Had a bet on electoral college votes with Trump +81

Now just off to research what states = what college votes.

Think I might have reversed the normal path for successful punters of research then bet

Playing around with the electoral college map, Florida is the key state for this bet.

I am going to stay up all night. If Biden wins in a landslide that could become apparent as early as all Florida polls close (1am), as Florida counts quickly and a clear Biden win here means Trump almost has no path to victory.

I am probably going to watch CNN as they are going to be very pro Biden but will have some good coverage, then use various twitter informed accounts and websites. The New Times is doing something called the needle which is going to be live in the key states of Fl, GA and NC which will let you see as the votes are counted which way the race is going. As counts could be all over the place and bias to one side or the other depending if they count mail or in person votes first,

Certainly a big gamble by Starmer and likely to cause a lot of division with the party but not nearly as much in the electorate. I think the “left” of the Labour Party has rarely  had a big enough base to win a election, 2017 is the closest that Labour with a leader from the left has ever got.
No doubt some will not vote  for Starmer in 2024 but the calculation that many of the floating voters in the centre will sway towards Labour especially if the fallout from COVID and brexit is bad, that demographic is a lot bigger.
Looking forward to my next CLP (Constituency Labour Party) meeting!

MT is taking about party not individual presidents.  George Bush snr was a one term president but followed Reagan who was a republican as well,

Seems like a political own goal to offer 60m in negotiations and then only give 22m when the negotiations breakdown. This is a bad look.

It continues to be the strangest betting market I can recollect. The Hunter Biden story doesn’t seem like a vote changer to me, the Trump campaign need the allegations to come from a reputable source for this to have an effect in my opinion beyond energising his base.

the market move over the weekend is said to be a growing awareness the "wall of Trump voters" who will turn out on the day, and won't be voting in advance, it is said?

Feels a bit like the supposed wall of young voters for Labour in 2019 rumours on Election Day and Boris turning up in his constituency campaigning on the night of the election when actually the polls had it pretty much right. I have noticed a lot of Trump supporters convinced by the lot of people turned up at a Trump rally/ appearance as some kind of validation he is winning.

So much of this coming from how the 2016 result has been misunderstood, a lot of the factors that allowed Trump to win then aren’t the same now. Apart from his electoral college advantage which is possibly bigger this time than it was then but he needs to be within 5 points nationally for that come into play.

The chance of either pulling out at this stage is very small, millions of people have already voted in states that allow early voting as well. If Trump was going to throw it in he would have done so last week from his hospital bed imo.

This Trump COVID saga is starting to feel like the Cummings driving to Durham. Timelines from his doctor don’t add up to what the public have been told, he has been ill for 72 hours. Then we have the chief of staff on video (but off the record) saying that Trump is a lot worse than his Doctor is saying.

You would think this would sink most election campaigns but with Trump does any of this matter as much.

The Donald has tested positive for Covid19 went to check see what that has done to betfair and they have suspended the market

Market is back, Biden has shortened a touch. Though that is just following the trend since the debate.

I would consider myself to be very against conspiracy theories, but can’t help thinking that this might be the Trump campaigns last throw of the dice, hoping for some sympathy and “rally around the flag” effect.

I am quite surprised Biden is as big as 1.65 on betfair.  I know a week is a long time in politics yada yada. but it feels less close than last time and last time Trump was a much bigger price. 

I know your memory plays tricks on you, but I thought Trump was about 5/1 when I backed him, and the polls were closer?  I accept it may have been a timing thing, but I am sure I backed Trump when the pollls were quite close, and am pretty sure I didn't do so when they were as much as 7% apart (current poll of polls on the BBC).  I am not sure there is an easy way of checking this as I don't keep records of each bet in that much detail for betfair (where I assume I made the bet, though can't even be sure of that).

It really is one of the strangest betting markets I can ever remember. There is a lot of what happened in 2016 and everyone thinking it is the same, whereas Bidens polling lead is bigger, stable and with a lot less undecideds than Hillary In 2016.

Backing Trump at anything less than 2/1, you either have to believe the polls are very wrong (outside the margin of error) or that Trump has very real chance of winning an election in the Supreme Court on some voter fraud ruling.

The Lions are touring Australia at the same time, would not be surprised to see one of those players end up playing in the Ashes. Mason Crane feels like a good candidate for that, especially given the winter he had playing grade cricket last year.

aggers gets boycott

a very good wind up!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p05b5j5t

Listened to this a couple of times, very funny. Aggers and Andrew (the scorer) play their roles excellently.

Tough one for universities innit.

I'm sure  big % of uni degrees are just a waste of money, but there is the chance to make a huge success of uni and everyone has the right to that experience.

Teachers get it so hard over this, truth is most teachers don't have a clue about how to get a job with a Geography degree - and why would they? No disrespect at all to teachers I think they are great and massively under-valued they are thrown into the deep end here and end up pushing some pre-made, generic agenda as opposed to offering good advice to individual kids.

Let's not forget the vast majority of 17-18yr olds dont have a clue about this stuff and just want to get pissed.

Arbboy's due diligence idea is a good one, this was over 10 yrs ago so IDK what it's like now but if that was built into the uni-application process that sounds like it would be a good tool.

Most importantly though... HI LONGY !!! 

Hi Dave, hope you are well!

https://www.ft.com/content/dac3a3b2-4ad7-11e7-919a-1e14ce4af89b

Financial times analysis of the election, people in poor health and leavers swung to the Tories. People with degrees even the over 50's  swung Labour.

Boris won 2 London mayoral elections, he is certainly a capable campaigner but not sure he has enough support within his own party to get to be leader. I think Amber Rudd based on who shone in this election would be a decent choice but she voted remain, so probably her screwed. Likely to be David Davis IMO, as uninspiring as that is.