NFL 2017-18 season

[Doobs]

You score a touchdown to go 19-28 in the fourth quarter.

Do you:

a) Take the extra point, leave yourself 8 points behind so one score away.

b) Go for 2, meaning if you get it, you still need a touchdown and if you don't, you need two scores?

If you answered (a), you're never going to get a job in Cleveland but, good news, you're clinically sane.

Does it make a difference?

You need to hit 2 points this time or next time.  If you miss the 2 pointer you go for, you still need an extra score.  Either way 2 scores is not enough.  Might be better to go now, if it is the time the defence least expects it?  This ignores the different psycholigical impacts on both teams of an 8 or 9 point difference. 

[Tal]

They needed 2 at some point. Went for it then instead of the next score? I can see their thinking. I had Browns +7 so good for me either way :/

Need Cowboys +4 for a nice little 4 fold to land

But you throw away the game if you don't get the conversion. That's exactly what they did, too.

Good luck with your acca.

I predicted a team from the Super Bowl wouldn't make the playoffs. Granted, not this one...

[Tal]

You score a touchdown to go 19-28 in the fourth quarter.

Do you:

a) Take the extra point, leave yourself 8 points behind so one score away.

b) Go for 2, meaning if you get it, you still need a touchdown and if you don't, you need two scores?

If you answered (a), you're never going to get a job in Cleveland but, good news, you're clinically sane.

Does it make a difference?

You need to hit 2 points this time or next time.  If you miss the 2 pointer you go for, you still need an extra score.  Either way 2 scores is not enough.  Might be better to go now, if it is the time the defence least expects it?  This ignores the different psycholigical impacts on both teams of an 8 or 9 point difference. 

Teams will be prepared either way as the offense will be on the field for the 2.

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but the certainty of being 8 behind seems far better than the possibility of being either 7 or 9 behind.

[Doobs]

I have had a look around, and there are charts saying you should do as you say Tal, but.

Say chance of 1 point conversion = 0.95 and chance of 2 point conversion = 0.5

Chance of 1 point then 2 = .95 x .5.  Chance of 2 point then 1 = .5 x .95.

.5 x .95 = .95 x .5.

Other than the psychological effect of been 1 score away, I don't see the difference.  The psychology thing should only be a minor secondary effect, but humans are weird.

It is getting late, so not going to worry about this much more, would be good to see some proof that one is better than tge other.

 

[the sicilian]

Early doors in NFL are my current favourites the Oakland Raiders Total points line.

Raiders are fantastic in offense and dire in defence which creates a sublime paradox of potential shootouts against any opponent, of the 5 games so far this season only one of them has been under 55 points.. the exception being against Baltimore who have one of the most lacklustre offences in recent times and a defense that continues to be stingy in all departments.

This trend seems set to continue and I see no reason to oppose the over points market any time soon. Sunday brings the Kansas chiefs to Oakland… offensively they are no better than average but against this Raiders D.. 24 points + looks likely.. defensively they seem to have lost a step from recent years and gave up 43 last week to a rampant Pittsburgh.

Carr ( in the form of his short career ) and a balanced Raiders run ( even without Murray ) pass attack look set to pile in another 28+ score.. Carr can hit instantly from anywhere on the field to elite deep threats like Crabtree and Cooper.

Recommend over 46.5 Total Points

 

New Orleans host Carolina in the Superdome in a potential shootout.. although Carolina’s offense even with Newton at the helm has looked patchy at best.

Defensively Carolina seem a shadow of their former selves and now with two rookie corner backs and struggling to get to the QB they have the potential to get scorched by a top NFL QB. Drew Brees is that QB, the future hall of fame lock is a secondary’s nightmare.. he can shred you anytime anywhere and has the ability to keep a play alive even when the protection breaks down and when in the superdome with that crowd.. the danger is multiplied.Even without a running game Brees can still destroy a team.If this one turns into a Wild West shootout as many expect Brees is going to be firing bombs all day long.

So the generous line for New Orleans total points of over 24 is a must. At home Saints have only failed to score less than 26 points once in the last ten home games ( and put up 38 in this fixture last year when Carolina’s defense was one of the most feared )

We spoke already regarding the Raiders game and the line for the Raiders points is 22.5…??

Kansas defense numbers so far this season are a little misleading.. they restricted the Jets and the Texans in points.. you know those two powerhouse offenses ranked 24th and dead last respectively. You would kind of expect them to show up good against those.. so what happened when they came up against teams that can score.. San Diego put 27 past them in Kansas and the Steelers buried them for 43 last time out. Raiders offense is ranked top 5 and should be able to muster more than 22.5 against the deceptively 17th ranked Kansas Defense

Recommend

Sainta over 24 points

Raiders over 22.5 Points

Singles and a double on this line

Raiders turned the ball over on several occasions .. Kansas performed as expected with 26 points ( predicted 24 ) raiders just didn't hold up their end for the bet to come in.

Saints over 24 was like printing money.. smashed 41 past the ailing Panthers

[the sicilian]

Ok.. my bet of the week.. was waiting for the line to see if the compilers were going to be lazy..and yes they are🙂

LeSean McCoy over 87.5 rushing yards…

The Bills are a run first offense and McCoy is in great form.. Bills have the 3rd best rush offense in the league avg 137 yards per game.. they come up against our old friends the 49’s who have the 2nd worst rush defense in the league averaging 146 yards to opposing runners and have lost their defense general linebacker Bowman for the season.

