$10000 Main Event I'm out
This one is standard. An insanely puke spot but I just can't change any actions.
Seat nine is a new Norwegian. He has played massively Scandie. The previous pot, he check raised all in with a gut shot for a 180k pot on the turn, and won.
Seat one is passive and inexperienced, but hasn't seemed too inexperienced yet. (He turns out to be more so)
During what happened, I hated the implication of every step along the way, but don't think I can change anything.
I raise
UTG2. Seat six (the subject of previous posts, the most inexperienced of all) flats. Scandie makes it 20k. Seat one fairly quickly cold calls the big. Feels like it must be TT-QQ or AK, but already feeling like it is the pair.
I make it 60k. Scandie folds. From what I had seen so far, I (incorrectly) expected that if it got through the Scandie, seat one would give the long tank, speech and fold.
Seat one now super-snap calls the 60k. Wow. I guess he is more interesting than I had realised. He is playing the almost exact same starting stack as me.
Flop is
(I have
)
He is all in within a heartbeat.
There's almost no doubt that he's pulling the move that went out of fashion in about 2007; that he has jacks or tens and was waiting for a safe flop. Oh, to have the JJ-AA that is the only other part of my range.
There's a small chance of AK, and if it is, it's more likely the diamond. But with a two to one weighting against the ace of diamonds, it feels like his rare AK holdings come to neutral EV.
To be honest, I basically have no doubt that it's TT, JJ or QQ, In which case, whether he has a diamond only makes the difference of one out.
So, I spend my four minute tank just deciding whether I want to call off 140k for a near race for 436k. I decide I have to. It would definitely be right to fold if my call was a smaller plus EV, but 50%/50% at better than 2 to 1 is just too far above EV to fold.
He does indeed have black tens. A hand that a third of my range (overpair with diamond) has crushed at one out, a third (overpair without diamond) crushed at two outs, and half of the other third (AK with diamond) at 50/50.
So horrible for circumstances to lead to a 436k race. Ultimately, the reason is actually the Scandie sitting down and skewing the action. I guess the dream of eight passive spots before that couldn't last for ever.
We miss.
Feel crushed. It's always crushing to bust the main, but it's so gutting to have to take a 436k race at that table. I have regrets about earlier pots, but this one just played out in a disgusting way, I don't think I can make any action differently.
Thanks so much for the rail and support guys. It's been alot of fun. Busting the main for such a big spot will take some time to get over, but I'll look back on a really fun Summer, and am so thankful to the backers to have been able to play that schedule, and to everyone for their support. Stu
Author