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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 354005 times)
kukushkin88
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« Reply #2655 on: May 30, 2020, 07:46:58 AM »

I have copied this from Andrew Liliico (who I disagree with 90% of the time) but it sums up here we are and why we are stuck.

“This ..... illustrates a key problem at the heart of the govt's (for want of a better word) "strategy". It doesn't believe eradication is possible; it doesn't believe spread is acceptable; but CV is too infectious for behaviour that could contain it to be sustainable”

I think it adequately sums up where we are. Shortish (relatively), harsh (relatively) lockdown followed by effective contact tracing should still be on the table but politically really difficult now.

Who is Andrew Lilico? (I don’t know if you have insight beyond what is in his bio?) Some of his stuff on why Cummings didn’t break the rules is lol (and a bit tilting), he seems to lurch between quite sensible and pure nonsense.
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« Reply #2656 on: May 30, 2020, 08:41:05 AM »

I have copied this from Andrew Liliico (who I disagree with 90% of the time) but it sums up here we are and why we are stuck.

“This ..... illustrates a key problem at the heart of the govt's (for want of a better word) "strategy". It doesn't believe eradication is possible; it doesn't believe spread is acceptable; but CV is too infectious for behaviour that could contain it to be sustainable”

I think it adequately sums up where we are. Shortish (relatively), harsh (relatively) lockdown followed by effective contact tracing should still be on the table but politically really difficult now.

Who is Andrew Lilico? (I don’t know if you have insight beyond what is in his bio?) Some of his stuff on why Cummings didn’t break the rules is lol (and a bit tilting), he seems to lurch between quite sensible and pure nonsense.

He is an economist, Brexitor extreme, I would guess has links with if not has friends in Tufton street groups.

England is “in lockdown” yet has 8,000 new CV cases a day, this version of lockdown is not working.

Either we need extreme lockdown for 3 weeks, no food shops,  no exercise and we go for zero cases in the UK then ban anyone entering the UK from anywhere for the next 5 years. (Bit of a problem as we import so much of our food)

Or get infections up to 300,000 cases a day, Hurd immunity will be in place by September (slight drawback to this plan is the quarter of a million deaths)

So we have the current plan to have 10k new cases a day, 100 deaths a day and cross our fingers this doesn’t ’increase and something comes along before it does.  (This is not an equilibrium)

I keep returning to The Camels comment - were fucked aren’t we
« Last Edit: May 30, 2020, 08:42:58 AM by neeko » Logged

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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2657 on: May 30, 2020, 08:44:13 AM »


It would be interesting if anyone was able to provide evidence in support of the ‘they (U.K gov) did their best on what was known at the time and were just unlucky’ narrative that seems to be a popular view in the thread.

https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1266423527739215874?s=21

This lady has good credentials to make a judgement.

Do you mean like,

"& oh wow- some of the conclusions they reached were way off. 8th SAGE meeting: 'When there is sustained transmission in the UK, contact tracing will no longer be useful."

When there is sustained transmission in the UK - why do you think contact tracing would be useful?

What, to you, is the purpose of contact tracing?


"15th SAGE meeting- March 13: 'SAGE was unanimous that measures seeking to completely suppress spread of COVID-19 will cause a second peak.' 'Community testing is ending today.' 'The science suggests household isolation...of the elderly and vulnerable should be implemented soon.'"

How is this controversial?


"16th SAGE meeting: 'The objective is to avoid critical cases exceeding NHS intensive care and other respiratory support bed capacity.'"

Again - isn't this kind of what the government was suggesting was the strategy all along? There may be a suspicion that it lead to some excess deaths because of the overwhelming focus on 'protecting the NHS' but what we had at that time was doctors in Italy basically choosing who was going to live and die because their hospitals were overwhelmed so I think that links quite clearly to making decisions based on what was known at the time.


Her tone seems to be very much "OMG" but none of what she's posting seems particularly surprising, unknown or contrary to general epidemiological knowledge.

I am pretty much in agreement on the above, if she has read through the minutes and that is all she has got then it doesn't seem that an OMG thread is needed.  Some of it is already known and I have read that one from the 16th SAGE meeting a few times and struggle to see what the issue is at all.  If intensive care was ovewhelmed it was clearly going to get really shitty (and it did at times), so why wouldn't you want to try really hard to keep within that limit and how can it be way off?  Way off suggests you want to go above intensive care capacity??  

If we look at her commeny on the 7th SAGE minutes: What is controversial about "China will be UNABLE to contain the epidemic"?   They clearly didn't contain it, we know that now, so how can it have been a bad assumption?  And you can read this bit as controversial "SAGE concluded that neither travel restrictions within the UK nor prevention of mass gatherings would be effective in limiting transmission.'"  

