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Author Topic: Vagueness and the Aftermath - A sporadic diary  (Read 3587748 times)
StuartHopkin
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« Reply #34125 on: January 07, 2022, 02:42:51 PM »

I love autobiographies and it's that time of year. Everyone who is anyone and several people who are no one jump on the band wagon.

I like to check them out down the supermarket then download a sample of the ones I fancy on kindle.

If I like the sample I might even be tempted to buy a copy, especially if the price is good. (Store price around £10/15,, kindle price often much cheaper)

Which of these would you give a second look and which would you use to light the fire?


 Click to see full-size image.




 Click to see full-size image.




Hi Red

Happy New Year

The only one that would interest me out of all of those is Dave Grohl - Storyteller, it is on my to read list.
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« Reply #34126 on: January 07, 2022, 03:08:40 PM »

I love autobiographies and it's that time of year. Everyone who is anyone and several people who are no one jump on the band wagon.

I like to check them out down the supermarket then download a sample of the ones I fancy on kindle.

If I like the sample I might even be tempted to buy a copy, especially if the price is good. (Store price around £10/15,, kindle price often much cheaper)

Which of these would you give a second look and which would you use to light the fire?


 Click to see full-size image.




 Click to see full-size image.




Hi Red

Happy New Year

The only one that would interest me out of all of those is Dave Grohl - Storyteller, it is on my to read list.


Happy new year Stu.

If you were forced to take two others with the book you want, (Like a Chinese library)  which would they be?

There are at least half a dozen that I will at least read a sample of.
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« Reply #34127 on: January 07, 2022, 04:25:08 PM »

Probably the Jimmy Carr one you highlighted and the Peaky Blinders one though it's not clear that is an auto biography.
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« Reply #34128 on: January 07, 2022, 05:01:15 PM »

A bloke on the telly was talking about a woman who had twins, one just before midnight on Dec 31 and the othe just after, on Jan 1, which meant that the twins were born in different years.

Fair enough, but then he went on to say that the odds of twins having different birthdays were two million to one and the odds of different years were far greater.

Surely we can call bullshit on the two milly to one figure?

confirmed.   The below says that the average time distance is 21 minuted between birth of twins.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/6700896/

24 hours/20 minutes is 72, so if vaginal birth is about 1 in 70 of arriving on different dates?  Can't even be arsed with using a calculator as it is clearly way out.

You might be able to knock off a bit for caesareans?  But there is a long way between 1 in 70 and 1 in 2 million.  

You can just do 70x365 for the different year odds.  



Thanks Doobs. He obviously got something around his neck.







Would it make sense if he meant one in two million births rather than one in two million twin births?

Nah, he is clearly wrong.  There are a lot of twins in both mine and my wife's familes (we got away with it), but 1/42 children are twins.
 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56365422

So 1/84 births are twin births, and 70 x 84 is still nowhere near 1 in 2 million.  Don't think we give the benefit of the doubt here.

Switching a bit, some Government minister has just been gotcha'd on the price of milk.  No surprise there, but what has surprised me is some twitter thread where everyone is saying we don't know the price of milk.

Up until today, I just assumed that most people check the price of stuff they put in their basket/trolley and it was perfectly reasonable for me to get grumpy with the kids for not knowing the answer to "how much is it?" when they ask for something.   Gawd knows why they still haven't pre-prepared the answer to this question when I am so predictable on this?

I'd be pretty confident of knowing the rough price of everything I have bought recently.  So am I weird, or are they weird?

Glad to read this. I'm not overly price conscious but I always know what I'm paying for something. Always go through a quick mental rationalisation which, given the nature of things I buy, and my reasonably OK financial situation (being old), rarely involves 'can I afford it?'. What a lucky privilege that is.

In supermarkets though I suddenly become very price conscious. I only go on saturday mornings and only shop for bits rather than the main shopping but will often pass on say a lump of cheese I fancy because its £3.00 and buy one I don't fancy as much for £2.75. I feel like it's an affliction and must be borne out of my upbringing in some way. Anyway, main point is I have to look at the price and make varying value judgments week by week on if I  'deserve' it.

My wife otoh never has a clue if I ask the question you ask.
« Last Edit: January 07, 2022, 05:05:00 PM by nirvana » Logged

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« Reply #34129 on: January 09, 2022, 01:00:08 PM »

Ahmaud Arbery murder trial. What a great result, and what a fabulous watch is you have 60/70 hours to spare.

Opening statements below.


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« Reply #34130 on: January 09, 2022, 01:56:48 PM »

Slightly different to the Rittenhouse trial - same country though apparently.
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« Reply #34131 on: January 09, 2022, 02:21:57 PM »

The average quartz watch is accurate to +/-1 second per day. Just how accurate is that when expressed as a percentage?

