Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

What a load of bollocks those request-a-bets are Peter.

the six timer taking best prices pays over 8-1 (putting Ric over Ver in at 1/2)

just a way of attracting mug money at poor prices/huge margins

fun or not, save your money

--

as to the rest, skybet and pp and bet365 are no go i am afriad

Agreed, but it adds a little excitement. Plus, most sites don't let you do F1 multiples sadly.

I don't usually do the combination bets actually, just mixing things up a little today - had to declare it otherwise people many be confused when I've made a bigger profit or loss than expected.

its not about sites accepting multiples, you are taking a price that is way below the true odds.

Yep, can't argue with logic. Oh well, this is a very rare occurrence for me, let's see what happens. I'm in no way trying to defend it, I knew it was a bad bet.

Peter, Rosberg is 5/1 to be first lap leader thats bigger price than Vettel any reasons not to bet that?

Umm, didn't see that. Don't understand it. Worth a bet, yes.

Wiiii winner winner!

No idea why he was bigger price than Vettel.

Good spot Sir, good spot.

[Killerkilsby]

What a load of bollocks those request-a-bets are Peter.

the six timer taking best prices pays over 8-1 (putting Ric over Ver in at 1/2)

just a way of attracting mug money at poor prices/huge margins

fun or not, save your money

--

as to the rest, skybet and pp and bet365 are no go i am afriad

Agreed, but it adds a little excitement. Plus, most sites don't let you do F1 multiples sadly.

I don't usually do the combination bets actually, just mixing things up a little today - had to declare it otherwise people many be confused when I've made a bigger profit or loss than expected.

its not about sites accepting multiples, you are taking a price that is way below the true odds.

Yep, can't argue with logic. Oh well, this is a very rare occurrence for me, let's see what happens. I'm in no way trying to defend it, I knew it was a bad bet.

Peter, Rosberg is 5/1 to be first lap leader thats bigger price than Vettel any reasons not to bet that?

Umm, didn't see that. Don't understand it. Worth a bet, yes.

Wiiii winner winner!

No idea why he was bigger price than Vettel.

Good spot Sir, good spot.

And a thanks to Peter for backing it in a timely matter allowing me to go Big.

[TightEnd]

I'd like to recommend a bet in today's Aviva Premiership game between Wasps and Exeter Chiefs.

Wasps have recruited heavily over the summer and have bought in some big names - Kurtley Beale, Willie Le Roux, Kyle Eastmond, Alapati Leiua, Danny Cipriani - but injuries mean that only Cipriani makes the match day squad. In spite of this they still have a decent starting XV with emerging talent like Mullan, Hughes and Elliot Daly and with a fervent home crowd, I expect them to be pumped up and start the game strongly.

Exeter took the opposite approach to recruitment over the summer, preferring to stand pat with a squad that saw them reach the premiership final last season. The one addition they made was an excellent one in the form of Ollie Devoto and he should form an excellent midfield partnership with with highly rated Henry Slade.

Where I think the game will be won and lost is on the replacement bench and Exeter have by far the stronger of the subs. In Dave Dennis, Greg Holmes and Geoff Parling they have three international class forwards waiting to add their power and experience to the pack and Gareth Steenson is one of the most experienced fly halfs in the league and will have no problems steering his team to victory. Wasps have a couple of weapons themselves in Marty Moore and Joe Simpson but will be weakened when they have to introduce their subs.

All this leads me to believe that the bet today is for Wasps to lead at half time and Exeter to overtake them in the second stanza and seal the victory. We can get 9/1 on that eventuality coming to fruition with Mr Hill.

Recommend: £20 on Wasps/Exeter (/FT) with WilliamHill @ 9/1

Wasps/Exeter Wasps v Exeter Half Time/Full Time
9/1
Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Returns: £200.00

[Peter-27]

What a load of bollocks those request-a-bets are Peter.

the six timer taking best prices pays over 8-1 (putting Ric over Ver in at 1/2)

just a way of attracting mug money at poor prices/huge margins

fun or not, save your money

--

as to the rest, skybet and pp and bet365 are no go i am afriad

Agreed, but it adds a little excitement. Plus, most sites don't let you do F1 multiples sadly.

I don't usually do the combination bets actually, just mixing things up a little today - had to declare it otherwise people many be confused when I've made a bigger profit or loss than expected.

its not about sites accepting multiples, you are taking a price that is way below the true odds.

Yep, can't argue with logic. Oh well, this is a very rare occurrence for me, let's see what happens. I'm in no way trying to defend it, I knew it was a bad bet.

Peter, Rosberg is 5/1 to be first lap leader thats bigger price than Vettel any reasons not to bet that?

Umm, didn't see that. Don't understand it. Worth a bet, yes.

Wiiii winner winner!

No idea why he was bigger price than Vettel.

Good spot Sir, good spot.

And a thanks to Peter for backing it in a timely matter allowing me to go Big.

No problem

As Tikay said, very good spot!

[Tal]

Time for another decent price NFL bet.

I know Tighty tipped one of the favourites for this market already elsewhere but I fancy someone further down.

