The Next President of the United States

[Marky147]

Very naughty boys...

[MintTrav]

Voter suppression is rampant in this election. It has long been an issue in US elections but a lot of people were shocked at how blatantly it occurred in the Georgia Governor election in 2018, when Brian Kemp stole the election from Stacey Abrams. There have been steps taken to reduce it over the years, and more since 2018, but the GOP is ingenious at coming up with new methods of excluding voters.

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It’s hard to conceive of people having meetings where they discuss how they can delegitimise proper votes, but that must be what they do. Both sides have taken to the courts in Swing States to try to have each others's actions annulled. Republicans are trying to get certain votes disqualified, and Democrats to have restrictions cancelled.

Take Texas. Drop boxes have been a fantastic way of reducing the third-world lines of voters waiting for hours, so the Governor of Texas decreed that there can only be one drop-box per County. This mainly affects Harris County, which can take an hour to drive across and has one drop-box for a population of 4.7m (half of them living in the left-leaning city of Houston). There is no reason for this rule, other than to make it harder to vote. In response, Harris County introduced drive-through voting at 10 locations, so the GOP took a case to the State Supreme Court claiming that the County didn't have the authority to introduce new methods of voting. The case was thrown out today, and was appealed immediately to the Federal Court of Appeal.

In Florida, a law was brought in to prevent ex-prisoners from voting unless they had paid all fines and penalties, while it was made extremely difficult to find out how much you owed. Michael Bloomberg spent a few million paying off fines, which enabled a few thousand ex-cons to vote.

[DaveShoelace]

Rather than stop up for it I think I might go to bed early and set my alarm for maybe 3AM or something.

What is the ideal time for a Brit to wake up for this shit in the wee hours?

[bookiebasher]

Rather than stop up for it I think I might go to bed early and set my alarm for maybe 3AM or something.

What is the ideal time for a Brit to wake up for this shit in the wee hours?

Depends who is winning.

If the Donald is winning I suggest wake up 2024.

Set my stall out for one of TK’s afternoon naps and watch all through the night .

Need to see Trumps meltdown and his lawyers going batshit crazy with law suits everywhere .

[MintTrav]

Democrats have never been more scared. Though polls have narrowed a bit almost everywhere, their man is still comfortably ahead by around 5-6% in most Swing States, but they are jumpy as hell that Trump's voters are under-represented, for a number of reasons. One Iowa poll in particular gave them the yips on Saturday by reporting a seven point lead for Trump, when previous ones have shown the State neck-and-neck. This poll is so significant because exactly the same thing happened with this very poll in 2016, and it was the first indication that the situation wasn't as everyone thought. All the other polls have shown no major change. The major exception is Trafalgar, which has consistently predicted a Trump win, as has the Sunday Express.

Although there are many possible outcomes, it's quite simple really. Biden seems to have safely retaken Wisconsin and Michigan. If he holds all of Hillary's States, he just needs to win one out of Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia or Pennsylvania, and he's ahead in all of them. Florida or Ohio would also do the job, but Florida is even and he's behind in Ohio. The only Hillary States that might be threatened are Minnesota and Nevada, especially Nevada, where there are a lot of working-class Hispanics. This demographic has moved to Trump in significant numbers since 2016, and they are clustered in a few States, including Florida and Nevada. If Trump wins, it will probably be thanks to them (specifically the Cuban and Venezuelan elements).

When will we know which way it's going? The first significant results will probably be from some parts of Ohio, which should give an idea of which way the wind is blowing. Georgia, North Carolina and Florida will close around 7-8pm, and will start producing results quite quickly. Wisconsin and Michigan will be late, as they start counting later. If Trump holds AZ, NC, GA, FL and OH, it'll come down to Pennsylvania, which will take for ever. State laws prohibit pre-processing of mail-ins (opening and smoothing), so it could take days to know which way it's going.

[RED-DOG]

I've seen several High-profile British news reporters broadcasting from outside the Whitehouse.

