Africa Cup of Nations 2017 Preview

African Nations Preview

Afcon: A Summary

The 31st edition of the African Nations begins on Saturday 14th January when hosts Gabon take on Guinea-Bissau at the Stade de l’Amitie in Libreville. The tournament has a standard format of 16 teams forming 4 groups of 4, from which the 2 highest placed teams qualify for the quarter finals.

The competition’s history has seen 14 different winners and with an open look to the betting for this year’s renewal, few would write off the chances of 2nd favourites Senegal or hosts Gabon adding to this tally.

The winners will qualify for this summer’s Confederations Cup in Russia with 7 of the 8 man field already confirmed from other recent Continental Championships.

Weather in Gabon could be an issue during the tournament with thunderstorms currently occurring daily. In lieu of this it’s worth making sure you are aware of bookamker rules.

The final will be played at 8pm on Sunday 5th February and could act as a nice warm up for punters who are eagerly awaiting the Superbowl later that evening, particularly with 2 of the last 3 finals going all the way to penalties.

Contenders

Gabon @ 10.0
Group A opponents: Cameroon, Burkina Faso & Guinea-Bissau
Nickname: The Panthers

This year’s hosts hopes rest squarely on the shoulders of the best current African footballer, striker and captain, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.

Currently rumoured to be subject to a bid from China in the region of £127m Aubameyang will attempt to put transfer talk aside as he focuses on improving his international goal scoring record of 21 goals in 52 games. Key players include defensive midfielder Didier N’Dong who this summer became Sunderland’s record signing at £13.6m and has looked every part the finished article in the premier league, along with Juventus’ 23 year old central midfielder Mario Lemina and Cardiff centre back Bruno Ecuele Manga.

Gabon will look to these key players to guide through their paces a first XI with an average age of under 25. Although they have a solid spine, the area in which I think Gabon will struggle, and this is by no means uncommon in African football, is in scoring goals. Evidence of this can be seen with their two most recent competitive fixtures resulting in 0-0 draws against Morocco and Mali. I expect the hosts to win their group but I feel they may come up just short in the next round against likely Group B qualifiers Senegal or Algeria.

Cameroon @ 10.00
Group A opponents: Gabon, Burkina Faso & Guinea-Bissau
Nickname: The Indomitable Lions

I have a sneaky suspicion Cameroon will not prove to be quite as difficult to conquer as their nickname suggests. Unbeaten in qualifying but all 4 wins came against Mauritania and Gambia with 2 draws against South Africa. They posted a goals tally of just 7 in these 6 games.

The squad for this tournament has been seriously weakened as first choice defenders Joel Matip (Liverpool), Allan Nyom (West Brom) and Ibrahim Amadaou (Lille) are 3 of 7 players to reject call ups. Les Lions still have significant attacking threats in striker Vincent Aboubakar (Besiktas) and support striker Clinton N’Jie who moved to Spurs for £8.3m last summer but they are not the Cameroon side of old.

I expect them to compete with Burkina Faso for group qualification but with Algeria or Senegal likely to be waiting in the Quarter Finals, I strongly feel that a current market price of 10.00 over-estimates their chances of winning this tournament. If laying at prices is your game then lay lay lay away.

Algeria @ 8.4
Group B opponents: Senegal, Tunisia, Zimbabwae
Nickname: The Desert Warriors

There is no doubting the attacking quality of Algeria. Their forward quartet of Riyad Mahrez and Islam Slimani of Leicester, along with Brahimi of Porto and Soudani of Dinamo Zagreb (top scorer in qualifying with 7) makes up the best attacking threat in the tournament with well over £100m of talent. They scored 25 goals in 6 qualifying games, a tally no other African side got close to against similarly weak opponents.

Where I think this current Algeria side is lacking is in the defensive area of their midfield and in defence. In recent competitive games they have conceded 3 against Ethiopia and Nigeria and 2 against Tanzania. They have attempted to re-model these areas of the team since their strong display in the 2014 world cup and maybe this tournament will come too soon for such a big overhaul.

I fully expect Algeria to come through Group B alongside Senegal and wouldn’t be surprised to see a bold showing. I have too many question marks about Algeria to take an outright interest but will be looking to back them in the goals markets (see Betting Angles).

Senegal @ 6.8
Group B opponents: Algeria, Tunisia, Zimbabwae
Nickname: The Lions of Teranga

Senegal were the only side from 13 groups to win all 6 qualification games. Their group was by no means strong, with opponents including Burundi, Namibia and Niger, but nonetheless this gives an indication that they are a side to take seriously.

