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Author Topic: The Next President of the United States  (Read 664744 times)
nirvana
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« Reply #4320 on: November 03, 2020, 08:25:21 PM »

Had a bet on electoral college votes with Trump +81

Now just off to research what states = what college votes.

Think I might have reversed the normal path for successful punters of research then bet
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« Reply #4321 on: November 03, 2020, 09:51:18 PM »

Had a bet on electoral college votes with Trump +81

Now just off to research what states = what college votes.

Think I might have reversed the normal path for successful punters of research then bet

Playing around with the electoral college map, Florida is the key state for this bet.
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nirvana
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« Reply #4322 on: November 03, 2020, 10:04:06 PM »

Had a bet on electoral college votes with Trump +81

Now just off to research what states = what college votes.

Think I might have reversed the normal path for successful punters of research then bet

Playing around with the electoral college map, Florida is the key state for this bet.

Florida one of the earlier states where we'll have a good idea, maybe I'll stay up
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Marky147
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« Reply #4323 on: November 04, 2020, 12:13:15 AM »

Had a bet on electoral college votes with Trump +81

Now just off to research what states = what college votes.

Think I might have reversed the normal path for successful punters of research then bet

Channing will have you on the firm for the next election, no doubt Grin
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« Reply #4324 on: November 04, 2020, 12:25:50 AM »

Looking good for Trump in Florida, he has done very well in Miami area
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MintTrav
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« Reply #4325 on: November 04, 2020, 12:27:35 AM »

Not that it changes our life that much (unless The Don presses the red button lol), but does anyone actually want trump to win?

Ok I'll rephrase that, there will be people on here who do want trump to win, but is there anyone willing to admit that publicly? 

I don't think that having Trump as President would be as bad as we imagine. A number of his positions are to the left of mainstream Republicans and would be more socially responsible to our eyes. In areas where he didn't have a developed view, he has simply adopted the mainstream GOP position, so would be no better or worse than a traditional Republican President. On his headline policies, he'd get the irrelevant wall, but the more extreme ones would get tied up in Congress and never happen. The main tension would be around his isolationism, both anti-trade protectionism and non-intervention in world affairs, though it's hard to know to what extent either would come to pass.

I'm actually surprised, though, that you're not on the Trump train. I would have thought he was right up your and arbboy's street.

Wanted to see what page this diary was at on election day last time (page 73 or so) and came across this post.

On reflection, MT, would you revise the opinion in the first line :-)

Are you staying up all night, any plans to post any updates through the night ?

Wow, just summarise the last four years. Leaving 2020 out, I don't think the first three years were as bad as they could have been. The organisation in the White House was chaotic, especially in the first year. There have been so many senior staff comings and goings that it's a wonder anything got done. Most of his closest associates are no longer with him, and an embarrassing number of them are in prison. I remember during the mayhem of the first two years, we used to say "Thank God there hasn't been a crisis - imagine what they'll be like if there is one."

Many of the failures are obvious. He couldn't get much done on healthcare. America's image is in the gutter round the world and the country is more openly divided, with controversial groups more apparent. Already-existing environmental policies have taken a battering, topped by withdrawing from the Climate Agreement. Some Cabinet picks were installed to damage their Departments, which they did, though they would call it removing bureaucracy and red tape. Tillerson, in particular, decimated the State Department and destroyed decades of built-up knowledge.

Foreign Affairs has been horrible. Trump generally messed up everything with Europe, Russia, China, North Korea and anyone else you can think of. He caused mayhem in the Middle East by withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal, combined with a series of questionable decisions on Syria and Afghanistan. On the other hand, he kept the US out of wars and didn't dabble in other countries' affairs too much, as he said he would.

There have been successes, prison reform being the one that comes to mind first, which was mainly thanks to Kushner. They inherited a boom with plummeting unemployment and pretended it was their doing, but at least didn't destroy it. Several of the Cabinet were decent picks who kept things going. They would also point to other achievements, which we would view as negatives, such as Court appointments and tax reform.

Has it been as bad as we imagined? Or about what we thought it would be? I would say that, overall, it's been horrific, both in their intent, and the incompetence with which they've gone about it, but it could have been worse.

Steve Hilton presents a decent defence of Trump's Presidency, emphasising promises kept, in the first 4½ minutes of this (warning - he dissembles about jobs, taxes, energy, North Korea, the Middle East, etc). I wouldn't bother with the rest of it.
 


And yes, I'll be staying up, and I'm sure I won't be able to resist posting thoughts as the news starts rolls in.
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« Reply #4326 on: November 04, 2020, 12:34:28 AM »


And yes, I'll be staying up, and I'm sure I won't be able to resist posting thoughts as the news starts rolls in.