But then you read the whole section and it says "6. SAGE discussed a range of potential measures to delay spread, based on a paper by SPI-M.
7. SAGE concluded that travel restrictions within the UK, unless draconian and fully adhered to, would not be effective in limiting transmission. They would also be ineffective if Covid-19 cases were already established in the UK.
8. There is no current evidence to suggest prevention of mass gatherings is effective in limiting transmission. Public actions in the absence of a mass gathering could have comparable impacts (e.g. watching a football match in a pub instead of a stadium as likely to spread the disease).

You could debate it, and down the line you may conclude it was a mistake, but even now I can read that and don't think wow that's mad.  They look like they have considered it, and explained why they didn't take those actions.  FWIW I am pretty sure that was all published ages ago, as it looks very familiar.

Some of it does look a bit shaky, but that thread seems "way off".


I think (of course I don’t know) that all she is driving at is this:

https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1266628117805903873?s=21

In conversation with Jeremy Hunt on Twitter.

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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2658 on: May 30, 2020, 09:00:15 AM »

I have copied this from Andrew Liliico (who I disagree with 90% of the time) but it sums up here we are and why we are stuck.

“This ..... illustrates a key problem at the heart of the govt's (for want of a better word) "strategy". It doesn't believe eradication is possible; it doesn't believe spread is acceptable; but CV is too infectious for behaviour that could contain it to be sustainable”

I think it adequately sums up where we are. Shortish (relatively), harsh (relatively) lockdown followed by effective contact tracing should still be on the table but politically really difficult now.

Who is Andrew Lilico? (I don’t know if you have insight beyond what is in his bio?) Some of his stuff on why Cummings didn’t break the rules is lol (and a bit tilting), he seems to lurch between quite sensible and pure nonsense.

He is an economist, Brexitor extreme, I would guess has links with if not has friends in Tufton street groups.

England is “in lockdown” yet has 8,000 new CV cases a day, this version of lockdown is not working.

Either we need extreme lockdown for 3 weeks, no food shops,  no exercise and we go for zero cases in the UK then ban anyone entering the UK from anywhere for the next 5 years. (Bit of a problem as we import so much of our food)

Or get infections up to 300,000 cases a day, Hurd immunity will be in place by September (slight drawback to this plan is the quarter of a million deaths)

So we have the current plan to have 10k new cases a day, 100 deaths a day and cross our fingers this doesn’t ’increase and something comes along before it does.  (This is not an equilibrium)

I keep returning to The Camels comment - were fucked aren’t we

OK cool, thanks. I’ve tried to bring his attention to a few things on Twitter, that I hoped would help his understanding, mixed results so far 😊. He seems alright though. His pinned tweet is exactly (imo) what people should never say:

https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1260313141466075137?s=21

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« Reply #2659 on: May 30, 2020, 06:41:59 PM »

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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2660 on: May 30, 2020, 07:13:38 PM »


I wonder where Toby Young comes on Taleb’s scale for understanding probability:

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1266647031633850369?s=21

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1266725954505842688?s=21

It’s controversial both to share his opinions and to mock him (TY) I guess, couldn’t resist this one though.

As an aside, it’s hilarious what Taleb writes about Phil ‘the rat’.
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« Reply #2661 on: May 30, 2020, 07:53:41 PM »


I wonder where Toby Young comes on Taleb’s scale for understanding probability:

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1266647031633850369?s=21

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1266725954505842688?s=21

It’s controversial both to share his opinions and to mock him (TY) I guess, couldn’t resist this one though.

As an aside, it’s hilarious what Taleb writes about Phil ‘the rat’.

Toby Young is -1 l.   I think he understands some of the basics but just chooses to print the opposite because it is more profitable for him.
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« Reply #2662 on: May 31, 2020, 10:59:35 AM »

The shocking price of beating Covid-19 in the USA:

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/local-news/covid-survivor-receives-840-000-statement-for-treatment-with-more-on-the-way
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« Reply #2663 on: May 31, 2020, 01:23:14 PM »

So now vulnerable people being told to get out and about.

This is mad isn't it? Have the government just decided fuck it and double down on ending lockdown and see how it goes?
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2664 on: May 31, 2020, 01:43:55 PM »

So now vulnerable people being told to get out and about.

This is mad isn't it? Have the government just decided fuck it and double down on ending lockdown and see how it goes?

It’ll be a tough gig for whoever has to explain the scientific rationale behind this today. Most likely option will be to send out a scientist who doesn’t have a specific public health brief I guess.
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« Reply #2665 on: May 31, 2020, 02:23:35 PM »

So now vulnerable people being told to get out and about.

This is mad isn't it? Have the government just decided fuck it and double down on ending lockdown and see how it goes?

