Vagueness and the Aftermath - A sporadic diary

[The_nun]

I've just realised that I can travel through time, but only in one direction and at an ever increasing velocity.

I've just realised how much I have missed being able to post....and how much I have missed you. x

[RED-DOG]

I've just realised that I can travel through time, but only in one direction and at an ever increasing velocity.

I've just realised how much I have missed being able to post....and how much I have missed you. x

Glad to have you back Maureen, I've missed you too. XX

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I love autobiographies and it's that time of year. Everyone who is anyone and several people who are no one jump on the band wagon.

I like to check them out down the supermarket then download a sample of the ones I fancy on kindle.

If I like the sample I might even be tempted to buy a copy, especially if the price is good. (Store price around £10/15,, kindle price often much cheaper)

Which of these would you give a second look and which would you use to light the fire?

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

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I know you shouldn't laugh at your own jokes but this one tickled me.

My son-in-law Harry always seems to be going somewhere. He's always out or just about to leave so I've christened him Harry Vederchi.

It's official, I'm hilarious.

[RED-DOG]

I'm a flawed Jenius.

[RED-DOG]

A bloke on the telly was talking about a woman who had twins, one just before midnight on Dec 31 and the othe just after, on Jan 1, which meant that the twins were born in different years.

Fair enough, but then he went on to say that the odds of twins having different birthdays were two million to one and the odds of different years were far greater.

Surely we can call bullshit on the two milly to one figure?

[Doobs]

A bloke on the telly was talking about a woman who had twins, one just before midnight on Dec 31 and the othe just after, on Jan 1, which meant that the twins were born in different years.

Fair enough, but then he went on to say that the odds of twins having different birthdays were two million to one and the odds of different years were far greater.

Surely we can call bullshit on the two milly to one figure?

confirmed.   The below says that the average time distance is 21 minuted between birth of twins.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/6700896/

24 hours/20 minutes is 72, so if vaginal birth is about 1 in 70 of arriving on different dates?  Can't even be arsed with using a calculator as it is clearly way out.

You might be able to knock off a bit for caesareans?  But there is a long way between 1 in 70 and 1 in 2 million.   

You can just do 70x365 for the different year odds. 

[RED-DOG]

A bloke on the telly was talking about a woman who had twins, one just before midnight on Dec 31 and the othe just after, on Jan 1, which meant that the twins were born in different years.

Fair enough, but then he went on to say that the odds of twins having different birthdays were two million to one and the odds of different years were far greater.

Surely we can call bullshit on the two milly to one figure?

confirmed.   The below says that the average time distance is 21 minuted between birth of twins.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/6700896/

24 hours/20 minutes is 72, so if vaginal birth is about 1 in 70 of arriving on different dates?  Can't even be arsed with using a calculator as it is clearly way out.

You might be able to knock off a bit for caesareans?  But there is a long way between 1 in 70 and 1 in 2 million.   

You can just do 70x365 for the different year odds. 

Thanks Doobs. He obviously got something around his neck.

[RED-DOG]

A bloke on the telly was talking about a woman who had twins, one just before midnight on Dec 31 and the othe just after, on Jan 1, which meant that the twins were born in different years.

Fair enough, but then he went on to say that the odds of twins having different birthdays were two million to one and the odds of different years were far greater.

Surely we can call bullshit on the two milly to one figure?

confirmed.   The below says that the average time distance is 21 minuted between birth of twins.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/6700896/

24 hours/20 minutes is 72, so if vaginal birth is about 1 in 70 of arriving on different dates?  Can't even be arsed with using a calculator as it is clearly way out.

You might be able to knock off a bit for caesareans?  But there is a long way between 1 in 70 and 1 in 2 million.   

You can just do 70x365 for the different year odds. 

Thanks Doobs. He obviously got something around his neck.

Would it make sense if he meant one in two million births rather than one in two million twin births?

[RED-DOG]

The average quartz watch is accurate to +/-1 second per day. Just how accurate is that when expressed as a percentage?

The answer, if correct, blew me away. Unfortunately I'm not clever enough to check it.


EDIT: I am clever enough to check my watch, just not clever enough to do the maths.

