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46  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: June 05, 2017, 04:58:21 PM
and it keeps coming

YouGov 2017 election model estimates (5 June)

CON 42%, 268-344 seats
LAB 38%, 234-299 seats

For full results visit: https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

remember different turnout model to ICM, higher weighting to young voter/2015 non voter turning out more this time

 Click to see full-size image.


The mid point estimate of this is chaos, don't see how either side can form a government.
47  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: June 03, 2017, 10:50:23 PM
Woodsey deffo likes to wind up the left leaning people on here. Though he does seem to treat supporting the Tories like following a sports team, rather than an actual political discussion so you are never going to get a debate, why bother?
48  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: June 03, 2017, 06:43:55 PM
Question. In six days time how many party leaders will have resigned and who? Nearest the pin wins a huge prize* *possibly

Based on what I think is the likely outcome (Tory maj of 50), I think Farron and Nuttall go, Corbyn clings on and the Labour Party potentially split.
49  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: June 03, 2017, 10:29:11 AM
Seems incredible that we think he should compromise some of his principles to be more electable, literally the whole point is that he's spent his whole life with unshakeable principles that he believes are best for all people and that's what we on the left want in a politician. The alternative is people who will say or do literally anything to try and be electable. Their record suggests they'll change their mind on literally everything if the net result is a few more votes and approval from Dacre, Barclay, Murdoch.

I admire Corbyn for his principled stance on things but sometimes being able to comprise is key. I simply don't agree with stance on Nukes, it shows lack of awareness of why UK still has them ( a deterrent). The likely best possible outcome is a hung parliament and to get into number 10 he is going to have to compromise.

I still going to vote for him because despite his faults, because the alternative in my constituency is the Tories who have fought a truly awful campaign and appear to stand for very little apart from TM getting round a table with the EU.

As an aside and to show I am not truly bias. I went to the hustings in Croydon the other night and found my sitting MP Gavin Barwell (Tory) to be a far more credible politician than the labour challenger. He spoke well and even admitted the government had not done well enough regarding housing, I respect that.

50  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: June 02, 2017, 10:16:35 PM
As someone who is going to vote Labour his stance on nuclear weapons is incredibly naive, no one of sane mind wasn't to use the things but you keep the pretence up you are as a a deterrent, it's simple game theory. All he had to say he would use them as a last resort.

May was better tonight, can only improve her position as expectations were so low. Finally a good night for the tories probably.
51  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: June 01, 2017, 05:31:23 PM
Tory majority of around 50, which would have been more like 150 at the start of the campaign. I think Labour have fought a decent campaign and have brought round those of us who are normally labour voters but were looking for new homes. I am just about to head out to the Croydon Central hustings (very tight marignal) and was intially doing so to size up the progressive candidates but now almost certain to vote Labour.
52  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: May 31, 2017, 10:08:02 PM
These TV debates are nothing more than a circus. They seem to serve little purpose other than to allow the broadcasters meet their quotas for documentary/news/political broadcasts. I managed to stay tuned for about 10 minutes before I decided to turn over before my TV got a foot through it. There were times when at least 4 of the panelists were talking at the same time and it was more like teenagers trying to out-shout each other in a classroom; the moderator didn't really seem to be in control, but are they ever?

On the basis of what is heard in these 'debates', it's extremely unlikely that anyone trying to listen will make a voting decision. To most observers, I fear it will simply confirm all the negative perceptions of politicians and the political process.

I certainly understand why May didn't want to participate: like her decision to call this election, she was damned if she did and damned if she didn't.

Most of this I can emphasise with but calling this election is political opportunism. This election does not get called without a massive lead in the polls and Corbyn as labour leader. There was no need to make such a move to start Brexit negotiations.

53  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: May 31, 2017, 10:00:57 PM
Doubt it changed much either way. Rudd held up well. Her dad died on Monday and she went through with doing it. Tough lady. Unlike her boss, it might be said.

Knowing that makes May seem even more useless, that she still let her do it instead of her.

