The Next President of the United States

[MintTrav]

He's been doing it for quite a while and has plenty of stuff on YouTube.

[MintTrav]

Joni Ernst: Hog-Castrating Senator Goes After a Dog

Back in 2014, Joni Ernst was running for the Senate and it wasn't going well. Most people in Iowa didn't know who she was. She had spent over twenty years in the Army Reserve and National Guard (including as Commanding Officer of bases in Iraq and the US) and never had any other job apart from the military and being a State politician. She was trying to step up to the national level but her profile was low, fundraising was terrible and she was behind in the polls for the Republican Primary.

Then she released an ad that changed everything. It was made on a pittance ($8,000) but, because of its impact, is regarded by many as one of the best political ads ever, giving her not just a State-wide profile, but a national one, with late-night hosts talking about it. Suddenly everyone knew about her. She won the Primary and smashed the General Election, becoming the Senate's first female combat veteran.

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[In US politics, 'pork' means wasteful spending.]



Joni was even given a present by Lindsey Graham when she joined the Senate:

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Joni was seen as having a bright future and delivered the official Republican response to the State of the Union just two weeks after joining the Senate in January 2015. She was seen by many journalists and politicians as a contender for Vice President in 2016, despite her very right-wing views on just about everything. Trump met with her, but obviously decided to go elsewhere, though she got a speaking slot at the Republican Convention.

Now she is up for re-election and she's in trouble again, running neck-and-neck with a strong Democrat challenger, Theresa Greenfield. There were several polls showing each of them just 1-2% ahead. But Joni made a mistake last month by throwing shade at Greenfield's dog, Ringo.

https://twitter.com/chevytothe_levy/status/1289228636797755392

She didn't actually say anything bad about the dog, but she gave crazed dog-owners all over Iowa an opportunity to pile in and pretend she did, largely on two Twitter hashtags, https://twitter.com/hashtag/IStandWithRingo and https://twitter.com/hashtag/RingoGate.

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As if that unforced error wasn't enough, Joni was again given an opportunity to shine with a slot at this year's Republican Convention, but made herself a laughing stock by saying that Biden wants to ban animal agriculture.



It's still too close to call in Iowa, but that’s largely because of the general downturn in Republican prospects. Though Greenfield has pulled ahead lately, it’s likely that Joni will come through in the end, but her suicidal interventions don’t help.

[MintTrav]

No concerns about mass virus spreading at Biden Labor Day event in Pennsylvania.

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[MintTrav]

Contrasting strategies from the campaigns this week:

Trump Rallies:
Tues - Salem, North Carolina
Thurs - Freeland, Michigan
Sat - Reno, Nevada
Sun - Las Vegas, Nevada

Biden Rallies:
Er....none this week, thanks for asking.

[TightEnd]

Bob Woodward tapes reveal Trump knew COVID was highly contagious in February and said 'I like playing it down' https://trib.al/cMrn39a

damaging stuff

[bookiebasher]

Bob Woodward tapes reveal Trump knew COVID was highly contagious in February and said 'I like playing it down' https://trib.al/cMrn39a

damaging stuff

I always knew he was stupid but this is a new low allowing himself to be taped by one of the top investigative political
reporters.

I keep laying him on Betfair , hope I’m not stupider than him 

[bookiebasher]

https://twitter.com/glamelegance/status/1303757222506266629?s=20

And to think she said in her first press conference that she would never lie.

[Karabiner]

Bob Woodward tapes reveal Trump knew COVID was highly contagious in February and said 'I like playing it down' https://trib.al/cMrn39a

damaging stuff

I always knew he was stupid but this is a new low allowing himself to be taped by one of the top investigative political
reporters.

I keep laying him on Betfair , hope I’m not stupider than him 

I think it's the stupidity/blind faith of the electorate that you need to worry about.

Each of the many revelations which would end most political careers seem to have little effect on the donald.

[bookiebasher]

I know he has his hard core supporters who will die with him but just cannot see where he could pick up more votes than last time
when he won by the thinnest of margins over a woman ( misogyny still rife in many parts ) who was very unpopular plus people
thought it was a done deal and didn’t bother to vote.

Surely 4 years of Trump should see a big uptick in voter turnout which will help Biden.

If he gets in again send the boys round to lock me up in the Asylum. It will do my head in .

[MintTrav]

I know he has his hard core supporters who will die with him but just cannot see where he could pick up more votes than last time
when he won by the thinnest of margins over a woman ( misogyny still rife in many parts ) who was very unpopular plus people
thought it was a done deal and didn’t bother to vote.

Surely 4 years of Trump should see a big uptick in voter turnout which will help Biden.

If he gets in again send the boys round to lock me up in the Asylum. It will do my head in .

He could win. Safe States give 210 votes to Biden and 185 to Trump, assuming Trump holds Iowa, Georgia, Texas and four in Nebraska and Biden holds three in Maine (Nebraska and Maine are the only two that have split votes). Arizona seems to be getting away from the Republicans, which would take Biden up to 221.

Trump is favourite in North Carolina and Ohio, so giving him those and one in Maine gets him to 219. It's difficult for him to win without Florida, which could go either way. Hispanics are one of the few groups where he has been doing well and Florida Hispanics are more right-wing than those in the rest of the country. That would get him to 248, needing another 22 to reach 270.

College votes of the remaining States are Pennsylvania 20, Michigan 16, Virginia 13, Minnesota 10 and Wisconsin 10. Winning any two (except the last two) would do it for Donald. That seems a tall order right now as, though he did well in the Rust Belt last time, Biden seems to be ahead across the board here. Virginia is out of sight, but the gap is 4-7% in the others, so it's not impossible.

If he doesn't win Florida, he could only really get home by recovering in Arizona and taking Pennsylvania and two out of Michigan/Minnesota/Wisconsin, which is incredibly unlikely.

It could all come down to Florida again.

[MintTrav]

While I say that Trump could win, it’s more likely that he won’t. And the opposite outcome, of a Biden sweep through the contested States, is becoming more of a possibility. He is ahead in all of them, and could bring in the resounding win that they want in order to claim that they have a clear mandate to put through their policies.

Virtually everywhere seems to have ticked up slightly for Joe this week, on already good polls, and Trump’s Bernstein interview seems to be the reason. Admitting that he downplayed the virus hasn’t been well received.

Trump was able to grab most of the undecided voters at the end in 2016, but that is going to be next to impossible this time, as there just aren’t anywhere near as many of them. Biden’s advantage is similar to Hillary’s in some States, but both candidates are several points higher than 2016. Take Wisconsin. On Election Day, Hillary was up by 6½ points, 46½% to 40%. Biden is currently at 50½% to Trump’s 43½%. So there are 6% undecided, compared with 13% last time. Also, Joe is currently over the line, so irrespective of how well Trump does with undecideds, he also has to dislodge some Biden believers or it’s just not possible to win. The percentages are very similar in Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. Those are enough for Biden to win, even if he loses Florida and Arizona (and he’s probably not going to lose AZ).

It could even be better than that for Joe. The States above have largely moved from 3-4% advantages in late August to 5-6% now. He is up in Florida and not down by much in North Carolina. A big win isn’t out of the question.

[RED-DOG]

Go Joe!

[MintTrav]

Woodward interview. Quite amused that I put Bernstein.

[MintTrav]

Democrats' fragile confidence in 2018. Applies even more now.

[Marky147]

Com skit