Independence Referendum

[Rod Paradise]

Not sure of that argument, I'm pretty sure if there was an event for Yorkshire forced rhubarb it would still be under the UKTI, despite the product only being allowed to be made in Yorkshire.

[Somerled]

It's a little more complex than that Doobs. SDI isn't a Company, it's part of the Scottish Government.

Basically, UK books a largeish stall at the exhibition (still not as big as, say, belgium) and within that SDI have the freedom to brand their section however they wish. They did it much better in Singapore than they did in Tokyo. My hope would indeed be that Yorkshire could do the same, they don't seem to be able to at the moment. Not sure how it works down South.

[Rod Paradise]

I apologise for bringing the Embassy thing up - it was just an interesting one I'd read, no point getting sidetracked into it.

[OverTheBorder]

This is getting scarily close for my liking.  I find this thread very hard to read and sums up most of the stuff I read on social media.

I struggle to fathom the Yes argument.  We get told why would we be the only country ever to vote against our own independence.  How many of these countries became independent from a Union with devolved powers?  To compare this to exiting colonial rule is just ridiculous.  We have 300-400 years of shared history and looking around, are things really that bad?  I have travelled all over the world and am struck with the feeling that I am very very lucky to live in the United Kingdom.  Fair enough some have it bad, but really, are we going to do it any better alone?  the Yes campaign sounds amazing on paper, but that is all it is on.  I think arrboy sums up some great points, whilst probably doing so in a condescending manner which is somewhat counter productive.  The main point being economies of scale.  All the numbers thrown out about costs per capita etc are for a United Kingdom, with shared administration costs divided over cost centres.  The cost per capita for an independent Scotland would be significantly higher when you consider the building of systems to deal with independence and the whole administration being costed in Scotland.

Production etc as well is just nonsense stats.  Is there not English farmers paid not to farm because we cannot consume all we produce on our agricultural land.  England is likely our biggest export market. If we give them the finger, who will want to trade with Scotland south of the border?  I can imagine our export of crops and agriculture will reduce.  The english market will flourish as they gain identity and no longer have to conceded to Scottish products.  Maybe excluding beef which has a Quality reputation, but would not rush to buy much else would they?

The only thing thing this is going to do is gift millions if not Billions in Quangos and think tanks which will be at an ultimate cost to the whole of the United Kingdom.  Is the Yes campaign really going to tell me that for the next 3-4 years we are not going to get shafted for all the start up costs?  on the arse end of a massive global downturn, excuse me if I do not fancy that very much.

Then we have pensions, I love this triple lock idea, but who pays for this?  What levy falls on all of our Scottish Schemes.  What happens to the first Scottish company to go bust and be denied access to the PPF?  Do you know how much the PPF costs and how long it takes for it to become self sufficient, we have to start that from scratch.  Our national insurance pensions have to meet output from year dot, when we have a population with a high average age.  We have to negotiate what to do with my years of national insurance paid to date, and hope we get a good deal.  Assuming we do not renege on our national debt as our toys are out the pram as we are not allowed our currency union, then clearly we lose all national insurance contributions paid.  Then what happens?  How much will it cost us to pay state pensions from scratch?  What happens when we negotiate every point with our former partners, what possible course have the UK got to be reasonable with us?  Seriously, we will get shafted 10 ways to Sunday, and have to say cheers pal, thanks very much.

This army we are building?  What is the set up costs, where is this coming from?  We seem to be doing so much, I appreciate we pay perhaps more than our fair share in the UK, but is it really that much?  The start up costs of all this will just be ridiculous.  What so we can have some national pride and some strange social structure?

My favourite of all the arguments, if you do not like the SNP, we can vote them out, you are not voting for Salmond.  Then who are we going to vote for?  Labour?  Surely the only viable alternative, what are labour going to do?  mirror west minister, that is what! they will do what they are told! then we will get the same shit and will have paid billions for waving a few saltires about and having the feeling of being a bit more independent.

Utter farce!  Read a very good article about someone from Norway explaining how long it took to become OK as an independent state.  Norway being the poster child for independence of what we want to be! YAY £9 a pint for alcoholics!  lets hope benefits are £40k a year!  

