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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 66705 times)
neeko
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« on: February 22, 2020, 04:06:22 PM »

So this virus will either kill half a million people in the uk or will be the biggest amount of hype since Corbyn election victory.

Does anyone have any interesting links to either the basic science or infection rates in different  countries?

The Chinese raw data is here

http://garnetcdn.migu.cn/lovebridge.html

Chinese data is of course impressionistic, linked to the truth but not exactly reflective of reality.
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bergeroo
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« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2020, 11:17:16 AM »

Very difficult to know how much is being hidden here with two of the hotspots being China and now Iran.

I have a trip booked to Asia on March 11th. Most of the poker festivals have been cancelled for the trip already. Was planning to go to Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam and Japan.

Not actually worried about getting the virus, but seems like it might not be such a fun trip. Lots of events cancelled, travel between countries maybe further restricted in the future. Certainly could be further outbreaks, developments in these countries over the next two months. May end up having to be in quarantine on my return or getting stranded?

Seems like I should knock the trip on the head at this point and go a different time there or travel somewhere else now.

Any opinions. I am submitting to fearmongering and hysteria?
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nirvana
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« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2020, 12:28:05 PM »

Very difficult to know how much is being hidden here with two of the hotspots being China and now Iran.

I have a trip booked to Asia on March 11th. Most of the poker festivals have been cancelled for the trip already. Was planning to go to Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam and Japan.

Not actually worried about getting the virus, but seems like it might not be such a fun trip. Lots of events cancelled, travel between countries maybe further restricted in the future. Certainly could be further outbreaks, developments in these countries over the next two months. May end up having to be in quarantine on my return or getting stranded?

Seems like I should knock the trip on the head at this point and go a different time there or travel somewhere else now.

Any opinions. I am submitting to fearmongering and hysteria?

I think life is rather good fun and so I'd err on the side of over caution and not take any risk by travelling to parts of Asia at the moment.
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« Reply #3 on: February 24, 2020, 12:45:43 PM »

Coronavirus is an anagram of carnivorous.

Not quite up there with Colin Wanker but just thought I'd put it out there.
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« Reply #4 on: February 24, 2020, 12:50:53 PM »

With significant outbreaks in South Korea (who knows what’s happening in the North?), Iran and now Italy, it seems likely that Covid19 will achieve official pandemic status in the very near future.

From everything I’ve read, it seems the fatalities are almost exclusively among the elderly, and in particular those with pre-existing health conditions. Symptoms for those under aged 45 are relatively mild. However, if there is a major infection rate here in the UK, the consequences will be yet more draining of already stretched NHS resources. So, if you’re not a victim of Covid, but in need of an NHS bed for an equally or more serious condition, you could be in trouble.

As for travel to the Far East, I think I’d make use of my travel insurance and cancel it until we’re on the other side of this.
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« Reply #5 on: February 24, 2020, 01:13:31 PM »

With significant outbreaks in South Korea (who knows what’s happening in the North?), Iran and now Italy, it seems likely that Covid19 will achieve official pandemic status in the very near future.

From everything I’ve read, it seems the fatalities are almost exclusively among the elderly, and in particular those with pre-existing health conditions. Symptoms for those under aged 45 are relatively mild. However, if there is a major infection rate here in the UK, the consequences will be yet more draining of already stretched NHS resources. So, if you’re not a victim of Covid, but in need of an NHS bed for an equally or more serious condition, you could be in trouble.

As for travel to the Far East, I think I’d make use of my travel insurance and cancel it until we’re on the other side of this.


I have trips booked to Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam leaving on March 13th. I doubt the insurance would shell out unless the Government advise against travel.
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bergeroo
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« Reply #6 on: February 24, 2020, 03:34:56 PM »

With significant outbreaks in South Korea (who knows what’s happening in the North?), Iran and now Italy, it seems likely that Covid19 will achieve official pandemic status in the very near future.

From everything I’ve read, it seems the fatalities are almost exclusively among the elderly, and in particular those with pre-existing health conditions. Symptoms for those under aged 45 are relatively mild. However, if there is a major infection rate here in the UK, the consequences will be yet more draining of already stretched NHS resources. So, if you’re not a victim of Covid, but in need of an NHS bed for an equally or more serious condition, you could be in trouble.

As for travel to the Far East, I think I’d make use of my travel insurance and cancel it until we’re on the other side of this.


I have trips booked to Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam leaving on March 13th. I doubt the insurance would shell out unless the Government advise against travel.

Yeah I also doubt the insurance will shell out at this stage unfortunately. Depending on your airline you may be able to reschedule or even cancel your flights. For myself I have nothing else booked so being a last minute planner has advantages in this case. But I am sure you will have lots of other things arranged.

I guess it all depends on how you think it might impact on the enjoyment of your trip. Obviously the problem is that things could escalate quickly, we just don't know what will happen.
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« Reply #7 on: February 24, 2020, 04:04:28 PM »

Given the spread of the disease already I don't think there will be many places you could go to and avoid the disease in a month or two.  So I think it must be a preference to go places with good medical treatment that you are covered for.  If you are going for a week or two I don't think it matters too much if you are young and can get back on the plane.   If you haven't got travel insurance, I'd get it sooner rather than later (either for cancellations or medical/evacuation bils).
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« Reply #8 on: February 24, 2020, 04:16:21 PM »

Given the spread of the disease already I don't think there will be many places you could go to and avoid the disease in a month or two.  So I think it must be a preference to go places with good medical treatment that you are covered for.  If you are going for a week or two I don't think it matters too much if you are young and can get back on the plane.   If you haven't got travel insurance, I'd get it sooner rather than later (either for cancellations or medical/evacuation bils).


