Tips for Tikay

[exstream]

Brighton win to nil, 11/8.

21 clean sheets in 42 games.
Home to a team who are missing both their two strikers.
Beet home record in the league.

Worth a cheeky £20.

missed the price in the hour this was posted sorry

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/brighton-v-wigan/to-win-to-nil

Exchange

[TightEnd]

Brighton win to nil, 11/8.

21 clean sheets in 42 games.
Home to a team who are missing both their two strikers.
Beet home record in the league.

Worth a cheeky £20.

missed the price in the hour this was posted sorry

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/brighton-v-wigan/to-win-to-nil

like the thought process however there is a better way to play . By backing Wigan under 0.5 total goals at 21-20/evens we still win if it ends  0-0

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/brighton-v-wigan/total-away-goals

Recommend £50

i went half way between teh two recommended stakes


Under 0.5 Brighton v Wigan Total Away Goals
21/20
Total Stake: £35.00
Potential Returns: £71.75

[FUN4FRASER]

Brighton win to nil, 11/8.

21 clean sheets in 42 games.
Home to a team who are missing both their two strikers.
Beet home record in the league.

Worth a cheeky £20.

missed the price in the hour this was posted sorry

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/brighton-v-wigan/to-win-to-nil

like the thought process however there is a better way to play . By backing Wigan under 0.5 total goals at 21-20/evens we still win if it ends  0-0

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/brighton-v-wigan/total-away-goals

Recommend £50

i went half way between teh two recommended stakes


Under 0.5 Brighton v Wigan Total Away Goals
21/20
Total Stake: £35.00
Potential Returns: £71.75

Value Price gone  ....must be the £ millions of TFT money   

[TheDazzler]

What do we think of Marine Le Pen winning the French Presidency @ 7/2?
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/french-election/next-president
Just like Trump and Brexit, it just can't happen (!) but voter disillusionment with establishment politics, a high unemployment rate (particularly among the youth), terrorist attacks, immigration questions all play into her hands, surely?
Tighty?

[TightEnd]

KKR win again,chase down 168 to beat Delhi with a ball to spare

Notts win at Durham, 2 wins from 2 44 points....

[TightEnd]

What do we think of Marine Le Pen winning the French Presidency @ 7/2?
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/french-election/next-president
Just like Trump and Brexit, it just can't happen (!) but voter disillusionment with establishment politics, a high unemployment rate (particularly among the youth), terrorist attacks, immigration questions all play into her hands, surely?
Tighty?

i am sure your points are valid (certainly have been in 2015 and 2016),but not enough knowledge of the contest as a whole to put money on any outcome i am afraid

[bergeroo]

What do we think of Marine Le Pen winning the French Presidency @ 7/2?
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/french-election/next-president
Just like Trump and Brexit, it just can't happen (!) but voter disillusionment with establishment politics, a high unemployment rate (particularly among the youth), terrorist attacks, immigration questions all play into her hands, surely?
Tighty?

I'd say there is a good chance of her winning the first round due to the factors that you describe and the vote is split amongst the establishment candidates.

She is odds on.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/french-election/first-round-vote-winner

Then there is a head to head run off where the vast majority of the establishment voters will switch their vote to the last mainstream candidate (probably Macron) and and band together to stop Le Pen and she will lose the heads up like her father in 2002

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002

I have no idea how to put a price on it but 7/2 seems pretty short for what would be a shock political event. If anything, after Trump and Brexit I would say there would be likely an overreaction in the betting prices of shock political events due to recency bias - indeed I believe recall this was discussed before the Stoke by election on a thread here...

[TheDazzler]

What do we think of Marine Le Pen winning the French Presidency @ 7/2?
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/french-election/next-president
Just like Trump and Brexit, it just can't happen (!) but voter disillusionment with establishment politics, a high unemployment rate (particularly among the youth), terrorist attacks, immigration questions all play into her hands, surely?
Tighty?