I look forward to a lot of myth shouts, but to debunk a myth I expect more than the word myth written beside it.

[Kmac84]

This is getting scarily close for my liking.  I find this thread very hard to read and sums up most of the stuff I read on social media.

I struggle to fathom the Yes argument.  We get told why would we be the only country ever to vote against our own independence.  How many of these countries became independent from a Union with devolved powers?  To compare this to exiting colonial rule is just ridiculous.  We have 300-400 years of shared history and looking around, are things really that bad?  I have travelled all over the world and am struck with the feeling that I am very very lucky to live in the United Kingdom.  Fair enough some have it bad, but really, are we going to do it any better alone?  the Yes campaign sounds amazing on paper, but that is all it is on.  I think arrboy sums up some great points, whilst probably doing so in a condescending manner which is somewhat counter productive.  The main point being economies of scale.  All the numbers thrown out about costs per capita etc are for a United Kingdom, with shared administration costs divided over cost centres.  The cost per capita for an independent Scotland would be significantly higher when you consider the building of systems to deal with independence and the whole administration being costed in Scotland.

Maths not your strong point?  The Union has been existence for 307 years. 

Its not just that some have it bad, 16% of people in Scotland live in poverty, we have people in deprived area who have 3 and 4 generations of the same family on benefits because the hearts were ripped out of their community by the closure of many industries and nothing put in place to resolve that issue. 

20% of Children in Scotland live in poverty.  We are seeing an alarming rise in the number of foodbanks. 

We are a dumping ground for low paid jobs, so I would say more than some have had it bad. 

And this shared history you speak of you think its something to be proud of?  I am ashamed of the Union. 

In regards to your last point, can you substantiate that because Prof. Patrick Dunleavy disagrees http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27611563

Production etc as well is just nonsense stats.  Is there not English farmers paid not to farm because we cannot consume all we produce on our agricultural land.  England is likely our biggest export market. If we give them the finger, who will want to trade with Scotland south of the border?  I can imagine our export of crops and agriculture will reduce.  The english market will flourish as they gain identity and no longer have to conceded to Scottish products.  Maybe excluding beef which has a Quality reputation, but would not rush to buy much else would they?

What?  Let's see your stats on this.  And are you seriously suggesting English companies won't trade with Scotland.  Business trade with whoever provides them with the best product at the best price.  We are not gving English people the finger, this seems to be some sort of idea created and played upon by better together, stirring up some sort of hatred that we all hate the English blah de blah. 

The only thing thing this is going to do is gift millions if not Billions in Quangos and think tanks which will be at an ultimate cost to the whole of the United Kingdom.  Is the Yes campaign really going to tell me that for the next 3-4 years we are not going to get shafted for all the start up costs?  on the arse end of a massive global downturn, excuse me if I do not fancy that very much.

Do you have any proof of this, yet again seems like something taken from the Better Together handbook.  One thing the Scottish Government has been good at is streamlining and reducing the use of Quango's.  Things won't change materially overnight but this is for future generations.  As a small nation we are able to change the course and direction that the UK government is on ie bustoville with a figure approaching 1.6 trillion worth of debt.  When the currency union is agreed Scotland will take its share of this debt but looking at other small nations with similar output to us show their economies are growing at a much faster rate. 

Then we have pensions, I love this triple lock idea, but who pays for this?  What levy falls on all of our Scottish Schemes.  What happens to the first Scottish company to go bust and be denied access to the PPF?  Do you know how much the PPF costs and how long it takes for it to become self sufficient, we have to start that from scratch.  Our national insurance pensions have to meet output from year dot, when we have a population with a high average age.  We have to negotiate what to do with my years of national insurance paid to date, and hope we get a good deal.  Assuming we do not renege on our national debt as our toys are out the pram as we are not allowed our currency union, then clearly we lose all national insurance contributions paid.  Then what happens?  How much will it cost us to pay state pensions from scratch?  What happens when we negotiate every point with our former partners, what possible course have the UK got to be reasonable with us?  Seriously, we will get shafted 10 ways to Sunday, and have to say cheers pal, thanks very much.

http://wingsoverscotland.com/WeeBlueBookDesktopEdition.pdf Page 25.

