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16  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Darts Betting and discussion on: May 25, 2019, 12:35:07 AM
World Cup

I really like this tournament, and I'm really excited for this one, feels way more open than previous years. Think we MIGHT see some wacky results, the short formats always lend themselves to some unpredictable results!! The format really lends itself to teams with composed players in them and the format being doubles only in rnd1 we are DEFO going to see an upset.

Running through the betting, I see a lot of potential banana skins for the seeds for this tournament.

England - Top seeds for this and it does seem like the most likely winners on paper, however I just can't bring myself to fancy them actually winning it, Rob Cross has been superb on TV so far this year and thoroughly under-whelming on the floor. Micheal Smith been pretty inconsistent all year, if the two of them turn up they'll be too much for anyone bar scotland and wales to handle and should blast through, I can see them being put in a venreable spot at least once or twice on the way through this tournament. They have an extremely lose-able game in round 1 vs the Philippines. Noel Malicdem and Laurence Ilagan are both very dangerous players who have performed well on big TV stages before, they have also played pairs games in sot-tip with each other in asia, a race to 9 match vs two players who have it in them to be inconsistent, I wouldn't wanna be betting them for that game at on. The format round 2+ will suit these two better but they gonna run into two more tricky players in round 2 in Willie O'Connor and Steve Lennon.  For me, not close to a bet even at top price 3/1.

Netherlands Seeded 4th.  I saw an article which asked if MVG could win this tournament on his own, I think that's extremely unfair on Jermaine Wattimena who is capable of giving anyone a proper game if he plays well, he is unfortunately very inconsistent, and being alongside MVG will either get him going or over-whelm him. You know what you're gonna get from MVG, so Wattimena's performance is going to be paramount, if he plays really well then the dutch will very likely win the tournament, they do have a bit of a nasty draw though. Spain in the doubles is certainly losable, Poland are surefire dark horses for this in round 2, Australia with a resurgent Whitlock in round 3, England in the Semis. 11/4 a tempter when the MVG factor is there, think Jermaine Wattimena is just going to be too weak vs the big dogs if they have to play an in form England/Scotland/Wales.

Scotland Seeded 2nd here, a real head-scratcher... The big question for the Scots is going to be GARY'S BACK barely played a competitive game since being turned over by MVG in the world semis (8 games, won 3, averaged ~95, he was filled in 6-0 by PW last time he played) however it's just a matter of fitness for Gary, he's never going to lack confidence or be rusty on the big stage. Peter Wright has been pretty poor this year really however he does have a knack of grafting results out and so much experience, the changing darts nonsense keeps popping back up and you cant massively trust his mental game. They have a pretty safe passage to the 1/4s and if Gary is fit then I would probably make them favourites, if Gary struggles then I cant see how they get past the Welsh or an in form England. Best price 7/2 with perhaps the best draw, I would just be so concerned about Gary's fitness, he has barely played and that despite Gary's lowish volume in general is not a good sign and therefore I'd be steering clear.

Wales Seeded 3rd and I would say serious contenders for this one, I would say over the course of this year these two are probs the most consistent team between them, they are mates and to me feel like the strongest team in this competition, Gerwyn Price has turned himself into a legit rockstar and Johny Clayton is making a big charge for the top 10. I think they're almost guaranteed to play well and have the firey spirit that defo suits team play, but unfortunately for the Welsh lads they seem to have gotten themselves the worst draw going.  Singapore filled Scotland in round 1 two years ago and with Paul Lim at the helm they are guarenteed to be a tough game, Japan are another dark horse with Siego Asada and Haruki Muramatsu who have both played well on TV before (you'll remember Siego from the "I did it for my country" shenangians with Wadey at the worlds) he's beaten lots of top pros, and again these two are friends who will be comfortable playing together. Northern Ireland in the quarters, scotland (probs) in the semi's its a tough route for these two but I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them winAt best price 7/1 I would fancy this team.

Northern Ireland #6 seeds, of course all about Daryl Gurney who's turned himself into a real warrior these days, alongside Brendon Dolan who himself has been playing pretty well for the past year without and real moves, he'll benefit massively from playing alongside DG who's scoring power can match anyones on it's day, Dolan's always been a real steady doubler and this partnership should work well. Reasonably nice path into the 1/4s for a probable showdown with the Welsh, which will be an enormous test for them, if scotland dont turn up for the semi's I wouldn't be overly shocked if they trundle themselves into the final, most likely for the N.I lads though is a 1/4 final send off from Price and Clayton, they just have too much to over-come and when they're gonna need the extra firepower Brendon Dolan just probably isn't going to find it. 14/1 just tooooo skinny.