I always buy insurance immediately after booking the trip. No point in buying it after things go pear-shaped.

I booked my trip a few days before the COVID 19 story broke.
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« Reply #9 on: February 24, 2020, 05:48:54 PM »

Why does this feel more worthy of concern than say Flu which picks off loads of old and people with pre-existing conditions year after year.

Is it as simple as 'we don't have a vaccine' so we worry more or does it transmit more readily, or are there more reasons why we should be more concerned than we are about flu (I mean zillions of people don't bother with flu jabs despite the evidence all around that it can be quite serious).
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« Reply #10 on: February 24, 2020, 05:55:51 PM »

Why does this feel more worthy of concern than say Flu which picks off loads of old and people with pre-existing conditions year after year.

Is it as simple as 'we don't have a vaccine' so we worry more or does it transmit more readily, or are there more reasons why we should be more concerned than we are about flu (I mean zillions of people don't bother with flu jabs despite the evidence all around that it can be quite serious).

Even though it's only the very young, the very old and the people with underlying health conditions that are at risk, the death rate of this is almost certainly quite a bit worse than flu.  What the actual real death rate is at the moment we don't know because all the figures are highly manipulated.  You don't die immediately from it, it takes a certain amount of time so you have to measure deaths today vs infections from say 7 days ago? 10 days ago? 14 days ago?.  The longer it takes to kill you the worse the rate in reality is.  This is clearly also contagious, much more so than something like Ebola. 
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« Reply #11 on: February 24, 2020, 06:00:12 PM »

Why does this feel more worthy of concern than say Flu which picks off loads of old and people with pre-existing conditions year after year.

Is it as simple as 'we don't have a vaccine' so we worry more or does it transmit more readily, or are there more reasons why we should be more concerned than we are about flu (I mean zillions of people don't bother with flu jabs despite the evidence all around that it can be quite serious).

Hard to believe.
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« Reply #12 on: February 24, 2020, 06:16:50 PM »

Why does this feel more worthy of concern than say Flu which picks off loads of old and people with pre-existing conditions year after year.

Is it as simple as 'we don't have a vaccine' so we worry more or does it transmit more readily, or are there more reasons why we should be more concerned than we are about flu (I mean zillions of people don't bother with flu jabs despite the evidence all around that it can be quite serious).

Even though it's only the very young, the very old and the people with underlying health conditions that are at risk, the death rate of this is almost certainly quite a bit worse than flu.  What the actual real death rate is at the moment we don't know because all the figures are highly manipulated.  You don't die immediately from it, it takes a certain amount of time so you have to measure deaths today vs infections from say 7 days ago? 10 days ago? 14 days ago?.  The longer it takes to kill you the worse the rate in reality is.  This is clearly also contagious, much more so than something like Ebola. 

Of course, yes & thanks. Flu death rate stats are far far lower than this virus, that'll do it.
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« Reply #13 on: February 24, 2020, 07:02:36 PM »

Why does this feel more worthy of concern than say Flu which picks off loads of old and people with pre-existing conditions year after year.

Is it as simple as 'we don't have a vaccine' so we worry more or does it transmit more readily, or are there more reasons why we should be more concerned than we are about flu (I mean zillions of people don't bother with flu jabs despite the evidence all around that it can be quite serious).

Even though it's only the very young, the very old and the people with underlying health conditions that are at risk, the death rate of this is almost certainly quite a bit worse than flu.  What the actual real death rate is at the moment we don't know because all the figures are highly manipulated.  You don't die immediately from it, it takes a certain amount of time so you have to measure deaths today vs infections from say 7 days ago? 10 days ago? 14 days ago?.  The longer it takes to kill you the worse the rate in reality is.  This is clearly also contagious, much more so than something like Ebola. 

I thought this, but saw a respected source saying that the number of infections is also likely to be significantly understated as lots of young people won't think they had it or won't report as symptoms can be mild/zero.

And of course there will always be people who realise that they have it but will think keeping quiet is the best option... 
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SuperJez
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« Reply #14 on: February 24, 2020, 07:26:09 PM »

I thought this, but saw a respected source saying that the number of infections is also likely to be significantly understated as lots of young people won't think they had it or won't report as symptoms can be mild/zero.

And of course there will always be people who realise that they have it but will think keeping quiet is the best option...  

Yes, that is fair.  We don't know the true figures and can't be sure either way.   I read the figures in China were being heavily manipulated to keep reported deaths down by not marking them as Coronavirus deaths unless a lengthy and complex test had come back as positive before the person died.  I cannot even put that down to a "respected" source though.

It appears to be a fact that Italy are now attributing 7 deaths to Coronavirus https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-uk-china-italy-outbreak-death-toll/.  All were either elderly or had health problems.  What does that mean for the death rate?  How many people were infected in Italy a week ago or 10 days ago?  How long does it take to die from this thing? I have no idea of the real answers to those questions.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2020, 07:28:58 PM by SuperJez » Logged
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