This army we are building?  What is the set up costs, where is this coming from?  We seem to be doing so much, I appreciate we pay perhaps more than our fair share in the UK, but is it really that much?  The start up costs of all this will just be ridiculous.  What so we can have some national pride and some strange social structure?

The vast bulk willcome from our settlement with rUK but current figures suggest if we spent the same as the rUK spent on defense in Scotland there would be a surplus of £800 million each year based on what we currently pay in.  What is this weird social structure?  You think it's weird to be normal like the overwhelming majority of other countries in the world and be independent and stand on your own 2 feet?  As for National pride, I am pround to be Scottish but given Britains record I am ashamed to be British.   I want wholesale changes and whilst I don't expect to get everything I want from Independence I have a firm belief that the best people to run Scotland's affairs are the people who live ad work here.  I am voting for the future, not only mind but for my nieces, any kids that I have and their kids. 

My favourite of all the arguments, if you do not like the SNP, we can vote them out, you are not voting for Salmond.  Then who are we going to vote for?  Labour?  Surely the only viable alternative, what are labour going to do?  mirror west minister, that is what! they will do what they are told! then we will get the same shit and will have paid billions for waving a few saltires about and having the feeling of being a bit more independent.

Utter farce!  Read a very good article about someone from Norway explaining how long it took to become OK as an independent state.  Norway being the poster child for independence of what we want to be! YAY £9 a pint for alcoholics!  lets hope benefits are £40k a year!  

I look forward to a lot of myth shouts, but to debunk a myth I expect more than the word myth written beside it.

This is the bit I should shout twat at rather than myth.   If you can't see that Labour have to change course then you are deluded.  We can vote Salmond out, and its not about him or the SNP.  He is already on record of saying he would step down as leader and disband the SNP if it guaranteed a yes vote.   There are many excllent young people entering politics who have the desire to create a better country post independence.  There are 100,000's Labour voters and Labour members moving to LFI.  Who imo will be the Labour party in 2016.   The Greens will be well placed given the changes to the voting system that will come into play. 

The average cost of a pint in Norwar is around £6.80.  That is a price worth paying for independence imo.  But it's not about the cost of beer.  Its about self determination, its about being in control of what you do, its about creating the best future for our kids, grand kids and their kids.  It's about avoiding illegal wars, its about creating an egaliterian society, its about making our votes count and bringing more accountability to our parliament and elected representatives.  It's most definately not about flag waiving we can eave that to the brits and their last night at the proms pish. 

[TightEnd]

apart from dissing last night at the proms, its nice to have a substantive reply to a serious post, rather than just throwing forum tomatoes at anyone with a different point of view kmac. more please

[Rod Paradise]

I tend to laugh at the idea of not buying from Scotland over taking the huff at Scottish independence, to counter that I'd ask to be pointed at the businesses who are currently being charitable and buying Scottish products when they could get the same thing at the same price from elsewhere? The idea of business not being about pragmatism and prices bemuses me.

On the same tack the concept of International Banks making a moral judgement should Scotland 'default' on debts the UK treasury admit they are responsible for is laughable. I had a search on what happened when the Baltic states left the USSR, despite agreeing to take a share of USSR debt, they realised they didn't have to and left Russia saddled with it (since Russia claimed to be the continuor state from the USSR they were liable, as rUK would be from the UK). Were they made financial pariahs? Former soviet states borrowed $200 billion dollars worth of international funding, with the Baltic states in particular getting their funding at investment grade market rates, due to their output & their debt free status.


