hi/lo ?

[snoopy1239]

Who posted this darn hand?!?! 

[Div]

he's 11% better off on the turn and less likely to get callers?

He's 11% better off on the turn, and probably almost as likely to get a caller - that's a better situation.

I'm confused as to why we wouldn't want to get our money in as a 2:1 favourite?

Consider the guys who were willing to call $10 on that flop, but fold to a raise and re-raise. What could they be holding?

It's pretty common to find set over set battles in Omaha. The bet by UTG on the flop is screaming 'big drawing hand'.

If you are in MP and you've flopped middle set, you find yourself thinking 'I'm sure I'm ahead here, but what's behind me?' So you call, to see what happens.

If the guy in last position pots it, and UTG reraises, it's an insta-fold. If it's called all the way around, and the turn is an apparent good card, you are pretty sure you are ahead and are likely to bet or raise, straight into goonner who is sitting with top set.

As an example, lets look at a hand that might call that flop, but will fold to heavy action.

 

for middle set and a straight draw.

Stage	gooner	villain	other guy
Pre Flop	56	22	22
Flop	48	33	19
Turn (6 clubs)	39	58	3
Turn (6 diamonds)	64	21	15

So you give yourself the chance of winning 64% in a 3-way pot by calling the flop and pushing a good turn(but leaving yourself room to manouevre on a bad turn), against 68% in a 2-way pot by pushing the flop and taking all the decision making out of the hand.

You utilise your positional advantage to make better decisions on each round. It's not just about the numbers, it about making better decisions when you have the chance to do so.

Anyway I'm off for a cup of tea. Maybe we should all just have replied 'it depends' 

[JungleCat03]

The reason why you should get your chips in is that you are in a favourable situation. Against this guy's hand you are a very solid favourite.

Anyone who doesn't want to take a 70 30 edge in a cash game would have to explain that one to me.

Let's say this doesn't go to plan and you get called by someone with a wrap draw and a flush draw and a backdoor flush draw, say JKc 8Th

I assumed this would be a favourite? Turns out your backdoor lo gives you enough ev to keep you on top.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1607309
pokenum  -o8 kc jc th   - as qs qd   -- qh
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing
cards          scoop  HIwin  HIlos  HItie  LOwin  LOlos  LOtie     EV
        334    438    382      0      0      0      0  0.471
As         382    382    438      0    144      0      0  0.529.

So against the worst possible hand you can be up against, you have superior equity.


What about if you get two callers, one with a big wrap draw another with the nut flush draw, maybe with a pair, and also a backdoor low..

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1607319
pokenum  -o8 ks js td   - as qs qd   - ac   -- qh
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 666 enumerated boards containing
cards          scoop  HIwin  HIlos  HItie  LOwin  LOlos  LOtie     EV
        114    150    516      0      0      0      0  0.198
As         247    313    344      9      0      0    129  0.472
        132    194    463      9     60      0    129  0.330

About as bad shape as you can be in. Some of your equity robbed by the backdoor low, some by the fact that one of your pair up outs is gone but your equity is stilll 50%.

Now u are getting 3 way action as a 50% favourite, another very profitable cash scenario.

These are worst case scenarios. In both of them, you should be happy to get your chips in.

How about when you run into some good situations.

Say two guys with a wrap draw, one also has a flush and the nut flush draw.


http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1607334
pokenum  -o8 kc jc td   - as qs qd   - ac   - th jh jd kh  -- qh
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 528 enumerated boards containing
cards          scoop  HIwin  HIlos  HItie  LOwin  LOlos  LOtie     EV
          1      1    430     97      0      0      0  0.082
As         257    291    237      0    101      0      0  0.585
         75    117    411      0     86    101      0  0.230
          1     22    409     97      0      0      0  0.102

So here you are nearly a 60% favourite in a 4 way pot. Fantastic situation to be in.

There are lots of other scenarios where you will be a big favourite such as when you get called by lower sets, 3 flush draws, 3 wrap draws, plain old open ended straight draws and even hands like 2 pair someitmes. Throw in the folding equity gained from your aggression, and you can see how you jsut have to attack this flop.

Drive the betting now while you are DEFINITELY a favourite as opposed to playing it passively, worrying over a scare turn card, of which there are many and failing to maximise your profit. If you lose you lose. Reload, get your chips into the middle in good shape again. Do it 100 times, you'll be a big winner.

[londonpokergirl]

I'd only flat call because trips is not great against flushing or str8 and basically you are looking to pair the board

and also i've pushed with these hands on the flop and been shafted many times by people calling with every draw possible and hitting

My theory is that if you flat call, and hit a blank on the turn, as long as you can bet him off the pot then you could win it on the turn, because unlikely they'll call for 1 card,  but if you push on the flop they will certainly call for 2 cards all their money on the draws

[snoopy1239]

EEK!!! 

The Beagle mind just can't cope with so much information.

[Div]

EEK!!! 

The Beagle mind just can't cope with so much information.

Heh! I think there's more to it than just numbers. I was trying to use them to illustrate a point.

If poker was purely about 'I'm 51% to win this, so let's lump it all-in' then the online game probably would be overrun with bots, since it would be pure maths.

It's not a bad decision to play the flop aggressively on this hand (the numbers prove it), but I do think the alternative play minimises loss, and maximises gain which is surely better in the long run - using superior skill to manipulate the numbers to your advantage.

I'm well aware that in cash games you must be prepared to stick all your chips in knowing you are nowhere near certain to win, but are making a long term +EV decision, but just because you are PREPARED to do it, doesn't mean you HAVE to do it every time.

[ifm]

Firstly Bongo, nobody said they wouldn't get their chips in as a 2-1 favourite, if the OP had said "i had 1 caller with this hand, was it a good decision" then we would all agree.
I don't like relying on backdoor LO's and such, i prefer to stick my chips in with a strong made hand and a draw or a strong drawing hand.
Trips are not either, i still flat call..............

[jezza777]

wow a great thread guys - and I dont even play O hi/lo . Do you still only get 30 secs to act? If so I'm pretty sure I could never get my head around it!

[TightEnd]

its been one of the best PHA threads ever


and we all still think we are right!!! 

[Royal Flush]

its been one of the best PHA threads ever


and we all still think we are right!!! 

I know i am right actually tighty....

[Trivial]

Just like to add my weight to the 'ship it in' brigade. I'll take a caller looking for the nut flush any day versus my top set. If he happens to have wrap outs also then good luck to him. But given the amount of folk who have called the UTG bet, one can safely assume that most of the outs are counterfeitted amongst the collective holdings of the pack.

If they are all maniacs and all call your Pot bet (this is the only way you could consider yourself an underdog upon pushing) then so be it -- you've got a bunch of boat outs anyway.

[Alex Scott]

Just to add my two pence...

I think in practice I would push on the flop also. Almost no matter what combination of cards calls you, you will have enough equity in the pot to make a profit in the long run. For example, if you get called in two spots, you only need a 33% chance to win to break even on the hand, and as JungleCat has shown, your actual chance of winning is much higher than that. There's also the chance that everybody will fold (it really depends on the game), in which case you've achieved your goal of protecting a vulnerable hand.

However there is an argument for flat calling and seeing the turn, which Lyle Berman discusses in the Pot Limit Omaha section of Super System 2. Playing this way reduces your fluctuations, but also reduces your profit (unless you'll get the same amount of action on a blank turn card as you would on the flop - very unlikely).

I think the fact that there is an argument over which play is best shows just how close the two options are.