Australia The 5th seeds here, not a massively positive outlook for this Ozzies here, Whitlock, having dropped off a bit towards the back end of last year has put a few good performances together later and looks to be back playing much better. What he really needs is a solid playing partner and a good draw and unfortunately he has neither. Naughty little opener vs the Fins round 1, fairly easy 2nd round vs Canada or Italy then likely Netherlands, then England before they get to the final, Kyle Anderson has just been way out of for lately, having troubles with his glasses, darts, changed his throw. Dont fancy them at all, wouldn't be surprised if the Finnish turned them over and whereas in short formats they could be a proper match for anyone, not going to be an easy game for the Netherlands, I just cant see them putting up any challenge for this and even at 22/1, not for me.

Belguim Ranked 7th, on paper Kim and Dimi shouldn't pose much threats in this, neither of them have had any real form this year and Dimitri has looked really hit and miss, with a string of 80 averages thrown in. However...they are good friends, lots of respect there, played great last year together and both absolutely love TV darts and have a habbit of bringing it for big games, tricky draw and a bit of a lack of form but at 25/1 I could be tempted in there....

Austria Seeded 8th, as good as mensur is he's going to get no help whatsover from Zoran in this and I think they are going to need help form the draw, mensur alone should get them into the 1/4s but whoever they find from this point I cant see them beating, even at 33/1 wouldn't be for me.

Outside of the seeded teams,

Poland - 66/1 - Krystof Ratajski & Tytus Kanik two players massively on the up and up, both full of confidence, they have a pretty easy opener and then a really testing 2nd round vs Netherlands, but that is a game I can just really see them winning, Ratajski is just so solid and a proven winner on the tour now, these two should make a great team. I think they're a fantastic easy way poke and unless something drastic happens I think I'll be betting them vs Holland in the second round.

Germany 33/1 - In what is undoubtedly the weakest quarter of the draw, and with big question marks over scotland, some fairly serious question marks over Belguim, looking for a serious contender for this quarter there is not really anyone else to look at bar the germans. Good friends, played together many times, both absolutely love playing for German crowds and both capable of firing in big averages.

Philippines -250/1 - As mentioned earlier, two extremely dangerous players who've performed well on TV before, they have a horrible opener vs England but after that it's not looking too bad for these two, Ireland will put up a fight but they're not top tier, Austria are half a team, Australia are out of form, we have doubts of Netherlands...as a 250/1 EW nod they look great to me, I can see the waves parting for them and they might just cause some upsets!

New Zealand 300/1 - Cody Harris is vastly improving and Haupai Puha put in a really good display in the world series events, I think they're going to find themselves falling short too often to mount a challenge for this but I wouldn't be hating taking them at a big price vs N.I

Japan - 125/1 - As I said, really like this pair and I could see them causing some upsets, the draw for them is really tough though so I wouldn't be betting them at 125/1, the sprinkling of 200/1 though could really tempt me EW/


For me, I would be looking at;

Medium Bet Wales 7/1 WIN
Small Bet Germany 33/1 WIN
Medium Bet Poland 66/1 EW
Small Bet Philippines 250/1 EW

The first round will provide a lot of options to oppose big favourites, with the unpredictable format I cant see wanting to be on any team at 1/5 there.

Patriotically though, I guess we gotta cheer for England   win or lose
17  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Darts Betting and discussion on: May 24, 2019, 10:16:56 PM
Premier league was really exciting for the group stages, one of the most open/exciting I can remember and the fact the top spot wasn't even decided till the last night was cool as well. The final sort of petered out into zzzzzzzz though Rob Cross has a real weakness I think for multi-game days these days, hence why he seems incapable of consistently performing on the euro tour. His dominance over this tournament is pretty indicative of ultimately how hard he dominates the game overall. The only real weak spot you could say is he only currently holds 2x majors (worlds and grand prix) but then he has won 30 major titles in 7 years and is besrt part of a million quid clear in the rankings, so....
18  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Darts Betting and discussion on: May 09, 2019, 09:52:13 PM
Wonder where Gary is, and what he's doing with his back.... Big rankings chance opening up for him here, Peter Wrights slump down the rankings continues and he has another £100k to lose between now and the matchplay, Gurney has £150k to defend between now and the grand prix, Cross nealry £500k to defend between now and the worlds, Smith out of form, Price has slipped off a bit and is a long way back, there's really no opposition to Gary rolling into world #2 for end of the year unless of course he doesn't play!! Hope to see him back asap, the World Cup would be good to see, short games and fairly easy format with decent prize money, if he doesn't turn up to that then we've probs got to assume the worst for Gary....
19  Poker Forums / Live Tournament Staking / Re: WSOP Main Event, selling at 1.15 on: May 07, 2019, 01:43:28 PM
bang me down ronnnnnnie
20  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Nadal / Woods / Neither ? on: April 14, 2019, 08:02:20 PM
Both!