I'm also going to address the question 'is it so bad', well for a country with the UK's wealth, yes it is. A few verifiable stats (from last year) on Britain as a whole:
# it's Britain that is the fourth most unequal developed country on earth,
# pay has in recent years fallen faster than in all but three EU countries
# our people work the third longest hours in Europe for the second lowest wages in the OECD
# we have Europe's third highest housing costs, highest train fares and the second worst levels of fuel poverty.
# disgustingly we have the highest infant mortality rate in Western Europe (Portugal may have passed us in the latest stats, but being anywhere low is still disgusting).
# we have some of the worst child poverty in the industrialised world.
# it's our elderly people who are the fourth poorest pensioners in the EU.
# it's Britain which has the eighth biggest gender pay gap in Europe and child care costs much higher than most European countries.
# British productivity is 16% behind the average for advanced economies and we have the worst record on industrial production of the rich world.
# 40% of the total value of all privatisations in the Western world between 1980 and 1996 happened in the UK

Reading that I'm surprised that the rest of the UK isn't with us in rejecting the Westminster system of Government which is failing us badly. Of course we don't get to read that in the popular press, it's full of good old Blighty.

When success for an Indy Scotland doesn't mean we need to become the best of the best, but to achieve average for Europe, because that will be a vast improvement for most of our citizens, yes, I feel it is so bad.

[OverTheBorder]

Right, I am going to bite now.  I have avoided getting involved with most of this as like the "better together" handbook you quote, the "yes" handbook is fairly full with nice fancy numbers.

Sooooo let us go:

"Maths not your strong point?  The Union has been existence for 307 years."

OK, I said 300-400, 307...Tick.  My maths is fine, I just did not fancy looking up the exact number.

"20% of Children in Scotland live in poverty.  We are seeing an alarming rise in the number of foodbanks.  

We are a dumping ground for low paid jobs, so I would say more than some have had it bad."


We are coming out of a recession and there is the lasting threat of a double dip recession.  Of course things are not going to be ideal, but I assume any Westminster government will be tackling similar issues.  A vote for Independence is not a magic wand that will fix this.  You quote emotive issues and state categorically that you can fix them.  Why should I trust a Scottish politician any more than a British one?  What are these low paid jobs?  I live in a former mining community, I look around, things are not that bad.  The cost of living is low, I do not see any example of child poverty, in what should be a fairly deprived area.  I know it is there, and it breaks my heart, but I am not going to be blinkered by thinking that an independent Scotland can fix that.

"In regards to your last point, can you substantiate that because Prof. Patrick Dunleavy disagrees http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27611563Maths not your strong point?  The Union has been existence for 307 years."

He says it will cost £1.6 billion, what do I need to substantiate, I said it will cost millions iff not billions.  So I think me and the Prof are bang on point.  He does not mention economies of scale at all.  So you tell me if a service costs £x per person to run UK wide, with all the administration, marketing etc spread across 50 million people, if you take the same service across 5 million people with appropriate administration, marketing etc still required but spread over a smaller number, you telling me the cost is not greater?

 "What?  Let's see your stats on this.  And are you seriously suggesting English companies won't trade with Scotland.  Business trade with whoever provides them with the best product at the best price.  We are not gving English people the finger, this seems to be some sort of idea created and played upon by better together, stirring up some sort of hatred that we all hate the English blah de blah.  "

I am saying that English companies will prefer to deal with English farmers.  We are choosing to leave the Union.  I buy Scottish at the moment, but this is going to create a stronger English identity, as most of the English currently have a strong Union identity.  I lived there for 5 years, so I know a little about the mind set.  I admit if we undercut them, then yes, they will trade, but that puts a price war on our door step.  With increased transport costs for longer distances, how do we undercut them?  We give better subsidies I suppose.  More money out of the tax payer.

"Do you have any proof of this, yet again seems like something taken from the Better Together handbook.  One thing the Scottish Government has been good at is streamlining and reducing the use of Quango's.  Things won't change materially overnight but this is for future generations.  As a small nation we are able to change the course and direction that the UK government is on ie bustoville with a figure approaching 1.6 trillion worth of debt.  When the currency union is agreed Scotland will take its share of this debt but looking at other small nations with similar output to us show their economies are growing at a much faster rate."

Do I need to prove this?  Civil servants do nothing quickly and nothing cheaply.  Your man professor dunleavy said £1.6 billion.  "If" the currency is agreed.  We will negotiate are share of the debt, from a fairly poor position.  There is a lot of ways that calculation can be done.