How do quarantine rules work for them, will they have to self-isolate when they return to the UK on Wednesday?

[Longy]

I am going to stay up all night. If Biden wins in a landslide that could become apparent as early as all Florida polls close (1am), as Florida counts quickly and a clear Biden win here means Trump almost has no path to victory.

I am probably going to watch CNN as they are going to be very pro Biden but will have some good coverage, then use various twitter informed accounts and websites. The New Times is doing something called the needle which is going to be live in the key states of Fl, GA and NC which will let you see as the votes are counted which way the race is going. As counts could be all over the place and bias to one side or the other depending if they count mail or in person votes first,

[Marky147]

I've seen several High-profile British news reporters broadcasting from outside the Whitehouse.

How do quarantine rules work for them, will they have to self-isolate when they return to the UK on Wednesday?

Could be wrong, bu I'd imagine some of them won't be coming back this week, given how lively things are likely to be over there for the forseeable.

Those that do will probably have some form of work related exemption, so they can be tested, and not have to do the isolation.

[RED-DOG]

I've seen several High-profile British news reporters broadcasting from outside the Whitehouse.

How do quarantine rules work for them, will they have to self-isolate when they return to the UK on Wednesday?

Could be wrong, bu I'd imagine some of them won't be coming back this week, given how lively things are likely to be over there for the forseeable.

Those that do will probably have some form of work related exemption, so they can be tested, and not have to do the isolation.

Surely there can't be exemptions. Who do they think they are, Dominic Cummings?

[Marky147]

I've seen several High-profile British news reporters broadcasting from outside the Whitehouse.

How do quarantine rules work for them, will they have to self-isolate when they return to the UK on Wednesday?

Could be wrong, bu I'd imagine some of them won't be coming back this week, given how lively things are likely to be over there for the forseeable.

Those that do will probably have some form of work related exemption, so they can be tested, and not have to do the isolation.

Surely there can't be exemptions. Who do they think they are, Dominic Cummings?

No exemption required for him, he just does what he wants, and the honey monster lets him.

[MintTrav]

Lol, Donald has tweeted himself dancing to YMCA, and pinned it.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323534663453913093

[nirvana]

Not that it changes our life that much (unless The Don presses the red button lol), but does anyone actually want trump to win?

Ok I'll rephrase that, there will be people on here who do want trump to win, but is there anyone willing to admit that publicly? 

I don't think that having Trump as President would be as bad as we imagine. A number of his positions are to the left of mainstream Republicans and would be more socially responsible to our eyes. In areas where he didn't have a developed view, he has simply adopted the mainstream GOP position, so would be no better or worse than a traditional Republican President. On his headline policies, he'd get the irrelevant wall, but the more extreme ones would get tied up in Congress and never happen. The main tension would be around his isolationism, both anti-trade protectionism and non-intervention in world affairs, though it's hard to know to what extent either would come to pass.

I'm actually surprised, though, that you're not on the Trump train. I would have thought he was right up your and arbboy's street.

Wanted to see what page this diary was at on election day last time (page 73 or so) and came across this post.

On reflection, MT, would you revise the opinion in the first line :-)

Are you staying up all night, any plans to post any updates through the night ?

[nirvana]

Lol, Donald has tweeted himself dancing to YMCA, and pinned it.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323534663453913093

Haha, that's brill

[Marky147]

Lol, Donald has tweeted himself dancing to YMCA, and pinned it.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1323534663453913093

Amazing

[MintTrav]

First result of the election was a sweep for Biden at Dixville Notch, the first time it's happened since 1960.



Note the vote-splitting, usually a sign of a sophisticated electorate, with most of the votes for Governor going to Republican Chris Sununu (son of John Sununu, NH Governor in the Eighties and GB Snr's Chief of Staff), while Democrats Jeanne Shaheen and Annie Kuster both picked up four out of five in their re-election races for Senate and House.

Biden did a funny about the result: "Based on Trump's notion, I'm going to declare victory right now."

Click to see full-size image.