time to reply- I thought the majority would tell me to beat him into the pot- thats why I didnt want to state what I done as I was looking for constructive criticism and an objective viewpoint- (as opposed to the mumbles of "mug" etc I heard last night at the table)
Anyway I decided to fold and wait for a better situation to arise, my reasoning behind this is below:-
A) I had another 4 players behind me still to act- 2 of the large stacks were aggressive and good players- I honestly think if either of them had any pair 8's or above then they would call with getting 2-1 their money and chance to knock out 2 players and set them up for winning the whole thing
B) The money was a factor- I simply didnt want to walk away with only £35 after playing so long (I know this is a very bad reason and probably goes against most principles in poker) but I was confident I could get down to 3 handed- which was only £85 btw, but then I knew if I could get to 3 handed it really was anybodys game- the reason I thought I could make it to 3 handed was this guy was making quite a lot of plays and I felt one of the big stacks would knock him out sooner or later and there were 2 short stacks I felt would be knocked out soon
C) Other players at the table stated he must have an ace so its an instacall-I didnt think so- I felt that this player was too cunning to simply see one ace and go all in-he is a decent player normally regardless of last nights play and he knows any big ace would call usually- it seemed to me he wanted to gamble and would more than likely have 2 live cards- at that point I thought this would mean a 60/40 shot- I have checked cardplayer and it is actually 65/35- I just didnt want to put my tournament life on the line with this sort of gamble-albeit in my favour where (I thought) I would win 6 times out of 10
I have since done quite a few simulations on cardplayer and I realise I may have been wrong to fold:
Although I didint think he had an ace-
against any ace or jack with a lower kicker I am 70/20 with a 10% split
against 2 random cards(not ace or jack) I am between 60/40 and 68/32
against any pocket pair below jacks I am 48/52
so everything points to me calling- incidentally I was correct about him making the play with no ace- I was just unfortunate that the one card that he did see before deciding to go all in was in fact a
with even more unfortune his kicker was
so I would have been 77/21 favourite with a 2% split- could have easily been
and would have been 68/32 which is still an instant call