The rushing yards market is a very interesting one this year. Over the last few years, the running back position has become less important, with it becoming more of a passing league. There aren't many great players in the position currently and generational RB Adrian Peterson is not much longer for the top of the game.

Tighty has - rightly - waxed lyrically about the Los Angeles Rams man, Todd Gurley. He flashed hot and cold a bit in his rookie year but it is reasonable to expect him to get more consistent in his second term.

One factor for some of the top guys in the market has been injuries to those around them: Peterson has lost his quarterback in Minnesota and so has Zeke Elliott in Dallas. That inevitably means the new QB will be calling more run plays, as the desire to protect the ball and play safe will be more relevant.

There are negatives. One is that a lot of guys are in poor or average teams. Poor teams are more often behind so they need to throw the ball to win. Good teams want to run the clock down when ahead in the 4th quarter, so use the running back to do that. This could be a problem for Gurley, Elliott, LeSean McCoy and Doug Martin if their teams start to struggle early.

There are also injury concerns for some of the guys at the top. Number Fire explains:

Adrian Peterson has suffered a dislocated shoulder, two high ankle sprains, a fractured collarbone, a sprained LCL, a torn ACL, a right mid-foot sprain, and a sports hernia. He has also handled 3,129 carries between college and the NFL.

In college, Todd Gurley missed three games with a sprained left ankle in 2013, and tore his left ACL in 2014.

Le'Veon Bell has a concussion, lisfranc foot sprain, hyper-extended left knee, and torn MCL and PCL in his right knee on his injury report.

Devonta Freeman has the least expansive injury history of the bunch but still dealt with a pulled hamstring in training camp last year, as well as a concussion during the season that caused him to miss one game and part of another.

Tampa Bay will be better this year, so Doug Martin should enjoy a decent season. He had a near injury free season last year but had persistent knee and ankle problems in 2014. But it isn't entirely beyond the realms of possibility last year's performance was aligned with what happened at the end of it, as he signed a huge new contract. The NFL does rather throw these situations up. They'll also throw it more to an improved Mike Evans.

Step forward, David Johnson. He's a freakish athlete with superb speed, strength, mobility and hands. Number Fire again:

Johnson owes a lot of his success to his freakish athleticism. He was top four at the combine among running backs in 40-yard dash, bench press, vertical jump, 3-cone drill, and broad jump. His 4.50 40-yard dash is faster than that of stud receivers  A.J. Green, DeAndre Hopkins, Dez Bryant, and Allen Robinson, and Johnson appears even faster on the field. His 25 bench reps are more than Rob Gronkowski, Jadeveon Clowney, or Cardinals stud defensive lineman Calais Campbell could muster.

What’s even more impressive about Johnson’s raw athleticism is the fact that he is a 6’1”, 225-pound monster. People may not realize it because he looks like a blur out there, but Johnson is actually bigger than Adrian Peterson (6’1”, 217), Le'Veon Bell (6’1”, 220), and Marshawn Lynch (5’11”, 215). He know how to put his size to good use too, often displaying his physical, punishing running style.

He is in an offense that is designed to create space and force teams not to protect against one thing over another. On the metrics, he was supremely better than his rivals in this market (1st for Number Fire and 4th for Football Outsiders, but none of the others will challenge this year)

One concern is he is one of a few running backs in Arizona and might not get all the work he needs. Although that is true, the head coach previously tried to give 25-30 touches a game to Andre Ellington, only for injury to set him back. If Johnson gets the bell cow workload - and if he starts well, why wouldn't he? - we are looking at a big season.

Extrapolate what he did last year on a reduced season (he didn't start as the number 1) and he would have rushed for 1,975 yards. That's quiz question performance levels.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/regular-season/most-rushing-yards

Johnson is 20/1. By way of comparison, LeVeon Bell is 22/1 and misses the first 3 games of the season.

1/4 first 3 with BetFwed seems very generous. I'd happily take 18/1 with BMU if we can't get that.



Recommend £30 each way on David Johnson to get the most rushing yards at 20/1 with BedFwed.

Or £25ew if BMU.

[TightEnd]

He's an all-round back, a fair amount of his total yards is gonig to be from receiving not rushing per se?

he's not a run it all three downs workhorse/bellcow that AP and some of the others are is he? this is a volume market.

viz

in his rookie season 581 yards rushing on 125 attempts, 36 receptions and 457 receiving yards so combined 1038

by comparison gurley had 1106 rushing yards alone on nearly double the number of carries

forecast for this year for johnson (per nfl.com) is 1140 rushing and 586 receving so 1726 yards but only 6th in rushing yards in isolation. of course a couple of the front five can easily get injured. so can johnson.

for whoever stays fit, 1500+ rushing is needed to win it

so brilliant for fantasy leagues (especially PPR) but he's 20-1 for a reason in this market isn't he?