Of all the teams in the Africa Cup of Nations this year I rate Senegal’s squad the strongest from back to front. Their spine is very strong with the afore mentioned Kouliably (a recent Chelsea target) and Mbodj of Anderlect making up the central defensive partnership, behind a central midfield core of Cheikhou Kouyate, Idrissa Gueye and Mohammed Diame, all of whom ply their trade in the higher echelons of the English game. These three players I am particularly keen on, I rate all as strong, fast footballers who showcase ability in both phases of the game.

The forward positions include Sadio Mane of Liverpool and Moussa Konate of FC Sion who was recently linked with Tottenham Hotspur. Other players of note include Mame Biram Diouf (Stoke) and Moussa Sow (Fenerbache). An indication of the strength of this Senegal squad can be seen in the decision to omit Everton’s Oumar Niasse, a player who has admittedly not featured for The Toffees much this season, but still cost them £13.5m and would walk into most AFCON squads.

I believe Senegal the most likely winners of the competition and look forward to their group game against Algeria which is clearly “the tie” of the group games. Likely Quarter Final opponents are Gabon or Cameroon, either of which I expect them to move past.

Ivory Coast @ 5.1
Group C opponents: Togo, Morocco, DR Congo
Nickname: The Elephants

Reigning AFCON champions and tournament favourites Cote d’Ivoire promise to be as competitive as ever. This year’s squad features the best back four in the tournament, with regular starters including PSG’s Serge Aurier , Man Utd’s Eric Bailly and Lamine Kone of Sunderland. Proof of this solidity can be seen with their last 3 matches ending in 0-0 stalemates, these coming against Zimbabwae, Morocco and more impressively, taking on a strong French side in Lens.

One weakness of this Ivory Coast defensive line could be between the sticks. Fifteen year stalwart Boubacar Barry announced his international retirement last year and current no.1 Sylvain Gbohouo plays his club football in the Congolese football league.

Results in qualifying were unspectacular, they topped a 3 team group with 6 points from 4 games but their opponents were Sierra Leone and Sudan and they mustered a total of just 3 goals. With the international retirement of Yaya Toure and with long term injury ruling Gervinho out I wonder if they lack some of the attacking prowess that previous Ivory Coast sides have had in their arsenal. Wilfried Zaha will certainly help in this aspect, the uncapped winger having being added to the squad at the late stages but he may take time to settle.

Group C is the least competitive group and The Elephants should cruise through in top spot. They would then likely face Egypt or Ghana in the least 8, either of which should more of a test. Plenty of strengths but also plenty of weaknesses about this Ivory Coast side and at a price of 5.1, I’d be looking to take them on.

Egypt @ 9.8
Group D opponents: Ghana, Mali, Uganda
Nickname: The Pharaohs

A 7 year absence from international competition due to devastating failure in qualifying has seen this formerly proud footballing nation succumb to a backseat role but there are sure signs that the record 7 time African Nations champions are on their way back.

Unbeaten in qualifying, they conceded only 1 goal and are the reason Nigeria failed to qualify, deservedly beating them 1-0 in Cairo. Results have continued to impress in the lead up to this tournament with recent victories in World Cup 2018 Qualifying against DR Congo and group D rivals Ghana.

Their current team features the oldest player in the championships in the form of 43 year old goalkeeper and captain Essam El Hadary. He is one of 12 players from the 23 man squad who ply their trade in the Egyptian league and looking at the player list it is fair to say their overall look appears somewhat of an unknown quantity. More familiar players to UK football fans include Ahmed El Mohamady (Hull), Mohamed El Nenny (Arsenal), Ramadam Sobhi (Stoke) and star player, Mohamed Salah of AS Roma.

The race for top spot in Group D promises to be hard fought, the winners likely to avoid favourites Ivory Coast in the last eight and instead face Morocco or DR Congo. Write off this Egypt side at your peril, they could go very well and there could be a little mileage in an outright price of 9.8.

Ghana @ 10.00
Group D opponents: Egypt, Mali, Uganda
Nickname: The Black Stars

Despite a brave performance in the 2014 World Cup when drawing 2-2 with champions Germany, Ghana were ultimately disappointed as defeats against USA and Portugal subjected them to a haul of just 1 point. What followed may have proved even more damaging to their long term hopes as Sulley Muntari and Kevin Prince Boateng criticised both staff and the Ghanaian football federation and neither have featured since.

Ghana have stumbled in World Cup 2018 qualifying with a loss to Egypt and a damaging 0-0 home draw with Uganda (both Group D opponents here) and they haven’t won in 5 competitive games. In fact, they have only 4 goals in their last 9 matches.