Does anyone think May is ill or something else is wrong mentally. As I have been amazed by how she has unraveled in this campaign, seems unable to put a convincing thought together. Surely she wouldn't have risen this far being this incompetent in the spotlight.

Even as a minister she will never have been under this kind of spotlight/pressure.

Also she was quite well known (according to a spectator article I read) a the submarine. she would take a dive and go missing when going got tough

No hiding when you are pm and your campaign has gone off the rails.


Interesting, my other half (civil servant) had some dealings with her and found her to be very comptent but I guess that it is very different to being a leader and public speaker.
54  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: May 31, 2017, 09:45:23 PM
Doubt it changed much either way. Rudd held up well. Her dad died on Monday and she went through with doing it. Tough lady. Unlike her boss, it might be said.

Knowing that makes May seem even more useless, that she still let her do it instead of her.

Does anyone think May is ill or something else is wrong mentally. As I have been amazed by how she has unraveled in this campaign, seems unable to put a convincing thought together. Surely she wouldn't have risen this far being this incompetent in the spotlight.
55  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: May 31, 2017, 09:42:38 PM
I thought Rudd held up quite well given the hand she was dealt and that was before I knew of her dad's death. Certainly did better than Theresa would have.

I can't warm to Farron, too many long answers with no point and speaking over people, the lib dems had every chance at my vote before this campaign but not now if Clegg was still leader different story.

Others pretty much performed to expectation including Nuttall who is a vile man IMO.

56  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: May 31, 2017, 02:54:04 PM
I think the lib dems will be hoping to be not be put in a situation like the Yougov poll is predicting where a coalition can be formed with the 10 or so MP's they are predicted to get are crucial. As if they refuse to form a coalition, a government is likely to be forced back to yet another election where they would be likely to sustain further losses. Rock and a hard place.
57  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: April 23, 2017, 04:48:27 PM
this is an interesting thesis.

i wonder if you agree with it?

Election Data‏ @election_data

As I've said all along, unwinding the instinctive negative emotional judgement on Corbyn (which is by now hard-wired) is implausible

I've tested it. The negativity towards Corbyn is of an emotional scale and intensity which is unprecedented in such research.

Corbyn loyalists regularly express intense, emotive, barely rational hostility about Conservatives. The prob is that's what many voters feel re: Jez.

So any policy stuff fails to cut through, they dislike the man




Absolutely, my political leanings have always been slightly left of centre and my social media bubble reflects this. So I see quite a lot from Corbyn loyalists and when one of the problems is the contempt that some to seem to hold towards anyone who doesn't believe the same.

I am exactly the type of voter they need, I like a lot of the policies about a fairer society but have issues with Corbyn's ability to enforce comptently. Also as a remainer I feel that Corbyn was next to useless in the referendum and a clearer pro remain campaign from Labour could have changed the result. I move next month to the Croydon central constituency, conservative majority less than 200 over labour in 2015, my vote in most elections would be a big one to get.
58  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: Where's tikay? on: March 15, 2017, 11:51:31 PM
Geez, here's to a speedy recovery.
59  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: Beginners Running - Advice Needed on: March 08, 2017, 10:35:33 PM
Bit late to the party but yeah I went from doing no exercise about 3 years ago to now running regularly. The couch to 5k program is excellent and is great way of easing yourself into it, instead of pushing too fast too soon and injuring yourself or demotivating yourself as it is too hard.

Pity you are not near a parkrun as they are brilliant events and a very non judgemental environment for getting out and exercising.
60  Poker Forums / Poker Hand Analysis / Re: When do we shove our Premium Hands? on: March 01, 2017, 10:59:18 PM
Hi, shows how far behind I am on blonde. Just decided to look at my replies to topics I posted in and found this.

Yeah not been about much, quit poker about a year ago, eventually the curve caught up with me and the online games were just miserable. Had a good run, but it has been eye opening trying to get back in the real world. Moving down to London with the other half in a couple of months, so all change.
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