"http://wingsoverscotland.com/WeeBlueBookDesktopEdition.pdf Page 25."

LOL, I read that.  Does not tell me anything.  The state pension is an unfunded arrangement.  Therefore the cost of ongoing pensions is met directly from the current NI contributions going in.  In this type of arrangement, the older the average age, the more people have to pay.  So therefore either subsidy is required or NI will need to go up.  Not to mention again the additional administration costs of running it.

Turning to the historic NI.  Steve Webb (who is the most technically gifted pensions ministers you will ever see) stated a position based on his knowledge of the facts.  Alex Salmond has stated that Scotland could renege on the national debt if we do not get a currency union.  If we do that, we will not see a penny of NI, as lets be honest, they would not have even imagined he would do something like that when making these statements.

This answers none of my PPF points.

"I am pround to be Scottish but given Britains record I am ashamed to be British.   I want wholesale changes and whilst I don't expect to get everything I want from Independence I have a firm belief that the best people to run Scotland's affairs are the people who live ad work here.  I am voting for the future, not only mind but for my nieces, any kids that I have and their kids."

I see no reason to be ashamed.  In the last 307 years (I know the answer now), we have achieved some wonderful things.  We have fought wars together, died together, and generally lived in what seems a fine state of equality.  Probably not at the start, but I have never felt like a second class citizen in all my years.

I think we will need to agree to disagree on that one.  As I cannot change personal opinion.

"This is the bit I should shout twat at rather than myth.   If you can't see that Labour have to change course then you are deluded.  We can vote Salmond out, and its not about him or the SNP.  He is already on record of saying he would step down as leader and disband the SNP if it guaranteed a yes vote.   There are many excllent young people entering politics who have the desire to create a better country post independence.  There are 100,000's Labour voters and Labour members moving to LFI.  Who imo will be the Labour party in 2016.   The Greens will be well placed given the changes to the voting system that will come into play.  

The average cost of a pint in Norwar is around £6.80.  That is a price worth paying for independence imo.  But it's not about the cost of beer.  Its about self determination, its about being in control of what you do, its about creating the best future for our kids, grand kids and their kids.  It's about avoiding illegal wars, its about creating an egaliterian society, its about making our votes count and bringing more accountability to our parliament and elected representatives.  It's most definately not about flag waiving we can eave that to the brits and their last night at the proms pish. "

Now we are debating remember, we do not need to be calling each other twats.  I strongly believe that Labour Scotland will be very similar to labour England.  They are one party.  There policies will be similar, they may get rid of Trident, they are scrapping the bedroom tax anyway but what else is it going to do?  Where is Trident going to go, probably to the North of England where we are still in the fall out zone.  If you vote for independence and do not give the SNP 8 years to bring their vision to life, then you are voting out of national pride which is a blinkered view.

[Kmac84]

Eh Dunleavy never ever said 1.6 billion that was the figure quoted by the UK Gov, Dunleavy said around 200 million and that the UK Gove had taken his figure and multiplied it by silly numbers, after this they said they hadn't used his figures and t was some geezer from Canada. 

This is also bigger than your local community, you sight the union as something bigger and better well look at it as a whole country. 

I'm off out the now, canvassing and then buying furniture for my new house so don't really have the time to answer your other points.  But try searching some reliable sites and not just taking what the media print as fact. 

[OverTheBorder]

Eh Dunleavy never ever said 1.6 billion that was the figure quoted by the UK Gov, Dunleavy said around 200 million and that the UK Gove had taken his figure and multiplied it by silly numbers, after this they said they hadn't used his figures and t was some geezer from Canada. 

This is also bigger than your local community, you sight the union as something bigger and better well look at it as a whole country. 

I'm off out the now, canvassing and then buying furniture for my new house so don't really have the time to answer your other points.  But try searching some reliable sites and not just taking what the media print as fact. 

Sorry £1.5 billion at the upper end of the spectrum.  When have you ever known a government project not to be at the upper end?  They habitually under egg figures to suit their purposes.