Exactly what I'm staying up for, so I can at least try to keep a track of things.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #4327 on: November 04, 2020, 12:40:37 AM »

Looking good for Trump in Florida, he has done very well in Miami area

I know Democrats were concerned last week at the very low early voting turnout in Miami-Dade, which they didn't really understand. It was specific to there, ie other high-population counties were okay. They were hoping to whip more in, but I'm not sure what happened since - looks like they didn't manage it. If the Dems do badly in Miami, their goose is probably cooked for the State, as they need to do well in those Southern counties, where all the North-East retirees live, to offset the Hispanics in the Northern counties.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #4328 on: November 04, 2020, 12:42:37 AM »

Amazing to see the networks calling races with 1% counted.
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« Reply #4329 on: November 04, 2020, 12:59:19 AM »

States have a wide range of cut-off dates for accepting mail-in votes, from Election Day to 14 days later (if postmarked by today). The US Postal Service was hauled into court to account for delays in the system, and ordered to sweep its facilities by 3pm today to process all ballots. It failed to do so due to high volumes of election and other work and the Judge has ordered USPS to "be prepared to discuss the apparent lack of compliance with the court's order" at noon tomorrow. Lord knows what will happen then. The system shows 296k ballots posted but not delivered.

https://twitter.com/johnkruzel/status/1323744179827126272
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« Reply #4330 on: November 04, 2020, 03:10:00 AM »

Can get 4.5 for Biden on BF at the mo.
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nirvana
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« Reply #4331 on: November 04, 2020, 03:16:36 AM »

Not that it changes our life that much (unless The Don presses the red button lol), but does anyone actually want trump to win?

Ok I'll rephrase that, there will be people on here who do want trump to win, but is there anyone willing to admit that publicly? 

I don't think that having Trump as President would be as bad as we imagine. A number of his positions are to the left of mainstream Republicans and would be more socially responsible to our eyes. In areas where he didn't have a developed view, he has simply adopted the mainstream GOP position, so would be no better or worse than a traditional Republican President. On his headline policies, he'd get the irrelevant wall, but the more extreme ones would get tied up in Congress and never happen. The main tension would be around his isolationism, both anti-trade protectionism and non-intervention in world affairs, though it's hard to know to what extent either would come to pass.

I'm actually surprised, though, that you're not on the Trump train. I would have thought he was right up your and arbboy's street.

Wanted to see what page this diary was at on election day last time (page 73 or so) and came across this post.

On reflection, MT, would you revise the opinion in the first line :-)

Are you staying up all night, any plans to post any updates through the night ?

Wow, just summarise the last four years. Leaving 2020 out, I don't think the first three years were as bad as they could have been. The organisation in the White House was chaotic, especially in the first year. There have been so many senior staff comings and goings that it's a wonder anything got done. Most of his closest associates are no longer with him, and an embarrassing number of them are in prison. I remember during the mayhem of the first two years, we used to say "Thank God there hasn't been a crisis - imagine what they'll be like if there is one."

Many of the failures are obvious. He couldn't get much done on healthcare. America's image is in the gutter round the world and the country is more openly divided, with controversial groups more apparent. Already-existing environmental policies have taken a battering, topped by withdrawing from the Climate Agreement. Some Cabinet picks were installed to damage their Departments, which they did, though they would call it removing bureaucracy and red tape. Tillerson, in particular, decimated the State Department and destroyed decades of built-up knowledge.

Foreign Affairs has been horrible. Trump generally messed up everything with Europe, Russia, China, North Korea and anyone else you can think of. He caused mayhem in the Middle East by withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal, combined with a series of questionable decisions on Syria and Afghanistan. On the other hand, he kept the US out of wars and didn't dabble in other countries' affairs too much, as he said he would.

There have been successes, prison reform being the one that comes to mind first, which was mainly thanks to Kushner. They inherited a boom with plummeting unemployment and pretended it was their doing, but at least didn't destroy it. Several of the Cabinet were decent picks who kept things going. They would also point to other achievements, which we would view as negatives, such as Court appointments and tax reform.

Has it been as bad as we imagined? Or about what we thought it would be? I would say that, overall, it's been horrific, both in their intent, and the incompetence with which they've gone about it, but it could have been worse.

Steve Hilton presents a decent defence of Trump's Presidency, emphasising promises kept, in the first 4½ minutes of this (warning - he dissembles about jobs, taxes, energy, North Korea, the Middle East, etc). I wouldn't bother with the rest of it.
 


And yes, I'll be staying up, and I'm sure I won't be able to resist posting thoughts as the news starts rolls in.

Thanks , appreciate the response - sounds like a fair summary, I think I'd be a bit more benevolent about his Foreign affairs policy but at the same time I think this is offset to a very large degree by the image of the US around the world and the kind of laughing stock status they enjoy with so many countries.

Just woke up, it's looking a lot closer than expected, fascinating stuff especially considering the way things will go from here if it remains close
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nirvana
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« Reply #4332 on: November 04, 2020, 03:23:10 AM »

Was watching Brillo and tried a bit of CNN.

CNN has great detail reviewing county by county at times with total votes counted, split so far and an insight into the kind of demographic of the county
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« Reply #4333 on: November 04, 2020, 03:27:12 AM »

Was watching Brillo and tried a bit of CNN.

CNN has great detail reviewing county by county at times with total votes counted, split so far and an insight into the kind of demographic of the county

That guy is an absolute machine. He doesn't stop.
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Longy
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« Reply #4334 on: November 04, 2020, 03:28:39 AM »

Can get 4.5 for Biden on BF at the mo.

The market is pretty volatile to say the least, moving slightly back to Biden now.

Overall this is going to be very close, as Arizona looks good for Biden, which means their are scenarios with a tie that are pretty realistic.
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