[TightEnd]

Woakes has taken the first Pakistan wicket

with Rashid and Pulkett rested we are watching Mark Wood who needs to take 4 in his 10 overs for our bet not to win

[Tal]

He's an all-round back, a fair amount of his total yards is gonig to be from receiving not rushing per se?

he's not a run it all three downs workhorse/bellcow that AP and some of the others are is he? this is a volume market.

viz

in his rookie season 581 yards rushing on 125 attempts, 36 receptions and 457 receiving yards so combined 1038

by comparison gurley had 1106 rushing yards alone on nearly double the number of carries

forecast for this year for johnson (per nfl.com) is 1140 rushing and 586 receving so 1726 yards but only 6th in rushing yards in isolation. of course a couple of the front five can easily get injured. so can johnson.

for whoever stays fit, 1500+ rushing is needed to win it

so brilliant for fantasy leagues (especially PPR) but he's 20-1 for a reason in this market isn't he?

All valid arguments of course. I'm certainly not saying he should be 5/1 favourite or anything like that, but how can he be effectively the same price as Bell (a similar player with 3 fewer games)?

Johnson has a lot in his favour. I look at the top 6 and can make a case against their price. If there's a guy from down in the market who's going to make the leap, Johnson is progressive (which is perhaps part of the price) and the analytics boys seem to think he's special.

Dual threat for sure, but this could be a breakout year on the ground.

No problem if we don't fancy it.

[Peter-27]

Not a hugely exciting race, but a good one for the championship battle/s.

I personally made a profit of £71 and made up for the disaster of Belgium Hope you guys came out on top too.

[TightEnd]

He's an all-round back, a fair amount of his total yards is gonig to be from receiving not rushing per se?

he's not a run it all three downs workhorse/bellcow that AP and some of the others are is he? this is a volume market.

viz

in his rookie season 581 yards rushing on 125 attempts, 36 receptions and 457 receiving yards so combined 1038

by comparison gurley had 1106 rushing yards alone on nearly double the number of carries

forecast for this year for johnson (per nfl.com) is 1140 rushing and 586 receving so 1726 yards but only 6th in rushing yards in isolation. of course a couple of the front five can easily get injured. so can johnson.

for whoever stays fit, 1500+ rushing is needed to win it

so brilliant for fantasy leagues (especially PPR) but he's 20-1 for a reason in this market isn't he?

All valid arguments of course. I'm certainly not saying he should be 5/1 favourite or anything like that, but how can he be effectively the same price as Bell (a similar player with 3 fewer games)?

Johnson has a lot in his favour. I look at the top 6 and can make a case against their price. If there's a guy from down in the market who's going to make the leap, Johnson is progressive (which is perhaps part of the price) and the analytics boys seem to think he's special.

Dual threat for sure, but this could be a breakout year on the ground.

No problem if we don't fancy it.

He's shorter than Bell, most places

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl-specials/regular-season/most-rushing-yards

should be too. but on forecasts Bell in 13 games is expected to rush for 1050 or Johnson 1100+ or so. not much in it. Johnson around 1800 all purpose yards though, but thats nto what we are backing

its an interesting market, you can knock all the front 5 (injury prone, bad teams etc)

happy to back Johnson for you but personally don't think the price is massively out of line

[Cavey007]

Gotta agree with that I'm afraid. I think Johnson will get a fair but of his yardage in receptions. Although saying that. I think Bell will be used a lot as a no. 2 or 3 reciever as well. So I wouldn't be going anywhere near him at that price.

I'd looked at Gore. Anderson and Freeman at bigger prices. Gore is the only real option there. Behind a theoretically improved line. Anderson looks a nice option with essentially a rookie Qb and a team that will want to keep the ball. He should get a lot of play (although booker is apparently a better back and waiting) and Freeman for me is a bit of a risk because of the receiving yards and his coach saying they'll lower his workload (despite him saying he thinks he'll have a better year) 66/1 25/1 and 33/1 i think they were priced at.

[Chompy]

David Johnson @ 66-1 to be offensive player of the year? Seems to compare favourably to 20-1 Peterson? Or does this just go to a QB?

[TightEnd]

David Johnson @ 66-1 to be offensive player of the year? Seems to compare favourably to 20-1 Peterson? Or does this just go to a QB?

6 of the last 8 have been QBs, as you would expect

certainly possible an RB can win it. (demarco, ap, chris johnson, tomlinson all won it in their marquee years. antonio brown at wr didn't in his for example, nor julio jones and never gronk too)

far prefer johnson at 66 than AP at 20 for value given johnson could well get 1800 all purpose yards, he has to be in with a shout then

[exstream]

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/england/to-start-for-england-v-slovokia

figured stones and smalling odds would be other way round, well, stones favourite anyway
11/10 and 10/11

reckon 8/11 on shaw is good

Stones starts, don't know why smalling was fave, has he even played this season
Meh shaw

[Tal]

Sorry for the delay. Was watching Strictly. All in the name of research for Fred, of course... Any Daisy Lowe (dark horse starting from behind but likely to grow into the show with one of the best C&D Pro dancers and has excellent back movement) fans out there?

Happy to duck the bet, then. Thanks for the replies. Good to discuss these things. System works.

Let's do Chompy's bet instead, win that and not look back.