about how paddypower are paying early, and if Trump wins there will be a few which mention paddypower wrongly paying early.

Lot of publicity, for a few hundred quid in bets.

[MintTrav]

Donald Trump told us earlier in the year that he was going to redraw the electoral map, meaning that he would be competitive in States that have been assumed Democrat until now - New York, Cali, etc. He named seven that he would revive for Republicans, presumably because he is a New Yorker with a populist attraction, and did well in the Primaries.

Megyn Kelly ran through them last night, along with how far Hillary is ahead in them, and it showed how big a miss he has had: NY 20%, N Jer 12%, Cali 20%, Oregon 19%, Illinois 15%, Wash St 14%, Mich 10%.

He wouldn't have been expected to win those if he hadn't said he would, but he has also been smashed in the marginal Dem States he needed to take.

Instead the battles are in the swing Rep States, and he is losing most of those. Not only that, but strong Rep States are looking shaky. Arizona now seems more likely to fall to Hillary than to be held. Georgia, Utah and even Texas should be strong, but are looking wobbly.

[MintTrav]

A bunch of polls came out today. Most noticeable were:

Arizona:
43% Clinton
38% Trump

And get this:

Utah
31% McMullin
27% Trump
24% Clinton

There could be a knock-on effect from McMullin's success in Utah. He is not even included in many polls in other States, but he could do well in States with a lot of Mormons, eg Idaho, Arizona, Nevada, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado. Forget Johnson - McMullin may be the home for their vote that anti-Trump conservatives are looking for. 

http://www.forbes.com/sites/aviksaroy/2016/10/18/the-conservative-alternative-to-donald-trump-isnt-gary-johnson-its-evan-mcmullin/#32b02b2b7b23

If there is a rush to McMullin, the votes will come from Trump and could be the balance that loses him some States, making a landslide that much more likely.

[Rexas]

Starts at 2 tonight right?

[Marky147]

Starts at 2 tonight right?

Yeah, 2am mate.

I'm watching on Fox again.

[Marky147]

The moderator was better this time, lol.

[MintTrav]

This felt much better, dealing more with issues than personal attacks and not dominated by their suitability to be President. It was more like a normal political debate - credit to Chris Wallace for framing it like that.

She didn't answer the pay-for-play question, stretching out a long waffle about the Clinton Foundation and Haiti. Should have addressed the question, or Wallace should have brought her back to it.

Trump finally doing some standard prep and mock debates showed, with a better and more dignified performance, much calmer and more rational, though he lost credit by shouting down both his opponent and the moderator, and slipped up by making some unnecessary asides that looked bad.

Clinton was on top throughout imo, so a clear win on points for her. Trump held his own in the earlier parts, but did gradually deteriorate, while she didn't.

One major error by Trump, saying he might not accept the result, which will be the headline.