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1  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Next President of the United States on: January 06, 2021, 06:30:16 PM
Had fun railing the election.

Can someone please explain this market

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.170918115



The market is the number of Democrats in the senate, the 1.02 fav is 48 as there are 2 independents (Bernie Sanders is one of them) who vote with the Democrats on most issues. So while you see 50/50 split in the media today as the likely outcome but that isn’t technically true but it is in practical terms.
2  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Next President of the United States on: November 11, 2020, 09:04:15 PM
Betfair markets on the election are still officially insane!

Yeah Trump still with approximately 10% shot! Combination of people not wanting money tied potentially till next year on a 1/10 shot and plenty of enthusiasm for Trumps completely baseless legal battles/ attempts at a coup.

I cannot begin to imagine how messy this is going to get if Trump somehow succeeds (massive long shot IMO), civil war anyone?
3  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Next President of the United States on: November 10, 2020, 03:28:58 PM
There was an unprecedented occurrence today when Fox News (of all networks) cut the White House Press Secretary’s press conference in mid-flight, on the basis that she was accusing the Democrats of welcoming illegal voter activity, without producing any evidence.



Neil Cavuto has been a bit of a never-Trumper, regularly criticising and fact-checking him, and Trump has returned the criticism a few times and said that Fox should sack him. There are a few other Fox presenters who are tough on Trump, and they seem to survive, despite most of the network pushing his case. I’m not sure whether Cavuto has been emboldened by the election result, or has been told he can weigh in at this stage if he wants, but this was dramatic and you would normally expect there to be consequences. Presumably the White House will complain, but I’m not sure where the Murdochs are positioning themselves right now. It could be that they want the network to revert to standard Republicanism. Also, Kayleigh may have been breaking the law herself, as she is a government employee, and isn’t allowed to get involved in political party issues during working time.

Fox are definitely distancing themselves from Trump. Murdoch is not a fan of losers, he did an about turn in 1997 here when it was obvious Blair would win.
4  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Next President of the United States on: November 08, 2020, 01:09:41 AM
Rudy always delivers:



The fact this was in the car park of landscaping business called “Four seasons landscaping”, which is next to an adult shop and opposite crematorium in a run down area of Philly. I presume they mixed it up the four seasons hotel which is right near where the vote count is taking place,

It is beyond parody, I can’t stop giggling every time I think about it.
5  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Next President of the United States on: November 07, 2020, 09:50:59 AM
How can a state count 99% of its vote in a few hours but be unable to count the remaining 1% in three days?

The last ballots will be a mixture of disputed ballots, ballots that have been partially damaged, if you have a president shouting fraud all the time you are going to be very careful about how you count these with observers disputing them. Also there are  provisional ballots where a person votes on the day but requested a vote by mail so it has to be checked that it hasn’t been duplicated and military/overseas late arriving ballots.
6  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Next President of the United States on: November 07, 2020, 01:10:02 AM
You have to love the idea that the Democrats are able to run this sophisticated election rigging operation and yet, in an election where they are forecast to win the Senate, manage to rig it so that they don't win the Senate.

Philadelphia is one of the only counties in Pennsylvania where Trump has done better than 2016. The Trump campaign aren’t even trying to spread logical rumours of fraud as they know it doesn’t matter to their base, as they will eat up anything they feed them. This is all about Trumps ego and where he goes next.
 
7  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Next President of the United States on: November 06, 2020, 06:25:40 PM
The size of Bidens victory is going to make a lot of these legal challenges pointless, whether they are true or not. The tipping point state is likely to be Arizona or Pennsylvania where Biden will have around 1 point lead and that is assuming you could get Georgia and Wisconsin results flipped. 3 successful legal challenges changing 10s if not 100s of thousand votes ain’t’ happening.
8  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Next President of the United States on: November 06, 2020, 06:18:07 PM
It seems to me if there's direct specific evidence of any voter fraud it should be investigated.

These Trump claims about victory remind me of the Labour party and the remain campaigns claiming moral victories in UK votes and blaming the meejah and shenanigans for why they lost. But lose they did and pretending otherwise is ridiculous.

I would hope that those people who supported action in courts around the referendum result are at least somewhat sheepish at being too critical of Trump's floundering contempt for a democratic vote and resort to legal bollox. Probably not a direct parallel but it's part of the same continuum of losers really not being able to accept the loss.

Anyway, main point is can anyone conceive of why the legal efforts and potential refusal to concede ?

There cannot be any serious expectation that a legit result, with votes counted in line with the individual State's procedures, would be reversed by the courts - so what is the point ? Is there a point ?







The Labour Party or leader of the party has never disputed the result of a general election that it has lost.  Corbyn made some very silly comments after last years election about winning arguments but he did not dispute the result.  Trump is saying that the whole election process is rigged against him with no evidence, 2 very different things.
9  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Next President of the United States on: November 05, 2020, 04:11:12 PM
It is obvious the polls have underestimated Trump and there will be a lot of questions why. I think we will find the betting markets were actually not far off, because of this big Blue shift late. The most likely electoral map is now 306-232, and I think Nirvana got Trump plus 80 on election night, that really is not far off. The popular vote is going to expand greatly in the next few days/ weeks and Nate Silver has done quick maths estimating around a 4.5 point lead, which when taking into account Trumps electoral college advantage 1.5 on Biden was about right.

10  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Next President of the United States on: November 04, 2020, 11:47:27 AM
So if Biden takes Wisconsin where it is reported he is now ahead with the absentees and very Dem cities being counted, , he needs one of North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan or Pennsylvania for the presidency? Or have I got my maths wrong?

Nevada and Arizona are not Biden locks in my opinion. The rest adds up and I think Michigan is the most likely candidate for Biden.
11  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Next President of the United States on: November 04, 2020, 11:42:11 AM
and it may be Biden + Republican Senate? so scope to do much limited?

Every newscast, every poll, virtually every respectable pundit told us American voters had collectively turned heavily against Trump. That manifestly wasn't true. In fact without COVID Trump would have won handily?

The US commentariat seems to be unrepresentative of large swatches of the country? suppose its the same here

It is clearly a big problem here and in the US. I think the increasing education gap is the big issue here, by the media’s nature you are going to be highly educated to get your foot in the door and the heavy consumers of said media (not including social media) is educated. It is a massive echo chamber, while the populist governments around the world have been a lot better at getting to the non university educated masses.

The polling does have me more confused, it clearly has missed badly in the battleground states and that whole industry is going to have to look at its methodology.

12  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Next President of the United States on: November 04, 2020, 04:31:17 AM
Fox News has declared Biden for Arizona! This is all going to be on the Upper Midwest sometime later in the week with BIden needing 2 of Pa, Mi, WI.

I predict this is going to be messy, very messy.
13  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Next President of the United States on: November 04, 2020, 03:28:39 AM
Can get 4.5 for Biden on BF at the mo.

The market is pretty volatile to say the least, moving slightly back to Biden now.

Overall this is going to be very close, as Arizona looks good for Biden, which means their are scenarios with a tie that are pretty realistic.
14  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Next President of the United States on: November 04, 2020, 12:25:50 AM
Looking good for Trump in Florida, he has done very well in Miami area
15  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Next President of the United States on: November 03, 2020, 09:51:18 PM
Had a bet on electoral college votes with Trump +81

Now just off to research what states = what college votes.

Think I might have reversed the normal path for successful punters of research then bet

Playing around with the electoral college map, Florida is the key state for this bet.
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