Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Should we be pressing on the Vikings for the division  now at 9/2?

Just signed Sam Bradford to play QB.

Did we make a decision on this, or did we decide to leave it?

[TightEnd]

Okay, pre-race bets:

Points Finish - Carlos Sainz @ 6/1 with many. A number of simulations suggests the Spanish driver is on for a point tomorrow. Suggest £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/points-finish

Fastest Lap - Lewis Hamilton @ EVS with StanShames or Lads. Given the margin that Lewis had on the field today, this seems more likely to happen than a coinflip to me. £20.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/fastest-lap

Grid Position Of Lap One Leader - Third @ 17/4 with BeeWin. Would be no surprise to see Vettel beat the Mercedes off the line and lead on the opening lap, 17/4 is far too high. £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/grid-position-of-lap-1-leaderhttp://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/grid-position-of-lap-1-leader

You may have noticed that I suggested considerably less bets than normal this weekend. The reason for this is because the discrepancies between the analysis on Friday, and the results on Saturday, were fairly significant. The track changed considerably overnight, and everyone is struggling to understand exactly why and how. I'm not feeling confident at all this weekend .. but let's see how we go.

Meanwhile, on the spreads, buying at three for S.Perez/N.Hulkenberg looks a good spot to me.

can only do one of these

Carlos Sainz Italian Grand Prix Points Finish
6/1
Total Stake: £10.00
Potential Returns: £70.00

[TightEnd]

with one match to go after restgate

Rashid 8
Woakes 8
Plunkett 5
Wood 5
Ali 3

so we have a shot still, at Cardiff on Sunday

would be back in the team for me, but its a dead rubber so who knows. rashid will play

we might have caught a break

Rashid rested for the last game, Woakes plays

[Tal]

Chess update:

28 of the 29 highest rated teams won their matches in Round 2. Relatively drama-less affair.

China won, Wei Yi conceding a draw on board 4 and the others winning. 



They play Brazil next, who are ranked 33rd. The games will be getting tougher from here on in.

Surprise of the round, arguably, was England's Luke McShane losing to the Indonesian board 3. Luke is in the top 100 in the world. His opponent is no slouch, but 350 rating points lower is a huge gulf in class.



And having been rested for round one, this fellow played on top board for Norway:



No prizes for guessing his result.

[tikay]

^^^

What?

Will we have to beat him?

[Tal]

^^^

What?

Will we have to beat him?

This is the beauty of the format: Norway aren't strong enough over the four players to compete for honours. However, Carlsen could end up winning every one of his individual games.

[Peter-27]

Been scouring the markets, got a couple more suggestions:

Race Winner - Sebastian Vettel @ 22/1 with the exchange. Unlikely to happen, and the price reflects this of course. However, is Vettel ever 22/1 to win on a track like this when he's got the pace for a podium as a minimum? I think this is overpriced. £10.

http://www.oddschecker.com/motorsport/formula-one/italian-grand-prix/winner

Group B/Group 2 (RIC/BOT/VER/MAS) - Valtteri Bottas @ 7/4 with SkaiBet/366. This should be quite a close group, but with Valtteri starting higher than the other three, I believe 7/4 to represent value. £15.

Group C (PER/HUL/GUT/GRO) - Sergio Perez @ 5/4 with SkaiBet. I don't see why this is over EVS. £20. 11/10 with 366 is okay too.

Group E (MAG/PAL/ERI/NAS) - Kevin Magnussen @ 12/5 with SkaiBet. A very good price on the fundamentally quickest driver of the group. £15.

Group bets links:
https://www.skybet.com/formula-1/italian-gp/betType/group-betting
http://www.bet365.com/home/FlashGen4/WebConsoleApp.asp?rn=18785518959&stf=1

There are two other bets I've done, but I'm not going to formally suggest them as they're not really value spots - just a bit of fun really. Plus I can see them coming off.

- HAM Win/VET Podium/BOT&MAS Points/>0 SC, RIC to beat VER @ 5/1 (https://www.skybet.com/formula-1/requestabet/betType/request_-_a_-_bet)

- Race Positions after lap 1 = 1st Hamilton, 2nd Rosberg, 3rd Vettel @ 4/1 (http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&category=SPORTS&disp_cat_id=&ev_class_id=8&ev_type_id=27878&ev_oc_grp_ids=2669459&bir_index=&bs_place=1&login_bet_place=1&bet_uid=610a160137ead757cbfe040d12a6&freebet_leg_or_type=&freebet_token_id=&matchedbet_leg_or_type=&matchedbet_token_id=&matchedbet_stake=&use_gp=true)

[TightEnd]

What a load of bollocks those request-a-bets are Peter.

the six timer taking best prices pays over 8-1 (putting Ric over Ver in at 1/2)

just a way of attracting mug money at poor prices/huge margins

fun or not, save your money

--

as to the rest, skybet and pp and bet365 are no go i am afriad

[Peter-27]

What a load of bollocks those request-a-bets are Peter.

the six timer taking best prices pays over 8-1 (putting Ric over Ver in at 1/2)

just a way of attracting mug money at poor prices/huge margins

fun or not, save your money

--

as to the rest, skybet and pp and bet365 are no go i am afriad

Agreed, but it adds a little excitement. Plus, most sites don't let you do F1 multiples sadly.