[Doobs]

A bloke on the telly was talking about a woman who had twins, one just before midnight on Dec 31 and the othe just after, on Jan 1, which meant that the twins were born in different years.

Fair enough, but then he went on to say that the odds of twins having different birthdays were two million to one and the odds of different years were far greater.

Surely we can call bullshit on the two milly to one figure?

confirmed.   The below says that the average time distance is 21 minuted between birth of twins.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/6700896/

24 hours/20 minutes is 72, so if vaginal birth is about 1 in 70 of arriving on different dates?  Can't even be arsed with using a calculator as it is clearly way out.

You might be able to knock off a bit for caesareans?  But there is a long way between 1 in 70 and 1 in 2 million.   

You can just do 70x365 for the different year odds. 

Thanks Doobs. He obviously got something around his neck.

Would it make sense if he meant one in two million births rather than one in two million twin births?

Nah, he is clearly wrong.  There are a lot of twins in both mine and my wife's familes (we got away with it), but 1/42 children are twins.
  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56365422

So 1/84 births are twin births, and 70 x 84 is still nowhere near 1 in 2 million.  Don't think we give the benefit of the doubt here.

Switching a bit, some Government minister has just been gotcha'd on the price of milk.  No surprise there, but what has surprised me is some twitter thread where everyone is saying we don't know the price of milk.

Up until today, I just assumed that most people check the price of stuff they put in their basket/trolley and it was perfectly reasonable for me to get grumpy with the kids for not knowing the answer to "how much is it?" when they ask for something.   Gawd knows why they still haven't pre-prepared the answer to this question when I am so predictable on this?

I'd be pretty confident of knowing the rough price of everything I have bought recently.  So am I weird, or are they weird?

[RED-DOG]

A bloke on the telly was talking about a woman who had twins, one just before midnight on Dec 31 and the othe just after, on Jan 1, which meant that the twins were born in different years.

Fair enough, but then he went on to say that the odds of twins having different birthdays were two million to one and the odds of different years were far greater.

Surely we can call bullshit on the two milly to one figure?

confirmed.   The below says that the average time distance is 21 minuted between birth of twins.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/6700896/

24 hours/20 minutes is 72, so if vaginal birth is about 1 in 70 of arriving on different dates?  Can't even be arsed with using a calculator as it is clearly way out.

You might be able to knock off a bit for caesareans?  But there is a long way between 1 in 70 and 1 in 2 million.   

You can just do 70x365 for the different year odds. 

Thanks Doobs. He obviously got something around his neck.

Would it make sense if he meant one in two million births rather than one in two million twin births?

Nah, he is clearly wrong.  There are a lot of twins in both mine and my wife's familes (we got away with it), but 1/42 children are twins.
  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56365422

So 1/84 births are twin births, and 70 x 84 is still nowhere near 1 in 2 million.  Don't think we give the benefit of the doubt here.

Switching a bit, some Government minister has just been gotcha'd on the price of milk.  No surprise there, but what has surprised me is some twitter thread where everyone is saying we don't know the price of milk.

Up until today, I just assumed that most people check the price of stuff they put in their basket/trolley and it was perfectly reasonable for me to get grumpy with the kids for not knowing the answer to "how much is it?" when they ask for something.   Gawd knows why they still haven't pre-prepared the answer to this question when I am so predictable on this?

I'd be pretty confident of knowing the rough price of everything I have bought recently.  So am I weird, or are they weird?

You're not weird in my book. I never buy anything without checking the price and, more often than not, comparing it with the price that I know the same item costs elsewhere.

Our local convenience store is a Co op. I don't use it very often because it's (understandably) expensive compared to Aldi or Lidl but when I do use it it takes me ages because their method of displaying prices is abysmal. The goods are on the shelf and you have to find the corresponding price-tag amongst a bunch of others on a rail below.
It wouldn't be too bad if you didn't have to crack the description code first, "BJ RR ICM 300g £.350 BJ SC ICM £4.50." 

I almost always have to find an assistant help me and they usually have just as much difficulty as I do.

The point is, I'm in the convenience store so I'm prepared to pay the premium price, but I refuse to pay it without knowing what it is first.

I'm a fool really. The other day I paid £72 to fill the car with diesel, £22 for a lunchtime meal for me & Mrs Red, and  £52 for a bag of dog food, then I spent 20 minutes dithering over a second hand PS3 game for £3.