It’ll be a tough gig for whoever has to explain the scientific rationale behind this today. Most likely option will be to send out a scientist who doesn’t have a specific public health brief I guess.

Hope they don't all drop dead when they walk outside in the atmosphere within a couple of meters of someone - really is chicken licken stuff this.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2666 on: May 31, 2020, 02:35:23 PM »

So now vulnerable people being told to get out and about.

This is mad isn't it? Have the government just decided fuck it and double down on ending lockdown and see how it goes?

It’ll be a tough gig for whoever has to explain the scientific rationale behind this today. Most likely option will be to send out a scientist who doesn’t have a specific public health brief I guess.

Hope they don't all drop dead when they walk outside in the atmosphere within a couple of meters of someone - really is chicken licken stuff this.

It would be interesting to know how much additional immunity is conferred by reading The Telegraph 😊. 

The governments own guidance still says this action won’t be safe until Alert Level 1, we’re still at 4. It looks as though they can’t bring themselves to admit how badly this is going (relative to the rest of Europe bar Sweden) so they’re just gonna say we’re now at Level 1, they don’t appear to have anything other than a faint hope that they get lucky 🤞.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2667 on: May 31, 2020, 02:47:36 PM »

So now vulnerable people being told to get out and about.

This is mad isn't it? Have the government just decided fuck it and double down on ending lockdown and see how it goes?

It’ll be a tough gig for whoever has to explain the scientific rationale behind this today. Most likely option will be to send out a scientist who doesn’t have a specific public health brief I guess.

Hope they don't all drop dead when they walk outside in the atmosphere within a couple of meters of someone - really is chicken licken stuff this.

It would be interesting to know how much additional immunity is conferred by reading The Telegraph 😊. 

The governments own guidance still says this action won’t be safe until Alert Level 1, we’re still at 4. It looks as though they can’t bring themselves to admit how badly this is going (relative to the rest of Europe bar Sweden) so they’re just gonna say we’re now at Level 1, they don’t appear to have anything other than a faint hope that they get lucky 🤞.


Maybe it’s bravery rather than immunity that The Telegraph is giving you? People who are keen to hear the scientific rationale, have nothing to do with Chicken Licken* though.

* I really enjoyed that story when I was a kid.
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« Reply #2668 on: May 31, 2020, 03:22:35 PM »

So now vulnerable people being told to get out and about.

This is mad isn't it? Have the government just decided fuck it and double down on ending lockdown and see how it goes?

It’ll be a tough gig for whoever has to explain the scientific rationale behind this today. Most likely option will be to send out a scientist who doesn’t have a specific public health brief I guess.

Hope they don't all drop dead when they walk outside in the atmosphere within a couple of meters of someone - really is chicken licken stuff this.

It would be interesting to know how much additional immunity is conferred by reading The Telegraph 😊. 

The governments own guidance still says this action won’t be safe until Alert Level 1, we’re still at 4. It looks as though they can’t bring themselves to admit how badly this is going (relative to the rest of Europe bar Sweden) so they’re just gonna say we’re now at Level 1, they don’t appear to have anything other than a faint hope that they get lucky 🤞.


I am a Telegraph reader and I definitely haven’t contracted this disease. I’ve been out 4 days a week for the last  weeks delivering plants for our local Shaw Trust Garden Centre. No symptoms whatsoever.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #2669 on: May 31, 2020, 03:33:21 PM »

So now vulnerable people being told to get out and about.

This is mad isn't it? Have the government just decided fuck it and double down on ending lockdown and see how it goes?

It’ll be a tough gig for whoever has to explain the scientific rationale behind this today. Most likely option will be to send out a scientist who doesn’t have a specific public health brief I guess.

Hope they don't all drop dead when they walk outside in the atmosphere within a couple of meters of someone - really is chicken licken stuff this.

It would be interesting to know how much additional immunity is conferred by reading The Telegraph 😊. 

The governments own guidance still says this action won’t be safe until Alert Level 1, we’re still at 4. It looks as though they can’t bring themselves to admit how badly this is going (relative to the rest of Europe bar Sweden) so they’re just gonna say we’re now at Level 1, they don’t appear to have anything other than a faint hope that they get lucky 🤞.


I am a Telegraph reader and I definitely haven’t contracted this disease. I’ve been out 4 days a week for the last  weeks delivering plants for our local Shaw Trust Garden Centre. No symptoms whatsoever.


That’s cool and obviously great that you haven’t been ill, I suppose there is a small chance that you’ve had it completely asymptomatically, which would be great, if that’s provided you with some immunity.

I was just making the point that it’s a weird thing to have different views on, possibly based on newspaper/political affiliation. The risk presented to those who were told to shield is only a medical/scientific issue. I’d support freedom of choice for everyone but let’s not assume that the end of the shielding period is scientifically prudent, until they give us reason to.
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