The Black Stars are still strong defensively with Daniel Amartey of Leicester dropping back from his DM position for his club side to feature as central defensive lynch pin, assisted by Jonathan Mensah and Baba Rahman of Chelsea (on loan at Schalke). But the electricity of their attack seems to have gone. Andre Ayew has been frequently injured for West Ham and the likes of Jordan Ayew and Christian Atsu are currently struggling to make an impact in the English Championship.

I believe they will be competing with Mali for runner up spot In Group D but reigning champions Ivory Coast could be awaiting in the Quarter Finals. They are too short in the outright market at 10.0 and should be opposed.

Outright Betting Tips

BACK
2pts Senegal @ 6/1
1pt Egypt @ 10/1

Betting Angles

Goals

The African Nations is a very low scoring tournament, the average group goals per game in 2015 was a paltry 1.875. Compare this to the English Premier League which over the last 5 seasons averages out at 2.55 goals per game. Hot conditions and the lack of ability of some sides can help explain this, but I expect matches featuring Algeria to break the mould and I hope the market underestimates the possibility of this.

BACK the over 2.5 & over 3.5 goals (and higher if you’re brave enough!) in matches featuring Algeria.

Burkina Faso

The only team I had earmarked as potential dark horses, Burkina Faso could upset the applecart somewhat and qualify from Group A.

The stallions had a longer qualifying process than most, having to come through a two legged tie against Benin to even make the group stages. They then went on to top a group containing Uganda, Botswana and Comoros.

Whilst there isn’t much form on offer hence their outright price of 44.0, I like the spine of this side. At the back they have Bakary Kone (Malaga) and Steve Yago (Toulouse) in the centre, both regular starters at their club, whilst in midfield they have Charles Kabore (Krasnodar) and Alain and Abdou Traore whom both appear in the Turkish Super Ligue. These all support star player Bertrand Traore of Chelsea (on loan at Ajax) who rose to prominence scoring 4 goals in 5 games for the English club last season.

Given the nondescript nature of their squad and their lack of footballing history I feel Burkina Faso have been underrated in the markets. Back them to get a result against Cameroon and to beat Guinea-Bissau because I feel you will get a bigger price than you should.

LAY Cameroon vs Burkina Faso in match day 1 at around 2.2

BACK Burkina Faso at anything above 4/6 against Guinea-Bissau on match day 3.

Goalkeepers

It is an old cliché to say that Africa produces a far higher standard of outfield player than goalkeeper but the fact still remains that in the top ten leagues in Europe there are no African Keepers. The 2015 African Nations was littered with goalkeeping mistakes and there is a significantly bigger gap in quality between some of the keepers in this tournament than there is in say a Euro 2016. This means the ability level of the keeper is a much more pertinent angle than is usually the case.

The below tables gives some more information on the starting keeper for each team. Whilst the quality of keeper isn’t a factor which should decide your viewpoint on the match completely, it is certainly worth bearing in mind when weighing up a trade in the match or total goals markets.

Group A.
Country   Name   Age   Caps   League    Comments
Burkina Faso   Kouakou Koffi   20   3   Ivory Coast Ligue 1   Poor league
Cameroon   Fabrice Ondoa   21   11   Spanish Segunda   Rarely gets a club game
Gabon   Didier Ovono   33   97   Belgian Pro League   Standout, strong keeper
Guinea-Bissau   Jonas Mendes   27   20   Portuguese Div 3   Can’t get a club game

Group B.
Country   Name   Age   Caps   League    Comments
Algeria   Rais M’Bolhi   30   49   Turkish Super Lig   Experienced, good keeper
Senegal   Abdoulaye Diallo   24   9   Turkish Super Lig   Okay but loaned out by Rennes
Tunisia   Aymen Mathlouthi   32   60   Tunisian Super Lig   Best in domestic African leagues
Zimbabwae   Donovan Bernard   21   10   Zimbabwae Premier   Poor league, inexperienced

Group C.
Country   Name   Age   Caps   League    Comments
DR Congo   Ley Matampi   27   21   Congolese Premier   2nd choice at club
Ivory Coast   Sylvain Gbohouo   28   24   Congolese Premier   Poor league
Morocco   Munir Mohamedi   27   12   Spanish Segunda   Good league, first choice at club
Togo   Kossi Agassa   38   66   Free Agent   Decent keeper, 167 apps at Reims

Group D.
Country   Name   Age   Caps   League    Comments
Egypt   Essam El Hadary   43   147   Egyptian Super Lig   Old & experienced. Also captain
Ghana   Brimah Razak   29   23   Spanish Segunda   Regular starter for club
Mali   Oumar Sissoko   29   23   French Ligue 2   Infrequent starter for club
Uganda   Denis Ontango   29   54   South African Prem   Poor league