The answer, if correct, blew me away. Unfortunately I'm not clever enough to check it.


EDIT: I am clever enough to check my watch, just not clever enough to do the maths.



BTW- =/-1 second per day is 99.998% accuracy. (Apparently)

60 x 60 x 24 = 86400

100-(100x(1/86400)) = 99.9988

Story checks out
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« Reply #34132 on: January 09, 2022, 02:23:48 PM »

The average quartz watch is accurate to +/-1 second per day. Just how accurate is that when expressed as a percentage?

The answer, if correct, blew me away. Unfortunately I'm not clever enough to check it.


EDIT: I am clever enough to check my watch, just not clever enough to do the maths.



BTW- =/-1 second per day is 99.998% accuracy. (Apparently)

60 x 60 x 24 = 86400

100-(100x(1/86400)) = 99.9988

Story checks out



Incredible!
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« Reply #34133 on: January 09, 2022, 02:49:15 PM »

Here's an amazing fact.

The 10th President of the USA was born in 1790. His grandson is still alive.

That really is amazing.

When you account for life expectancy between 1790 and now it just doesn't seem possible. The odds must be in the hundreds of millions to one.

Let's guess that the grandson is doing really well and has just hit 102 so was born in 1920. That's plausible today although obviously unlikely.

That means the father and grandfather had to have their respective children at an average age of 65.

That makes it seem more plausible although just surviving to 65 was hard enough then, never mind having a kid. The wives must've been significantly younger to have successfully conceived and given birth back then. Quick Google check shows the current record for a women giving birth is just under 67. Oldest known father at time of birth was 92 so no problems there.

Presidential life expectancy would obviously be higher than average but still.....

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« Reply #34134 on: January 09, 2022, 04:52:55 PM »

Here's an amazing fact.

The 10th President of the USA was born in 1790. His grandson is still alive.

That really is amazing.

When you account for life expectancy between 1790 and now it just doesn't seem possible. The odds must be in the hundreds of millions to one.

Let's guess that the grandson is doing really well and has just hit 102 so was born in 1920. That's plausible today although obviously unlikely.

That means the father and grandfather had to have their respective children at an average age of 65.

That makes it seem more plausible although just surviving to 65 was hard enough then, never mind having a kid. The wives must've been significantly younger to have successfully conceived and given birth back then. Quick Google check shows the current record for a women giving birth is just under 67. Oldest known father at time of birth was 92 so no problems there.

Presidential life expectancy would obviously be higher than average but still.....



I had a look

His grandfather had his father when he was 63

His father had him when he was 75

And he is now in his 90s
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« Reply #34135 on: January 09, 2022, 05:08:50 PM »

Here's an amazing fact.

The 10th President of the USA was born in 1790. His grandson is still alive.

That really is amazing.

When you account for life expectancy between 1790 and now it just doesn't seem possible. The odds must be in the hundreds of millions to one.

Let's guess that the grandson is doing really well and has just hit 102 so was born in 1920. That's plausible today although obviously unlikely.

That means the father and grandfather had to have their respective children at an average age of 65.

That makes it seem more plausible although just surviving to 65 was hard enough then, never mind having a kid. The wives must've been significantly younger to have successfully conceived and given birth back then. Quick Google check shows the current record for a women giving birth is just under 67. Oldest known father at time of birth was 92 so no problems there.

Presidential life expectancy would obviously be higher than average but still.....



I had a look

His grandfather had his father when he was 63

His father had him when he was 75

And he is now in his 90s

I did look this up at the time, the grandfather put a couple of women through a bazillion kids each (suspect they had a harder time than he did).   I struggle to get the names right with two sometimes, do you do nametags for 18?

The grandfather doesn't come across well on wikipedia. 
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« Reply #34136 on: January 12, 2022, 03:05:27 PM »

Boris Johnson.... OMG!

Prince Andrew.... OMG!

Novak Djokovic.... OMG!


I love the news.
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« Reply #34137 on: January 12, 2022, 08:46:21 PM »

Boris Johnson.... OMG!

Prince Andrew.... OMG!

Novak Djokovic.... OMG!


I love the news.

Don't forget James Webb
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« Reply #34138 on: January 17, 2022, 12:42:43 PM »

Amazing fact.

Nelson was 5' 4" tall.
His statue in London is 16 feet tall.
That's Horatio of 3:1
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« Reply #34139 on: January 17, 2022, 02:38:23 PM »

How is the Spanish going?  Can you say "I'll get my coat" in Spanish yet?
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