I don't usually do the combination bets actually, just mixing things up a little today - had to declare it otherwise people many be confused when I've made a bigger profit or loss than expected.

[TightEnd]

What a load of bollocks those request-a-bets are Peter.

the six timer taking best prices pays over 8-1 (putting Ric over Ver in at 1/2)

just a way of attracting mug money at poor prices/huge margins

fun or not, save your money

--

as to the rest, skybet and pp and bet365 are no go i am afriad

Agreed, but it adds a little excitement. Plus, most sites don't let you do F1 multiples sadly.

I don't usually do the combination bets actually, just mixing things up a little today - had to declare it otherwise people many be confused when I've made a bigger profit or loss than expected.

its not about sites accepting multiples, you are taking a price that is way below the true odds.

[tikay]

What a load of bollocks those request-a-bets are Peter.

the six timer taking best prices pays over 8-1 (putting Ric over Ver in at 1/2)

just a way of attracting mug money at poor prices/huge margins

fun or not, save your money

--

as to the rest, skybet and pp and bet365 are no go i am afriad

Agreed, but it adds a little excitement. Plus, most sites don't let you do F1 multiples sadly.

I don't usually do the combination bets actually, just mixing things up a little today - had to declare it otherwise people many be confused when I've made a bigger profit or loss than expected.

its not about sites accepting multiples, you are taking a price that is way below the true odds.

Shush, they are extremely popular. I mean, really popular.

[Killerkilsby]

Peter, Rosberg is 5/1 to be first lap leader thats bigger price than Vettel any reasons not to bet that?

[Peter-27]

What a load of bollocks those request-a-bets are Peter.

the six timer taking best prices pays over 8-1 (putting Ric over Ver in at 1/2)

just a way of attracting mug money at poor prices/huge margins

fun or not, save your money

--

as to the rest, skybet and pp and bet365 are no go i am afriad

Agreed, but it adds a little excitement. Plus, most sites don't let you do F1 multiples sadly.

I don't usually do the combination bets actually, just mixing things up a little today - had to declare it otherwise people many be confused when I've made a bigger profit or loss than expected.

its not about sites accepting multiples, you are taking a price that is way below the true odds.

Yep, can't argue with logic. Oh well, this is a very rare occurrence for me, let's see what happens. I'm in no way trying to defend it, I knew it was a bad bet.

Peter, Rosberg is 5/1 to be first lap leader thats bigger price than Vettel any reasons not to bet that?

Umm, didn't see that. Don't understand it. Worth a bet, yes.

[rinswun]

I'd like to recommend a bet in today's Aviva Premiership game between Wasps and Exeter Chiefs.

Wasps have recruited heavily over the summer and have bought in some big names - Kurtley Beale, Willie Le Roux, Kyle Eastmond, Alapati Leiua, Danny Cipriani - but injuries mean that only Cipriani makes the match day squad. In spite of this they still have a decent starting XV with emerging talent like Mullan, Hughes and Elliot Daly and with a fervent home crowd, I expect them to be pumped up and start the game strongly.

Exeter took the opposite approach to recruitment over the summer, preferring to stand pat with a squad that saw them reach the premiership final last season. The one addition they made was an excellent one in the form of Ollie Devoto and he should form an excellent midfield partnership with with highly rated Henry Slade.

Where I think the game will be won and lost is on the replacement bench and Exeter have by far the stronger of the subs. In Dave Dennis, Greg Holmes and Geoff Parling they have three international class forwards waiting to add their power and experience to the pack and Gareth Steenson is one of the most experienced fly halfs in the league and will have no problems steering his team to victory. Wasps have a couple of weapons themselves in Marty Moore and Joe Simpson but will be weakened when they have to introduce their subs.

All this leads me to believe that the bet today is for Wasps to lead at half time and Exeter to overtake them in the second stanza and seal the victory. We can get 9/1 on that eventuality coming to fruition with Mr Hill.

Recommend: £20 on Wasps/Exeter (/FT) with WilliamHill @ 9/1

[Killerkilsby]

What a load of bollocks those request-a-bets are Peter.

the six timer taking best prices pays over 8-1 (putting Ric over Ver in at 1/2)

just a way of attracting mug money at poor prices/huge margins

fun or not, save your money

--

as to the rest, skybet and pp and bet365 are no go i am afriad

Agreed, but it adds a little excitement. Plus, most sites don't let you do F1 multiples sadly.

I don't usually do the combination bets actually, just mixing things up a little today - had to declare it otherwise people many be confused when I've made a bigger profit or loss than expected.

its not about sites accepting multiples, you are taking a price that is way below the true odds.

Yep, can't argue with logic. Oh well, this is a very rare occurrence for me, let's see what happens. I'm in no way trying to defend it, I knew it was a bad bet.

Peter, Rosberg is 5/1 to be first lap leader thats bigger price than Vettel any reasons not to bet that?

Umm, didn't see that. Don't understand it. Worth a bet, yes.

Wiiii winner winner!

No idea why he was bigger price than Vettel.