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Author Topic: COVID19  (Read 354059 times)
kukushkin88
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« Reply #2775 on: June 19, 2020, 09:58:52 AM »

Douglas carswell, such a hero. I'd give it a few more months than him but eventually we'll wonder wtf we did

https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/1273740991720284160?s=19

He and Daniel Hannan really do live in a weird fantasy. Why would anyone want to depart from the view that a very late and very lite lockdown has  delivered a worst of all worlds outcome?

Confirmed, Hannan also a hero

When history looks back at a pro-Brexit figure, with extensive white supremacist links, I doubt the word hero will get much use. Nice to see the fantasists deriving some happiness out of it for the time being I guess.
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nirvana
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« Reply #2776 on: June 19, 2020, 10:14:25 AM »

'a pro Brexit figure'. Verily, history won't look on them kindly and their statues shall be tumbled.
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Doobs
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« Reply #2777 on: June 19, 2020, 10:30:24 AM »

History

https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/02/daniel-hannan-alarmism-doom-mongering-panic-and-the-coronavirus-we-are-nowhere-near-a-1919-style-catastrophe.html

65,000 deaths, around 5% of the population infected.   Just a bad cold. 
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Doobs
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« Reply #2778 on: June 19, 2020, 11:22:41 AM »

Suppsoe this is good news, though not surprising

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53106673

I'd still like to see the numbers going down further, as they are looking like they could be levelling off.  If they carry on as they are, then I am not sure how they open the schools in September with near full classes. 

If the numbers do keep going down, I'd be a bit more relaxed about full classes in schools in Spetember than I wold be about pubs opening in July. 
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nirvana
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« Reply #2779 on: June 19, 2020, 12:54:25 PM »


The number of dead is never going to reach a level where I will think that locking down in a mandatory style was a good thing. The die was cast, even before 11th March which seems to be the date most people like to refer to in terms of locking down then or locking down on the 23rd.

Plenty of issues with the way Government handled it, not least mandatory lockdown
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« Reply #2780 on: June 19, 2020, 01:26:48 PM »

If there is a Covid35 in 15 years time with a  different novel corona virus then things would be done differently, I doubt it will reach the point of needing a lockdown.

The population will start to wear masks / wash hands better / go to crowded bars less, weeks before a lockdown would be considered. The acts of doing this will slow the spread and delay the problem for months to allow medical technology to suppress it better than it has so far this year.

The risk is that there will be scares Covid26, Covid31 etc which fizzle out and make people complacent again. If it is 50 years till a damaging corona virus then maybe the lessons will have to be learned again the hard way.
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MintTrav
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« Reply #2781 on: June 19, 2020, 01:44:28 PM »

Has it for the second time in three months.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10221346964400403&set=a.3736400205377&type=3&theater
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Marky147
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« Reply #2782 on: June 19, 2020, 03:16:52 PM »


Would this lead us to a point where we have to just crack on with masks/distancing then?

Can't stay locked down forever, and unless you do it properly like NZ etc. it's never going to be fully effective anyway.

Unless the plan was for us to just slowly go for herd immunity, which may not be possible, if that case you posted is universal.
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arbboy
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« Reply #2783 on: June 19, 2020, 03:21:06 PM »

what would peoples under/over be for deaths in the uk by now then if there had been zero lockdown or measures?  Would it have got to 500k?
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« Reply #2784 on: June 19, 2020, 03:32:45 PM »


Would this lead us to a point where we have to just crack on with masks/distancing then?

Can't stay locked down forever, and unless you do it properly like NZ etc. it's never going to be fully effective anyway.

Unless the plan was for us to just slowly go for herd immunity, which may not be possible, if that case you posted is universal.

Think we should hold back on making conclusions based on something some random off facebook has posted. 

I think the plan here is to try and keep it lowish and under control rather than do a New Zealand.  Though it is still guesswork and I am not even convinced that many of the people in power know the long term plan.
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« Reply #2785 on: June 19, 2020, 03:35:17 PM »

what would peoples under/over be for deaths in the uk by now then if there had been zero lockdown or measures?  Would it have got to 500k?

If nobody did anything I'd go over 500,000.  But people would have done stuff independently even without official "lockdown", so would go under 500,000 if we allow people to do their own thing independently. 
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« Reply #2786 on: June 19, 2020, 03:50:06 PM »


Would this lead us to a point where we have to just crack on with masks/distancing then?

Can't stay locked down forever, and unless you do it properly like NZ etc. it's never going to be fully effective anyway.

Unless the plan was for us to just slowly go for herd immunity, which may not be possible, if that case you posted is universal.

Think we should hold back on making conclusions based on something some random off facebook has posted. 

I think the plan here is to try and keep it lowish and under control rather than do a New Zealand.  Though it is still guesswork and I am not even convinced that many of the people in power know the long term plan.

Of course. I was merely musing Smiley
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Marky147
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« Reply #2787 on: June 19, 2020, 03:51:20 PM »

If they don't open gyms next month, but open pubs I might have a tantrum.

Something I never thought I'd say 10 years ago Cheesy
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Jon MW
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« Reply #2788 on: June 19, 2020, 04:22:17 PM »


Would this lead us to a point where we have to just crack on with masks/distancing then?

Can't stay locked down forever, and unless you do it properly like NZ etc. it's never going to be fully effective anyway.

Unless the plan was for us to just slowly go for herd immunity, which may not be possible, if that case you posted is universal.

Think we should hold back on making conclusions based on something some random off facebook has posted. 

I think the plan here is to try and keep it lowish and under control rather than do a New Zealand.  Though it is still guesswork and I am not even convinced that many of the people in power know the long term plan.

On this point a more accurate statement would be, "Has [tested positive for] it for the second time in three months."

This has some good commentary on it despite the lightness of the source: https://people.com/health/dallas-woman-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-again/

The most relevant parts being:
"It's possible that people could shed remnants of the virus for some period of time. That doesn't mean anything is wrong with them or that they are contagious," Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville, told NBC 5.

Similarly, Dr. Ania Wajnberg, associate director of medicine at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York City, told the outlet that they are finding that second positives are not strands of live virus.

"What we're finding more and more is that the fragments of virus that are being picked up on these swabs weeks later are not able to replicate," she said. "They're not live virus."

The part about it not being live virus is most important.

The virus is SARS-CoV-2 - when it makes you ill you get the disease COVID19 - if you have the virus in your system you might test positive for it but you won't have the disease if the virus it's detecting isn't live.

This was what I thought of from the facebook post because she said she didn't have symptoms. Although that article also suggests her doctors think that  her case might be caused by the virus going dormant and then re-activating. That's a theoretical possiblity - it's why you can get shingles in later life if you have measles when you're younger (the measles virus hides until it re-activates later) - I don't see anywhere they've given any reason why they think this is the particular case here though.  But that also emphasises Doobs' point about you can only ascertain so much information from a facebook post.
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« Reply #2789 on: June 23, 2020, 05:53:22 PM »

Not watched the daily updates for weeks...

Jesus though the journalists have got to be the only people doing a worse job than the government!

Truly awful questions.
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