McCoy has run for 58,59,110,70 and 150 yards in each of his games.. but lets look closer.. the 58 and 59 totals game against the Ravens and Jets number 4 and 2 in rush defense..so a tough time would be expected he ran 110 v Arizona 23 rd rush defense 70 v New England 9th ranked and last week tore the Rams up for 150 who rank.. 28th in the league.

So not hard to figure out.. but the compilers have basically added up and divided by 5 and you get 89.4.. many lines are at 89.5..B365 currently 87.5.. so no account has been taken for the opposition etc..etc.. just average it up and bang a line out there..remember the 49’s last game against Johnson we had.. he ripped them for 157 yards.. McCoy in a run first offense v this rush D..should have 100 + ..

Glad to see my homework paid off .. McCoy smashed that 49 er defense for 140 Yards and 3 TD... will be looking for runners v this D all season

[the sicilian]

The dreaded @ Patriots week.Good luck today with your bets Sicilian and cavey,I've gone for an anytime touchdown patent of West,Jones and Bernard.Also thrown away £50 bengals 3/1 £50 bengals +13 winning margin 25/1 in hope of a bounce back game that's highly unlikely.

good luck.. my anytime TD acca goes murray Tennessea..brown Steeleers..hyde frisco and nelson GB

im awful at TD scorers LOL

[TightEnd]

really like this photo

Click to see full-size image.

dolphins have done a great job on that stadium refurb too

[ruud]

anyone going to the first game at Twickers this weekend?

[Cavey007]

The dreaded @ Patriots week.Good luck today with your bets Sicilian and cavey,I've gone for an anytime touchdown patent of West,Jones and Bernard.Also thrown away £50 bengals 3/1 £50 bengals +13 winning margin 25/1 in hope of a bounce back game that's highly unlikely.

good luck.. my anytime TD acca goes murray Tennessea..brown Steeleers..hyde frisco and nelson GB

im awful at TD scorers LOL

I tipped up Gillislee. LaFell and Kuhn at big odds and won on Murray too. Few lovely little earners at 11/4 and 10/3

BIlal Powell is my bigger odds for the night. Around 3/1. He's been getting equal snaps to Forte and playing better. They'll need to try and get the ground game going otherwise they'll just be letting Fitz throw it to Matthieu and his mates all night. It's big at that price

[Tal]

anyone going to the first game at Twickers this weekend?

Yes. Is it a royal pain to get to? Some of us folk are heading from north of Watford and it looks like it'll take longer to get to Richmond from Euston than it takes to get to Euston from Birmingham.

Thought London was supposed to have transport links

[ruud]

anyone going to the first game at Twickers this weekend?

Yes. Is it a royal pain to get to? Some of us folk are heading from north of Watford and it looks like it'll take longer to get to Richmond from Euston than it takes to get to Euston from Birmingham.

Thought London was supposed to have transport links

Was hoping you'd be able to help me!!! I'm coming from Notts sonny train goes to st Pancras and it looks like it's gonna be a challenge to get there to say the least!!!

[Ironside]

such a bad game tonight

[tikay]

anyone going to the first game at Twickers this weekend?

Yes. Is it a royal pain to get to? Some of us folk are heading from north of Watford and it looks like it'll take longer to get to Richmond from Euston than it takes to get to Euston from Birmingham.

Thought London was supposed to have transport links

Now now, it has amazingly good transport links, plus, as a bonus, you get to enjoy the engineering marvel of the London Underground system, as well as the stunning punctuality & reliability of South West Trains.

Assume you will get the big train to Euston?

Then you want a Northern Line train southbound (that's the black line on Underground maps) direct to Waterloo. These run every 2 minutes on a Saturday. Journey time is 16 minutes.

From Waterloo, you want the Twickenham train, these run 12 times an hour this Sunday, & it takes around 30 minutes on a stopper.  

So, from Euston to Twickenham in less than an hour allowing for changes.

It's a short walk to the Stadium from Twickenham Station, or you can alight at St Margarets, which is a slightly longer but more pleasant walk.

I'm guessing you have not been to Twickers before? It's a fine, fine stadium by UK standards. The oddity, which has always bemused me, is that right opposite Twickenham Stadium - & I do mean right opposite, literally the other side of the A316 - is The Stoop, which is home to Harlequins. Land costs in London being what they are, that's just bizarre.  

The Stoop Car Park is the VIP & Media Car Park for Twickenham Stadium on match days, it's that close.

Both stadiums can be seen in this photo;

[tikay]

anyone going to the first game at Twickers this weekend?

Yes. Is it a royal pain to get to? Some of us folk are heading from north of Watford and it looks like it'll take longer to get to Richmond from Euston than it takes to get to Euston from Birmingham.

Thought London was supposed to have transport links

Was hoping you'd be able to help me!!! I'm coming from Notts sonny train goes to st Pancras and it looks like it's gonna be a challenge to get there to say the least!!!

Not at all.

From St Pancras Station (which is, effectively, the same place as Kings Cross Station), you can use the Northern Line, but it involves quite a trek at St Pancras, so better to take the Victoria Line to Green Park, then Jubilee Line to Waterloo.