I haven't quoted the media at all.  You quote more than me.  My opinions are based on my own thought.  I do not read much either side put out, as it is slanted.  Your whole argument is based on the Yes campaign handbook.  I mean you even quoted the wings book to answer on of my questions.  I have seen your arguments 1000 times on FB, to say all this can be delivered is just fantasy.

[nirvana]

There is zero point in bandying about numbers and stats and tricking yourself into believing you have made a rational determination which way to vote on this issue. Taking emotion out of the issue as people are so fond of talking about in business, in politics etc is just silly too - all decisions are based on emotions because we are humans, everything else we come up with in terms of rationale is to support an already decided view. Even people who are undecided actually are, they just don't recognise it yet.

There are plenty of examples of smaller countries having better standards of living than the UK and plenty with worse. No one can determine where Scotland may end up on a prosperity scale and tbh who cares, first world problems etc - it really can't ever get much worse than the status quo today without some global borderless meltdown

The only decision is whether in your gut you are a scaredy cat, cowed by the English ruling elite and trapped in some kind of Stockholm Syndromesque nightmare, or whether you are a Braveheart who wants to be cowed & bullied by a Scottish ruling elite.

Whichever way the vote goes, nothing much will really change at the level of society we all exist in.. obviously.

If I was Scottish I would definitely go the Braveheart route, feel like I kicked a few shins and then join my friend Don Quixote for a ride.

[horseplayer]

Looks to me a case of saying one thing in public to avoid the hassle/violence/eggs and once you are in the privacy of the ballot box area ticking the no box (better the devil you know).  I really think No is becoming close to a maximum bet at the prices once the hype dies down and reality sets in and people realise the bully boy tactics that are taking place from the yes vote.

In Quebec in 1995 the separatists had 7% lead in final polls. They lost.

similar may happen this time. people too intimidated to publically shout up for No, and it is also much easier to do a campaign for change than the campaign for a status quo to remain....but in the safety of the ballot box they will go back to what feels safest.


there's no sign of this panelbase report either is there...was rumoured to be yes in the poll lead but then pulled because it didn't....

Tighty don't believe the rubbish from the Mail & Telegraph - you could get a full time job showing the holes in their nonsense.

The No side has had a tactic of crying foul on Yes at every turn, even though the incidents of violence are far more from No, they haven't been getting the big press that egging that clown Murphy got. The day the egg attack was the main leader in the press a man was convicted of death threats to Salmond. There have been attacks on Yes campaign stalls in Edinburgh recently, a few weeks back there were 3 arrests for racist abuse of an asian-descent Yes campaigner in Dumfries but the Mail runs with 2 flags removed in a couple of years as the crime of Yes?

Was it the Mail or the Telegraph writing about the fears of Scottish abuse for English competitors at the Commonwealth games? There had never been any suggestion of it so they invented a crisis - which didn't materialise.

At least the Independent had some balance: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-could-the-referendum-be-settled-by-the-english-9714987.html

Good post Rod

Posted a few weeks back now i felt No were very very complacent to start with and could pay for it. One thing cant be in doubt they are panicking now, at the very least

[Woodsey]

So did anyone actually have a lump on the yes when the odds suggested there was no chance?

[DMorgan]

Its the argument that the rest of the world views the UK as homogeneous blob therefore Scotland needs independence to have a strong national identity and reap greater trade benefits that this would bring that gets me. I haven't witnessed a single example of this 'Englands kid brother' mentality and in my experience Scotland has a very strong national identity, no less than England.

When we're starting to emerge from the biggest global downturn in history it feels like the UKs graph is just starting to upswing a little, obviously the gains in term of GDP take time to filter through to employment and wage growth but it feels like the Yes campaign have just draw a horizontal line and said right, well things can't possibly get any worse staying in the UK, and we think that we can do better on our own so lets go.

The Yes campaign call it scaremongering but any rational person can see that there is at least the potential for this to go really very badly and with not a huge amount of upside to becoming a smaller fish in the same big pond in the current economic climate.

[Rod Paradise]

So did anyone actually have a lump on the yes when the odds suggested there was no chance?

Yep - sadly not as much as I would have liked - bike expenses got in the way.