Cream always rises doesn't it
21  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Darts Betting and discussion on: April 01, 2019, 09:02:27 PM
Will only get into the world cup if he is the second ranked Dutch player on the OOM before the WC starts.  Pretty sure its automatically the two highest ranked playerss at the time who play for the country.  Not sure where Barney will sit that way by the WC.

Yeh, although there has been occasions in the past where one of the players has declined to play for whatever reasons. Currently would be Jermaine Wattimena but he and Barney are by all accounts very close and JW has rep for being a nice bloke wouldn't be shocked if he passes it over so Barny have have a farewell World Cup. I assume any deal would privately involved JW getting all RVB's money from the event, JW when you're gridlocked in the ruthless 28-16 area cant really afford to pass up a poke at the GSOD with all the ranking money up for grabs there, as well as the not so insignificant matter of 30 bags each if you win!
22  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Darts Betting and discussion on: April 01, 2019, 11:55:51 AM
Yeh i was up for betting 2/1 during his retirement, think he's odds on if he tries, it's a lot more of an ask for him to get to the grand prix or matchplay, I think he's gonna need a world cup entrance to get in the grand slam. If he grinds the PC's he doesn't even need that much, £6k the other day a big help, £15k from the PCs and £12k from the ETs and he sails into players & euros and thus into the worlds, he could prbs sack the ET's off and push it through on the PC circuit but stage darts on the continent should really be right up Barney's alley.

Think un-retired he's a slam dunk at even money to be there.  I think it'll be impossible for Barry to Wild Card him though, he's said like 300 times when asked about a Power WC that darts is a "meritocracy" and he'd "never allow someone who's earnt a place to lose it to a reputation - you get what you earn in PDC darts..." would be outrageous hypocrisy to go back on that and Barney shouldn't really accept either as it's a bit pathetic.
23  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Darts Betting and discussion on: March 29, 2019, 11:00:11 AM
Fair play Barney - announce the retirement coming at the Worlds at the end of the year (even though anyone with a clue knows you're million to make it), collect the sympathy PL invitation cash, then knock it on the head.

One of my favourite ever sportsmen - Chapeau!

He probably needs about £25k on the pro tour over the rest of the year to qualify, given he'd snuck back into top 32 after pro tour final I reckon he'd have made the worlds.
24  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Darts Betting and discussion on: March 29, 2019, 01:35:05 AM
I'd bet Barney to be in the worlds at 2/1.

Interestingly, if Phil still had his card he'd be world #11 !
25  Poker Forums / Diaries and Blogs / Re: lil dave's lil life on: March 29, 2019, 12:46:18 AM
So decided to bomb out to Rio for the PP millions thingymajiggy, haven't played a lot of poker, or poker tournaments in the past years but fancied this one, and had a business contact who lives in Rio I was anxious to meet in person so felt great about the trip, Rio been somewhere I always fancied going.

Had an absolutely amazing time, really really good. Didn't do too much poker, had a few bullets in the $1k "Rio Open" finished 7 or 8 off the money, on reflection my bust out hand was probably a little bit out of line but heh man's gotta follow his instincts in the poker tournaments Smiley played the $10k and busted very quickly into day 2, I did a Hellmuth and tried to induce someone to lose their head against me, which I think they did (I'm not really to know lol) and get sent to the beach Cheesy I actually enjoyed playing, Brazil poker player seem to have rep for just being terrible but I didn't think they were terrible at all, just a little prone to wrecklessness perhaps but they certainly don't make it easy on you!!! I liked the overall pace of play too, fast game, competitive game, friendly game - just how it should be.