I'd say there is a good chance of her winning the first round due to the factors that you describe and the vote is split amongst the establishment candidates.

She is odds on.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/french-election/first-round-vote-winner

Then there is a head to head run off where the vast majority of the establishment voters will switch their vote to the last mainstream candidate (probably Macron) and and band together to stop Le Pen and she will lose the heads up like her father in 2002

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002

I have no idea how to put a price on it but 7/2 seems pretty short for what would be a shock political event. If anything, after Trump and Brexit I would say there would be likely an overreaction in the betting prices of shock political events due to recency bias - indeed I believe recall this was discussed before the Stoke by election on a thread here...

Yes, I understand the system and I know the theory behind, "all the remainder will vote anti Le Pen" in the run off. But Trump won, at least partly, because Clinton was such a bad candidate. The same applies in France. The main 2 opponents have their own issues.
Macron has never held elected office, he doesn't really stand for anything. Fillon has the corruption stuff hanging over him.
 
Regarding Le Pen snr, he was never a runner in 2002, the landscape wasn't right. We were still in the economic boom and extremists never get in during the 'good times'. Also he was never astute enough politically. Marine presents the 'gentler' side of fascism

I had a French friend stay with me last weekend. She doesn't want Le Pen at all but she thinks it could be very, very close.

[bergeroo]

What do we think of Marine Le Pen winning the French Presidency @ 7/2?
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/french-election/next-president
Just like Trump and Brexit, it just can't happen (!) but voter disillusionment with establishment politics, a high unemployment rate (particularly among the youth), terrorist attacks, immigration questions all play into her hands, surely?
Tighty?

I'd say there is a good chance of her winning the first round due to the factors that you describe and the vote is split amongst the establishment candidates.

She is odds on.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/french-election/first-round-vote-winner

Then there is a head to head run off where the vast majority of the establishment voters will switch their vote to the last mainstream candidate (probably Macron) and and band together to stop Le Pen and she will lose the heads up like her father in 2002

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002

I have no idea how to put a price on it but 7/2 seems pretty short for what would be a shock political event. If anything, after Trump and Brexit I would say there would be likely an overreaction in the betting prices of shock political events due to recency bias - indeed I believe recall this was discussed before the Stoke by election on a thread here...

Yes, I understand the system and I know the theory behind, "all the remainder will vote anti Le Pen" in the run off. But Trump won, at least partly, because Clinton was such a bad candidate. The same applies in France. The main 2 opponents have their own issues.
Macron has never held elected office, he doesn't really stand for anything. Fillon has the corruption stuff hanging over him.
 
Regarding Le Pen snr, he was never a runner in 2002, the landscape wasn't right. We were still in the economic boom and extremists never get in during the 'good times'. Also he was never astute enough politically. Marine presents the 'gentler' side of fascism

I had a French friend stay with me last weekend. She doesn't want Le Pen at all but she thinks it could be very, very close.

Nate Silver posted just now about it. But it seems he is suspicious about the data

Click to see full-size image.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/853998602754158592

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/853999400535941120

[Doobs]

There's a Grand National tomorrow(Irish) and so I have to chuck a couple of darts at it.
 
I like to make my selections on the back of what I have seen, and what I know, and then, have a look at the strong trends for the race, to give me extra confidence.

The Irish national has some quite strong trends, and thankfully my darts have landed in the right trends horses to boot.

Horses that have run at Aintree last, dont do well.

Horses carrying less than 10.13 have won 16 of the last 17 races.

All of the last 17 winners were 10 or younger.

Nearly all recent winners have WINS over 3m+

They have run in the last two months.


I found it hard to believe Alpha Des Obeaux was carrying under 11 stone. He didnt do as well as I hoped at Cheltenham, but it was returning after breaking blood vessels over Christmas. At 25-1, I can give him one last chance for the only horse to get close to Thistlecrack in last years Stayers Hurdle.