I think I would be the same even if I were a millionaire.

If I see a penny lying in the street I have to pick it up, even though I know it's not worth the effort. I can't help it.

I grew up in a time when there were 240 pennies in a pound and yet I so rarely got my hands on one. If I were to pass a penny in the street today that little boy would never forgive me.

[Doobs]

A bloke on the telly was talking about a woman who had twins, one just before midnight on Dec 31 and the othe just after, on Jan 1, which meant that the twins were born in different years.

Fair enough, but then he went on to say that the odds of twins having different birthdays were two million to one and the odds of different years were far greater.

Surely we can call bullshit on the two milly to one figure?

confirmed.   The below says that the average time distance is 21 minuted between birth of twins.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/6700896/

24 hours/20 minutes is 72, so if vaginal birth is about 1 in 70 of arriving on different dates?  Can't even be arsed with using a calculator as it is clearly way out.

You might be able to knock off a bit for caesareans?  But there is a long way between 1 in 70 and 1 in 2 million.   

You can just do 70x365 for the different year odds. 

Thanks Doobs. He obviously got something around his neck.

Would it make sense if he meant one in two million births rather than one in two million twin births?

Nah, he is clearly wrong.  There are a lot of twins in both mine and my wife's familes (we got away with it), but 1/42 children are twins.
  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56365422

So 1/84 births are twin births, and 70 x 84 is still nowhere near 1 in 2 million.  Don't think we give the benefit of the doubt here.

Switching a bit, some Government minister has just been gotcha'd on the price of milk.  No surprise there, but what has surprised me is some twitter thread where everyone is saying we don't know the price of milk.

Up until today, I just assumed that most people check the price of stuff they put in their basket/trolley and it was perfectly reasonable for me to get grumpy with the kids for not knowing the answer to "how much is it?" when they ask for something.   Gawd knows why they still haven't pre-prepared the answer to this question when I am so predictable on this?

I'd be pretty confident of knowing the rough price of everything I have bought recently.  So am I weird, or are they weird?

You're not weird in my book. I never buy anything without checking the price and, more often than not, comparing it with the price that I know the same item costs elsewhere.

Our local convenience store is a Co op. I don't use it very often because it's (understandably) expensive compared to Aldi or Lidl but when I do use it it takes me ages because their method of displaying prices is abysmal. The goods are on the shelf and you have to find the corresponding price-tag amongst a bunch of others on a rail below.
It wouldn't be too bad if you didn't have to crack the description code first, "BJ RR ICM 300g £.350 BJ SC ICM £4.50." 

I almost always have to find an assistant help me and they usually have just as much difficulty as I do.

The point is, I'm in the convenience store so I'm prepared to pay the premium price, but I refuse to pay it without knowing what it is first.

I'm a fool really. The other day I paid £72 to fill the car with diesel, £22 for a lunchtime meal for me & Mrs Red, and  £52 for a bag of dog food, then I spent 20 minutes dithering over a second hand PS3 game for £3.

I think I would be the same even if I were a millionaire.

If I see a penny lying in the street I have to pick it up, even though I know it's not worth the effort. I can't help it.

I grew up in a time when there were 240 pennies in a pound and yet I so rarely got my hands on one. If I were to pass a penny in the street today that little boy would never forgive me.

Milk isn't a great example, as there aren't many substitutions, but I always check the prices of the alternatives for stuff like bread.  I know what the kids like, but if Hovis is half price they are getting that.  Some stuff, like tomatoes, I buy on smell rather than price, and I definitely avoid some stuff.  So I have moved on a bit since I was massively skint.  But even then, I still know the price I paid.   If ot costs me an extra 50p to be fussy, I just want to know that.

[RED-DOG]

The average quartz watch is accurate to +/-1 second per day. Just how accurate is that when expressed as a percentage?

The answer, if correct, blew me away. Unfortunately I'm not clever enough to check it.


EDIT: I am clever enough to check my watch, just not clever enough to do the maths.

BTW- =/-1 second per day is 99.998% accuracy. (Apparently)

[RED-DOG]

Here's an amazing fact.

The 10th President of the USA was born in 1790. His grandson is still alive.