A powerhouse match-up for Superbowl 49, featuring the Seattle Seahawks against the New England Patriots.
Recommendations (£5-20 each)
Under 24 1st half points @10/11 Bet365
Under 47.5points @ 10/11 BetVictor
First touchdown scorer: LeGarrette Blount 12-1 BetVictor/Coral.
Superbowl MVP: LeGarrette Blount 25-1 William Hill.
Superbowl MVP (Defensive player fliers) Kam Chancellor 40-1, Jamie Collins 150-1
First Scoring Play: Seahawks field goal 4-1 BetVictor/Ladbrokes/Coral
national anthem length over 121.5 11/10 PP if we can get on
The outright
Immediately after the second conference game ended, with a decisive New England win, the Seahawks opened 3 point favourites. Within hours the game was a “pick-em” and the line has settled with New England very slight favourites.
Since they drafted Russell Wilson, the Seahawks are 10-1 ATS as underdogs. I am a bit wary of going against Belichick's fantastic game planning and earlier in the week wanted the Patriots but if the Seahawks go off as a dog, i'd be looking the other way i think particularly with the public having pounded the Patriots. think the late sharps will come for Seattle
It is a tantalising match-up for what will almost certainly be a very close game. Seattle won an amazing NFC Conference game, are the first Superbowl winner to make the next season’s game for ten years and feature the league’s top rushing attack and leading defense.
New England are in their sixth Superbowl (from eight conference games) in 13 years under the Belichick/Brady combination, looking for a fourth superbowl win in that time having won their division 13 years on the spin. That is unprecedented in a league with free agency meaning teams are constantly broken up, a college draft that sends the best young players in any given year to the worst NFL teams the year before and a league ethos that promotes parity.
What are the keys to watch for?
Seattle’s best chance is their running game, which led the league this season and features Marshawn Lynch who is the best running back in the league at gaining yards after contact.
The importance of Lynch is because Seattle’s passing game is comparatively poor. It was shut down for 55 minutes by Green Bay playing “man to man” coverage and the Patriots have the best man coverage in football. The Seahawks’ passing attack has to beat the best cornerback in the league Darrelle Revis, who will shadow Doug Baldwin, eliminating Russell Wilson’s top target.
Most likely, Wilson will have to look away from Baldwin. The Patriots will use two safeties to help coverage—a tactic the Patriots use often and will certainly employ against the mobile Wilson— and not many will expect Jermaine Kearse consistently separating from Brandon Browner, or Ricardo Lockette shaking free from Kyle Arrington and a safety?
Because receivers will have such trouble getting open, Russell Wilson’s ability to improvise is key. This season 17% of his rushing attempts and 23% of his rushing yards came in the fourth quarter (or overtime) when it was an eight-point game or closer. In crunch time, Wilson becomes a more aggressive and more dangerous runner.
On the other side of the ball the Patriots are at their best when their underneath, short-area passing game is clicking with Brady connecting with Julian Edelman, or when Rob Gronkowski is working the middle of the field. If either of these two gets rolling, the Patriots will be able to move the ball and score on a Seahawks defense that has allowed less than 10 points per contest during their current eight-game winning streak.
If the suffocating Seattle defense can take away these patterns and force Brady to throw deep Seattle will be in much better shape.
Another key battle is taking away the Patriots’ power running game. It racked up 177 yards against an undersized Colts front seven. The Seahawks don’t have the biggest Defensive line either. If LeGarrette Blount has a big night the Patriots will be tough to stop.
Points over/unders
The books opened the Super Bowl total at 49, and public money was quick to pound the over. Within an hour of opening, 62% of bettors were taking the over yet the total actually slipped to 48.5. This reverse line movement was a good and reliable indicator that sharp money likes the under in Super Bowl XLIX. The points line has settled at 47-48
Betting the under during the postseason has been a historically profitable strategy and this match up does suggest that it might be again. Two strong defenses, one limited offense and the other more explosive offense, New England, will have their best chance to beat Seattle’s defense not with big plays but with long drives fuelled by the rushing attack. The Patriots, with their six-man O-lines, are equipped to play that way.
Turnovers are vital in superbowls, both teams create far more than they give away (both 75-80 conceded, 125-130 won in the last three years) and i think this will lead to some conservative play-calling in the first half, and the first half under at 24 is an attractive bet
Prop bets
The Superbowl is a great event for those looking for both player props and quirky bets where you will be offered bets on anything from the length of the national anthem to the colour of the Gatorade that will be thrown on the winning coach
Prop betting in a Bill Belichick game is normally to be avoided. He is so innovative, with game plans full of unexpected wrinkles, but it’s the superbow!
Here is a selection I alighted on, from the perspective of someone who will be backing Unders and with the key trends identified above for likely game-flow
First touchdown scorer: LeGarrette Blount 12-1 BetVictor. This compares to Lynch priced up at 7-1. The Patriots power runner, will be employed on goal-line plays with a game plan that should feature long drives against the Seattle defense that takes most vertical passing attacks away
First Scoring Play: Seahawks field goal 4-1 BetVictor. The Patriots routinely defer possession on winning the toss. Seattle are likely to have the ball first (its no certainty they defer if they win the toss) and a field goal is more likely than a touchdown on their first possession without an explosive offense
Superbowl MVP: LeGarrette Blount 25-1 William Hill. There are three overwhelming favourites for this award. Both quarterbacks and Marshawn Lynch head the market, reasonably enough. We will be on unders though, and might expect a more defensive battle than one which features both quarterbacks throwing multiple touchdowns. Blount is 25-1, Lynch 11-2 and both will be the focus of his team’s offense.
alternatives if the seahawks stop Blount are Edelman 28-1 and Vereen 100-1
the basic problem any receiver, tight end or receiving running back have in winning the mvp is that the quarterback is part of the play. in 48 superbowls, qb's have won 27, and 11 of the last 20.
this could be a real defensive arm wrestle though and i like kam chancellor in a high profile seattle secondary (to stop gronkowski) at 40-1 (sherman and earl thomas are banged up, otherwise they might feature here too ) and jamie collins (who will need a huge game against marshawn lynch) at 150-1 as defensive fliers, trying to find some value against brady and wilson who are 4/9 dutched
national anthem length
idina menzel has some form
in 2014 she sang at the mlb all star game and her national anthem was 1.59, a plain vanilla version
in front of 110 million viewers, won't she go a bit diva and elongate a note or two? we only need to find three seconds for overs (121-123 seconds) to land
that said in jan 2008 she did a national anthem at an nfl game in well under 2 minutes, drowned out by a fly past
tomorrow's pre-game has a fly past too
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