One thing I will say though, which I think is utterly unbearable, is the stare-downs, i mean just absolutely WHAT THE FUCK are those about, didn't see any of it in the $1k (not sure if it's a stakes thing?) but then in the $10k I found a few people doing this ridiculous stare-down stuff every hand, I've seen it a bit on TV didn't realise loads of people did it, I had one guy (one of Pad's horses) giving me this creepy stare-down every hand, I actually felt quite embarrassed for him, what on earth is he hoping to see, my throat starts gulping when I have a good hand? I played a LOT of live poker games over the years, I'm not about to start cracking under some kid starring me down, but if I was a less experienced player I might find it very intimidating and surely that's just terrible for the game. Seems to me the chances of these guys actually knowing a) what they are looking for, or b) being able to interpret it in any productive way whatsoever should they find it is incredibley slim and it's basically just wasting everyone's time and possibly irratating very casual players. Who want to come play poker and get starred down, if you get starred at for 2 minutes then called and lose you'll probably feel like a real mug and truth is it's just pot luck that the guy has picked right.

"live tells" are not people's eyes twitching or leg shaking, I think a few poker "pros" need to grow up a bit. Assume it's not a strategy Pads is inviting his players to use!

Anyway I didn't really care people can stare all they like at me, I thought the tournament was good fun and would play again, didn't cash but felt like I played competitively, sometimes feel really out of my depth in tournaments and couldn't have imagined playing 1 every yr or so will have helped much, guess the fact that busting was just going to = going to the beach or pool and drink cocktails helped.

There was however a final table performance from the camp, and that came from Laura (!) my fiance, who having never played poker before this week, to the point where she didn't know what the big blind was etc, watched some youtube videos, played a few micro stakes tourneys on party to practice and entered the Ladies event at Rio ($200 buyin) and amazingly came 6th (out of 22) with 4 getting paid, she got unlucky too, losing with KK vs 55 to bust Sad was actually really proud and even turned down drinking to stay and rail!!!

 Click to see full-size image.


(with the cap!)

She wasn't really too sure what to do post-flop (folded a few times when she could have checked etc) but played really disciplined/patient game preflop and just goes to show solid patient poker will always give you a chance! Well done Laura - 6th best Lady player in Rio!!!

Had tons of fun messing about, drinking, went to the Redeemer Jesus (very big) Trigg took us to the races where he had incredibly (INCREDIBLE) managed to get us some hot info on the Rio racetrack - the Rio Tote takes a healthy 40% juice but max bet is £50, so I persuaded (took a lot of persuading...) a friend of mine to cross-book us on the tickets and naturally fighting a 40% tote we did our bollocks, (took some carefully selected peruvian football to repair the damage  ) the race-track itself was delightful though one of the most pleasant tracks I've ever been too. It had a bar right on the finish line, water features, even a kids club so you can take the kids and go punting!! Shame it was basically empty, guess the 40% juice and gambley nature of Brazilians has killed off the horse punters Sad   Outside of a bit of work and a bit of poker I just chilled out with Laura and had a great time catching up with the DTD/PP guys and the lineup of characters (middy, ludo, firaldo, flushy, etc) was pretty stellar. Had an extremely positive experience of party poker live.

South American jolly's aside (which was much needed after 6 weeks in thailand!) the year has been going very pleasantly so far, business in good shape, just about to move to a new house in Swiss Cottage (solid upgrade form Bermondsey) we are actually starting to plan some sort of wedding (heading to south of france in a couple of weeks to check out some venues) got a couple of weddings over the summer (Sweden and Barcelona) got a couple of stag do's over the summer (Vegas!) already got half an eye on ext years winter escape, enjoying the golf - summer coming so i'm thinking there'll be no shortage of people to play hoping to maybe get out for a game and a lesson every week!  Golf already turning into a massive dust, ad for some reason it makes me want to be insanely spewy, if someone told me there was a iten you could buy for £x that will add 5% to my golf ability I'd probably scare myself at how high that X could go until I dont snap it off Cheesy

Move House/Golf/Master/Game of Thrones/Plan Wedding/Work

Nice quiet April ahead.
26  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: Darts Betting and discussion on: March 28, 2019, 09:56:14 PM
Poor Barney.

27  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: FOBT's cut to £2 maximum stake on: March 28, 2019, 01:02:40 PM
The big bookies are defo in some bother, imo. For years the strat has been not to employ proper traders and just stick someone in on a junior salary to sit there with a checklist of what they dont wanna see and ban anyone who touches the list, the guys who's job is it to primarily stop people who are making winning bets obviously will be quite nitty as they'll never get pulled in monday and asked, "why you ban this guy" but they'll defo get the "WTF how did you let this guy bet" chat, also when you add in the cost of processing money there's a lot of small losing punters the firms dont even want. It's probably been a prudent strategy over the years as top traders are expensive given they will always earn more punting themselves or working with the syndicates and that money could get pushed into the every present PR/Marketing war that rages between the big guns, hard to ever not make money running a huge bookie like this, and let the cash-cow of the retail element (FOBTS) pay all the bonuses.