Arbre de Vie was running a cracker in the 4miler when seemingly slipping on the flat 3 out. He is available at 20-1

Finally General Principle ticks all the trends boxes and looks on the recent improve. Bryan Cooper had a choice of 14 possible Giggy Mounts, he went for this one. He is 20-1.

£10 ew on each. More if you feel. GL

3m 5f HCap Chase
Outright Betting
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5   Alpha Des Obeaux   25/1   
Total stake   20.00
Estimated return   332.50
Full stake   20.00
Full estimated return   332.50


Arbre De Vie Fairyhouse 17:00 Winner
22/1 Each Way (4 Places at 1/4 Odds)
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £295.00

3m 5f HCap Chase
Outright Betting
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5   General Principle   20/1   
Total stake   £ 20.00
Estimated return   £ 270.00
Full stake   £ 20.00
Full estimated return   £ 270.00

Was General Principle 5th?  It sounded like the other two and Tiger Roll all got caught up in the same incident.  I think Arbre De Vie fell and that maybe caused the other two to be hampered.  I am not entirely sure.

[BigAdz]

Yes all round I think mate.

GP 5th and Arbre got brought down in the incident that stopped Alpha.

That said with so many Giggy horses it was hard to be totally sure!

All in all could have been better.

[TheDazzler]

What do we think of Marine Le Pen winning the French Presidency @ 7/2?
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/french-election/next-president
Just like Trump and Brexit, it just can't happen (!) but voter disillusionment with establishment politics, a high unemployment rate (particularly among the youth), terrorist attacks, immigration questions all play into her hands, surely?
Tighty?

I'd say there is a good chance of her winning the first round due to the factors that you describe and the vote is split amongst the establishment candidates.

She is odds on.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/european-politics/french-election/first-round-vote-winner

Then there is a head to head run off where the vast majority of the establishment voters will switch their vote to the last mainstream candidate (probably Macron) and and band together to stop Le Pen and she will lose the heads up like her father in 2002

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_2002

I have no idea how to put a price on it but 7/2 seems pretty short for what would be a shock political event. If anything, after Trump and Brexit I would say there would be likely an overreaction in the betting prices of shock political events due to recency bias - indeed I believe recall this was discussed before the Stoke by election on a thread here...

Yes, I understand the system and I know the theory behind, "all the remainder will vote anti Le Pen" in the run off. But Trump won, at least partly, because Clinton was such a bad candidate. The same applies in France. The main 2 opponents have their own issues.
Macron has never held elected office, he doesn't really stand for anything. Fillon has the corruption stuff hanging over him.
 
Regarding Le Pen snr, he was never a runner in 2002, the landscape wasn't right. We were still in the economic boom and extremists never get in during the 'good times'. Also he was never astute enough politically. Marine presents the 'gentler' side of fascism

I had a French friend stay with me last weekend. She doesn't want Le Pen at all but she thinks it could be very, very close.

Nate Silver posted just now about it. But it seems he is suspicious about the data

Click to see full-size image.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/853998602754158592

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/853999400535941120

 
The thing about Le Pen's numbers are that they are likely under counted imo. The 'shy' voter being polled. Who wants to admit to voting for a fascist? They'll do it but they won't admit it!

[Doobs]

Yes all round I think mate.

GP 5th and Arbre got brought down in the incident that stopped Alpha.

That said with so many Giggy horses it was hard to be totally sure!

All in all could have been better.

Will take that after the carnage earlier though.

[Karabiner]

I remember Bobby1 - remember him? - flagging up Luca Brecel as a snooker player to watch a few years ago.

If he played better position he could be a world-beater.

[tikay]

I remember Bobby1 - remember him? - flagging up Luca Brecel as a snooker player to watch a few years ago.

If he played better position he could be a world-beater.

Phil usually goes to a few sessions of the World Snooker, and I've been trying to spot him in the audience, but not seen him yet.