The other By-Election.....
Theresa May is visiting Copeland tomorrow – obviously the Tories believe they are going to win. The PM’s 700 mile round-trip comes with just over week left until polling day (23 February). Copeland has been Labour since the seat was created in 1983. She wouldn’t be going up there if the Tories didn’t think it was a cert….
Still 2/5 at Hills, as low as 1/5
Be tempted to back Labour to cling on here. Their candidate is former doctor and blue light ambulance driver for St Johns and is campaigning on the closure of the maternity ward and other services in the local hospital ( the next nearest unit is 40 miles away for some). She's not mentioning Corbyn at all. Labour have never lost this seat (although it's often been close). The Tories are primarily campaigning on nuclear power issues which are a big issue here as Sellafield is in the constituency and Corbyn is strongly anti things atomic.
In a general election I think the Tories would win but it's possible enough of their supporters won't bother to vote in protest at the hospital cuts, and equally enough disgruntled Labour supporters will either stick with them or look at other alternatives.
Labour are making positive noises about their chances here which is in itself unusual in an age where parties try to play down their expectations.
Again the Tories may well win but I think the NHS issues are a big problem for them to overcome and the market has overreacted to their chances. Labour are available at over 3/1 on Betfair albeit for pennies and 11/4 generally with the bookmakers which seems a more than fair price to me.
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