Whats your play on river?

[WellChief]

What's your play on the river here?  I'll post what happened and what I should have done and why later.



[Apr 3 02:28:38] : Seat 1 : yunadaddy has $312.25
[Apr 3 02:28:38] : Seat 2 : MisterEko has $897.50
[Apr 3 02:28:38] : Seat 3 : Yukon88 has $107.50
[Apr 3 02:28:38] : Seat 4 : tyler1 has $809.25
[Apr 3 02:28:38] : Seat 5 : kjbmaa2211 has $311
[Apr 3 02:28:38] : Seat 6 : sharpspoon has $1,176.88
[Apr 3 02:28:38] : yunadaddy is the dealer.
[Apr 3 02:28:38] : MisterEko posted small blind.
[Apr 3 02:28:39] : Yukon88 posted big blind.
[Apr 3 02:28:39] : Game [3547] started with 6 players.
[Apr 3 02:28:39] : Dealing Hole Cards.
[Apr 3 02:28:39] : Seat 2 : MisterEko has
[Apr 3 02:28:42] : tyler1 called $6
[Apr 3 02:28:43] : kjbmaa2211 folded.
[Apr 3 02:28:48] : sharpspoon called $6
[Apr 3 02:28:50] : yunadaddy called $6
[Apr 3 02:28:51] : MisterEko called $3
[Apr 3 02:28:56] : Yukon88 checked.
[Apr 3 02:28:56] : Dealing flop.
[Apr 3 02:28:56] : Board cards [ ]
[Apr 3 02:28:58] : MisterEko bet $12
[Apr 3 02:29:01] : Yukon88 folded.
[Apr 3 02:29:03] : tyler1 called $12
[Apr 3 02:29:03] : sharpspoon called $12
[Apr 3 02:29:06] : yunadaddy called $12
[Apr 3 02:29:07] : Dealing turn.
[Apr 3 02:29:07] : Board cards [ ]
[Apr 3 02:29:12] : MisterEko bet $20
[Apr 3 02:29:14] : tyler1 called $20
[Apr 3 02:29:16] : sharpspoon called $20
[Apr 3 02:29:18] : yunadaddy called $20
[Apr 3 02:29:19] : Dealing river.
[Apr 3 02:29:19] : Board cards [ ]
[Apr 3 02:29:24] : MisterEko bet $35
[Apr 3 02:29:26] : tyler1 called $35
[Apr 3 02:29:28] : sharpspoon called $35 and raised $80
[Apr 3 02:29:39] : yunadaddy called $115

[bundle]

Wow what a nightmare ...

[maldini32]

call for me....if anyone had a set im thinkin a re raise on the turn...only hand beatin u is nut flush...but ur gonna reply tellin me guy had in the hole and im a big fish! Call for me.

[WellChief]

For me calling is the worst option of the three, as I'm pretty sure I am beat.

Sharpspoon is a good solid player, Yuna is a bit of a calling station.  The ONLY hand Sharpspoon can have here in my opinion is the nut flush, as there's no way he would let people in on the turn that cheaply with all those draws on the board with a set.  I'm very confident that I'm beating Yuna.  When the actin comes to me there's $450 in the pot. Unfortunately I only called the bet, however knowing that Sharspoon has the nut flush and that I'm behind surely the best play is to RAISE.  Pushing all in, or raising $500 more would be an a very clever play IMO.  There's no way sharpspoon can call with the paired board and its betting $500 to win $500 (more as Yuna probably calls as well) so only needs to be successful 50% of the time to break even.  I believe the success rate would be at least 90%.

This is poker where you can win the pot while knowing your behind, just wish i'd thought of it at the time.

[totalise]

For me calling is the worst option of the three, as I'm pretty sure I am beat.

Sharpspoon is a good solid player, Yuna is a bit of a calling station.  The ONLY hand Sharpspoon can have here in my opinion is the nut flush, as there's no way he would let people in on the turn that cheaply with all those draws on the board with a set.  I'm very confident that I'm beating Yuna.  When the actin comes to me there's $450 in the pot. Unfortunately I only called the bet, however knowing that Sharspoon has the nut flush and that I'm behind surely the best play is to RAISE.  Pushing all in, or raising $500 more would be an a very clever play IMO.  There's no way sharpspoon can call with the paired board and its betting $500 to win $500 (more as Yuna probably calls as well) so only needs to be successful 50% of the time to break even.  I believe the success rate would be at least 90%.

This is poker where you can win the pot while knowing your behind, just wish i'd thought of it at the time.

This is true, but is your play consistent with the way you would play a set? $24 pre, $48 on flop.. so you would typically bet $20 into a pot that is $72 on the turn, laying people almost 5/1, when you had a set?  you talk about him protecting his hand if he had a set, i'm sure he would expect the same from you

Its not like you can squeeze him against yuna either, as there is no way yuna beats nut-flush.

If the board paired one of the flop cards, id like it a lot more as 2pr and a set both have him, but with it coming runner/runner, I think your success rate is going to be a lot lower then the 90% you think. Maybe its higher then 50%, maybe not.