Now the FOBT business is hit and the AML restrictions make it all the more difficult to actually attract the right punters, they probs need to re-asses the business model, this is me shooting from the hip but i seriously wonder if huge, now completely corporate businesses are even capable of the changes needed, might be they're actually just not good enough and maybe we'll see one of the big guns fade away at some point. Lads/Coral under the GVC umbrella could just get binned off if they can't turn the retail side round, betfred have the worst online software and no partnership, who knows, 10 years ago you'd have laughed anyone out of the room who said Billy Hills might go out of business. I'm not saying starting to take punters on properly is absolutely what they should be doing but I think they need to do something different.

I never been massively aggravated by bookies restricting people, just all part of the game, I wanna make bets, they don't wanna take my bets, like a sporting contest, they certainly aren't obligated to take my business just as a carpet fitter would be perfectly entitled to turn to me and say "Im not fitting your carpets because I don't like your face"

Who would have thought 10 years ago lolbrokes and jokals would have to merge to even remotely stay relevant and bf would have a sporttsbook and need to merge with paddy power to remotely stay relevant to Denise.  Skybet would be 'Britains biggest bookmaker.  Stan James 'the original in running firm' doesn't even exist anymore.  Hills and Bald have just stood still and ten years on from 2009 online poker is so irrelevant to any decision any gaming company makes it wouldn't have been beleived in 2009.

I wouldn't like to have had a market leading business with Denise and Co right up my arse about to swallow me up.

They haven't helped themselves though.  Unsurprising how the FOBT's were the huge cash cow but the three biggest firms in the uk now (apart from bf's small number of paddy shops) have zero exposure to fobts at all for a decade.  The arrogance and laziness fobt's caused in the firms that had them has ultimately killed them all off as serious players in the market place.  The key years for online growth and market share hoovering was the same years the fobt's were having it off.  Ultimately the FOBT firms have killed the goose that laid the golden egg by taking the easy money short term but losing out massively long term in market share in the online game where in 2020 that is all that matters.

agree Arb. Very well said, time for a 'proper bookie' to emerge perhaps, problem is starting today utterly suffocated by AML/RG/KYC means it's very difficult.
28  Community Forums / Betting Tips and Sport Discussion / Re: FOBT's cut to £2 maximum stake on: March 27, 2019, 12:10:32 PM
The big bookies are defo in some bother, imo. For years the strat has been not to employ proper traders and just stick someone in on a junior salary to sit there with a checklist of what they dont wanna see and ban anyone who touches the list, the guys who's job is it to primarily stop people who are making winning bets obviously will be quite nitty as they'll never get pulled in monday and asked, "why you ban this guy" but they'll defo get the "WTF how did you let this guy bet" chat, also when you add in the cost of processing money there's a lot of small losing punters the firms dont even want. It's probably been a prudent strategy over the years as top traders are expensive given they will always earn more punting themselves or working with the syndicates and that money could get pushed into the every present PR/Marketing war that rages between the big guns, hard to ever not make money running a huge bookie like this, and let the cash-cow of the retail element (FOBTS) pay all the bonuses.

Now the FOBT business is hit and the AML restrictions make it all the more difficult to actually attract the right punters, they probs need to re-asses the business model, this is me shooting from the hip but i seriously wonder if huge, now completely corporate businesses are even capable of the changes needed, might be they're actually just not good enough and maybe we'll see one of the big guns fade away at some point. Lads/Coral under the GVC umbrella could just get binned off if they can't turn the retail side round, betfred have the worst online software and no partnership, who knows, 10 years ago you'd have laughed anyone out of the room who said Billy Hills might go out of business. I'm not saying starting to take punters on properly is absolutely what they should be doing but I think they need to do something different.

I never been massively aggravated by bookies restricting people, just all part of the game, I wanna make bets, they don't wanna take my bets, like a sporting contest, they certainly aren't obligated to take my business just as a carpet fitter would be perfectly entitled to turn to me and say "Im not fitting your carpets because I don't like your face"
29  Poker Forums / Diaries and Blogs / Re: lil dave's lil life on: March 27, 2019, 11:09:40 AM
it's heartwarming that no one is considering that the distance to the water could have been misjudged  

looked a lot further than 260 to me but my friend is a pretty accurate guy and we'll take him at his word Smiley
30  Poker Forums / Diaries and Blogs / Re: lil dave's lil life on: March 27, 2019, 11:00:43 AM
cant imagine many people been loving driving into the water as much as that in the history of golf!



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