Breeders Cup Thread

[horseplayer]

Evening everyone

Only 10 days till the start of this once great event which is slowly veering into mediocrity

However, the first decent betting opportunity is available. With a mixture of the changing viewpoints about dirt racing in the states and the reduction in Lasix use and the understandable reluctance to take on Bob, "Mr. Drug Violation" Baffert on his own patch the entries for all dirt races are at record lows.

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/breeders-cup/breeders-cup-filly-and-mare-sprint/winner

The pre-entries were released earlier and this race only has 7. Maybe 1 or even 2 will drop out but even if they don't the firms still going 3 places are making an error here.

Pre-Entered Horses
Bella Sofia (Rudy Rodriguez)
Ce Ce (Michael McCarthy)
Edgeway (John Sadler)
Estilo Talentoso (Juan Arriagada)
Gamine (Bob Baffert)
Proud Emma (Peter Miller)
Truth Hurts (Chad Summers)

Truth Hurts and Proud Emma will be 50/1 + on the day possibly 100s.

If I had the ability I would be backing Ce Ce at 6/1 each way with the 3 places as it stands with the few firms left.

Will be sticking up any bets I have on here.

Good luck all.

[tikay]

Good stuff John, thanks.

[4KSuited]

Thanks for this horsey

PS How the hell does Baffert retain his license?

[horseplayer]

Cheers chaps

Good question that there was talk he would be banned from entering but that would have just led to trainer switches in name only (hardly unique to the states sadly)

A lot of the persistent violation breakers of the last decade have actually gone now certainly at the bigger tracks

[Marky147]

Good stuff, and good luck, horsey!

[horseplayer]

Looking like only 5 in the Filly and Mare sprint and that includes Proud Emma so essentially 4 a very nice spot.

One thing I hope I have learnt over the years is not forcing a bet the week in advance, most of the markets look about right now and it is more important to see any biases on Friday and act accordingly now.

The turf races are most interesting and competitive the shorter priced animals (like Space Blues) look about the right price but the Del Mar turf track is one of the trickiest to "learn" in America for a jockey and suits a horse that can quicken into the very short straight than a grinder. Space Blues isn't a grinder but maybe further back than ideal.

[Marky147]

Presume this starts tomorrow.

Good luck, horsey!

[horseplayer]

Yep, Friday and Saturday cheers Marky...


24 hours ago I said this

"One thing I hope I have learned over the years is not forcing a bet the week in advance, most of the markets look about right now and it is more important to see any biases on Friday and act accordingly now.
"

Ignore the above as here I am with 2 bets for the Friday card

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2021-11-05-del-mar/21:50/winner

This is possibly the hardest race across the meeting so why not have an opinion. The front two in the market are both Wes Ward speedballs and history says one won't change tactic for the other, throw in at least 5 other possible speed types and we might have a speed collapse. The problem is this track doesn't do many of those. One who should be midfield but no further back is DERRYNANE 20/1 min, who has a bit to find on the figures been working well by many reports and this quote bodes well

“She's got speed,” said Clement's assistant Christophe Lorieul. “I really like her race at Woodbine. It was on a similar kind of surface and racetrack with tight turns. There was plenty of speed in front of her and she came closing at the end. She ran a very good race that day. I don't know how much she beat, but she looked very good doing it.”

Derrynane and Joel Rosario will start from Post 11 in the 14-horse field.
“For a 2-year-old she is amazing,” Lorieul said. “Wherever you take her, she never leaves any feed and she always acts very mature. That's a plus.”

She basically races like a more experienced filly than she is has already experienced a rough race on the second start and although maybe lacking the class and probably the early speed looks a tad overpriced here.



https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2021-11-06-del-mar/00:30/winner

The second bet is the stronger of the two for me especially at the Hills standout 14/1 on PORTFOLIO COMPANY in the juvenile turf.

Feels a bit scary going against both of Applebys runners especially from plum draws but that is all in the price.

The selection was beaten in a head bob by the original favourite for this which in itself makes the 14s wrong (i think the sp will be around /8s) The draw in 10 is hardly ideal but he has the early pace to get a fair position at worst.

He has the highest speed figure in the race with a couple of the main speed figure providers in the states there isn't a lot to not like especially at double figures.

[horseplayer]

Nearly showtime

Quick race by race rundown of tonight plus some more bets I may have later price dependent.

9.50 Juvenile Turf Sprint

Already on Derrynane not much else to add if Run Curtis Run drifts to 60s+ on the machine nearer the race will have a small win only in that direction.

10.30 Juvenile Fillies

Have come round to JUJU'S MAP here as the week has gone on especially the biggest price of the 3 who can win this. Asmussen who trains the favourite has had an awful month which may or may not continue but is a small negative even not allowing for that Juju's has almost done as much as the fav and is proven over 2 turns. Hidden Connection has had 2 wins on the snaff and could be anything but has plenty to find on the numbers. I would have Juju closer to 7/4 2/1 here.  3/1 is a good bet.


11.10  Juvenile Fillies Turf

Betting like a handicap this and any of these winning would be no surprise. Haughty is probably the one with the biggest future of these but has enough to prove at sub 8/1. Cachet is the battle-hardened type who could thrive here she has the plum draw in 3 should have enough pace to be in pole position what I really like is Boughey has booked American jockey Luis Suaez who is a rare case of being a better turf jock than dirt in America, he is mega aggressive on the turf usually which is the only way Cachet can win this. I think she will drift a bit might even get 20s+ later. A small view.

11.50 Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Race lost a lot of its shine with the late withdrawal of Jack Christopher he had a big chance of getting the front with Corniche being in 13. However now even though some other connections should adjust and perhaps send a rag forward even from 13 Corniche will lead these. The 9/4 with Hills is a bit of a standout and is small value. At any price, American Sanctuary might not finish last as prices suggest with respect to Sophie Doyle who has done really well and earned a lot of money since moving Stateside a decade ago a jockey switch to Geroux is worth a few lbs. He could have beaten Double Thunder with a better trip and that one is 25s. Can he win probably not but might be one for the underneath of forecasts/tricasts e.t.c.


12.30 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

We have a nice position on Portfolio Company here who is still a small bet at current prices nothing else to add here just hope I stay awake for this one.


Good luck all

[tikay]

Worth noting that these will be covered live on ITV4.

[Marky147]

Good luck, punterers!

Will try and remember to fire into them.

[Karabiner]

Best of luck John and to all players including yours puntery truly 

[horseplayer]

Early signs on the turf say that inside is much the best but small sample

Doesn't bode well for Derrynane or Run Curtis Run but there we go

[horseplayer]

Derrynane runs a corker and was the moral winner but you don't get paid on that

Fantastic training performance by David Loughnane with Go Bears Go in 2nd

[alanc]

Certainly flying at the end. PP paid 4 places so all good.