[WellChief]

I was thinking that as I was in the blinds I could easily have Q 5, 9 5 or K 5, although you are right about what i'm laying them on the turn.  However its a dodgy board for those sets of two pair and I wouldn't want to be making the pot too big with all those flat calls on the flop.

Its surely a very tough call for sharpspoon after being re-re-raised in that situation.

[bobby1]

For me calling is the worst option of the three, as I'm pretty sure I am beat.

Sharpspoon is a good solid player, Yuna is a bit of a calling station.  The ONLY hand Sharpspoon can have here in my opinion is the nut flush, as there's no way he would let people in on the turn that cheaply with all those draws on the board with a set.  I'm very confident that I'm beating Yuna.  When the actin comes to me there's $450 in the pot. Unfortunately I only called the bet, however knowing that Sharspoon has the nut flush and that I'm behind surely the best play is to RAISE.  Pushing all in, or raising $500 more would be an a very clever play IMO.  There's no way sharpspoon can call with the paired board and its betting $500 to win $500 (more as Yuna probably calls as well) so only needs to be successful 50% of the time to break even.  I believe the success rate would be at least 90%.

This is poker where you can win the pot while knowing your behind, just wish i'd thought of it at the time.


Im not sure that would work Chief ,as you said, anyone holding a set bets differently on the turn.

[12barblues]

I came up with a different scenario to you, knowing nothing about the players involved, but only after a lot of head-scratching about the constant flat calling on a draw-laden board.  Here goes.....

No-one has a full house as the betting is just too passive (crosses fingers and prays).  Anyone who flopped a decent made hand surely sticks in a raise somewhere before the river.

Tyler has something like KJ or KT for a dodgy top pair plus  busted gutshot draw as he has just called all your progressively weaker bets (vs. pot size).  He calls the river because.....well..... that's what calling stations do.

Sharpspoon could have the nut flush, but then what on earth is Yuna calling his raise with??  Not a third flush, surely?  So with a wild leap of faith I put Sharpspoon on a busted straight draw, trying to push out Yuna or you who he thinks has the nut flush.

Yuna has the nut flush.

So, you fold because your beaten...........or call  because the pot odds are huge, you are an optimist,  and Tyler isn't going to re-raise behind you.......or raise to try to push out Yuna, if you are feeling really aggressive!

Can I go back to my $3 STT's now?  My brain hurts.

[totalise]

I was thinking that as I was in the blinds I could easily have Q 5, 9 5 or K 5, although you are right about what i'm laying them on the turn.  However its a dodgy board for those sets of two pair and I wouldn't want to be making the pot too big with all those flat calls on the flop.

Its surely a very tough call for sharpspoon after being re-re-raised in that situation.

its hard to sell 9/5 or Q/5 given flop action.. K5 more plausible, but its a longshot... and when a "safe" turn card comes, people expect sets to get busy in multi-way pots (and lets be honest, despite our protestations of randomisation, how often would we really play 2pr/set this timid?)

I agree its a tough spot to call with NFD, but if ur villain is a good player, the pieces of the jigsaw dont fit, and if in doubt getting 2/1, I think people call rather then fold. You are risking 500 to win 500, they are risking 500 to win 1000. Huge difference. You need to be rite 50% of the time, they need to be rite 33%

[WellChief]

Take your point totalise, I would hope though that in 30 seconds he would think straight away that i must have a full house to make that play and not have enough time to piece the jigsaw together and make the call.

[WellChief]

I just like situations like this, and feel that to progress as a player I need to be able to make more +EV raises when I can put a player on an exact hand and make him fold the best hand.

[totalise]

Take your point totalise, I would hope though that in 30 seconds he would think straight away that i must have a full house to make that play and not have enough time to piece the jigsaw together and make the call.

These kids that play 3/6 in general get into these kinda situations multiple times per day, so the analysis is almost an automatic process. I do love these plays though, they are the kind of moves I try and implement, but I always try and avoid it when people are getting 2/1.. because they (in my experience) look you up too much. If your raise was laying them a tinier price, like evens, it would be a lot more successful

"I just like situations like this, and feel that to progress as a player I need to be able to make more +EV raises when I can put a player on an exact hand and make him fold the best hand"

I certainly concur with this, the key is to make sure it is +EV ( I still think it probably was, but its not much, and it incurs a huge degree of variance which is probably un-necessary unless you are really well rolled to the tune of say 50 buyins)

[WellChief]

I don't mind the variance at all really, I'm trying to advance my play to a higher level and make sure I capatalise on as many +EV opportunities as possible.

I don't want my play to become automatic and in situations like this i need to stop and think, at the time I called within about 5 seconds without really stopping and thinking about it.  This topic was just an excuse for a bit of a rant to be honest!

[bobby1]

hey feel free Chief, it is interesting.

[totalise]

hey feel free Chief, it is interesting.

its hands like this that make hand-analysis fun.