Understanding Probability (poker game of skill?)

[#1Instigator]

Before we enter this discussion, most of you would probably be thinking 'of course poker is a game of skill' and I would have to say I agree with you. But what about the decision all of us have made to play poker in the first place? Are we definately going to be better off doing this than following the 'normal' society route?

 If we were to get anywhere with this discussion, first we need to fully understand probability...

Assuming I was to ask you a question of what is the more likely event (toss coin 10 times and record the result, 1 true and 2 false)

1) HHTHHTHHTH    2) HHTHTTHTTH    3)TTTTTTTTTT

I think the most popular answer I would get is 2) since we all know the chances of heads and tails are 50/50.

But in reality, the odds of all the results are identical since the coin has no previous memory and the odds stay at 50/50 every single toss, therefore it is just as likely for the results to be 1, 2 or 3. Given we toss the coin an infinite amount of times, we should have an exact 50/50 ratio...in theory.

From this result, we can see that in a set period of time, it is far more likely that there will be more heads/tails then for them to be equal. This also means that for most people playing poker taking 50/50 shots, some will win over 50% and others win less than 50% (in the long run) and very few will win exactly 50% of the time. If we look at a bigger picture involving the millions of people playing poker (assuming everyone is equally skilled and plays in only 1 situation), there will be a few people winning/losing every single 50% situation, and the other vast majority of players winning/losing around 25%-75% of the time. Is this skewness of probability what we call 'luck'?

'odds will even out in the long run'

That is what we all seem to say, but i'm starting to doubt if that actually means anything. In reality, we will either be lucky or unlucky poker players, and there is nothing we can do about it. We will not be able to play enough hands in our life time for probability to even out. So face it, if we stick our money in being a 60% favourite, we might only win 40% of the time. If we also take into account how even the exact situations can vary (AK vs QQ in STT and AK vs QQ in WSOP final table), this further skews the probability that we know and love. Imagine in a situation where you have AA and your opponent (you call them fish) have KK and you both get it all-in pre-flop and you win 20 of these situations in a row (avoiding the 18% loss rate), then on the 21st time you happen to 'get lucky' and play this situation in the WSOP main event heads-up for all your chips and you lose...this lost alone can be worth $5,000,000. How many times in your life can you repeat this situation for it to get evens?

'As long as that person is not me' 

Probability suggests that some people will 'run good' whilst others will 'run bad' over the course of our poker playing life time, and this has nothing to do with skill. Many argue that if we look at results in tournaments, the same people always get to the final, thus demonstrating there is skill in poker. Well, the chances of winning the lottery is slim, but someone wins it every week. If we work out the maths for the millions of people playing poker, the result will suggest that someone or a group of people will win far more tournaments than the others. Some call this skill, but isn't this a mathematical certainty? I mean look at this year's WSOP coming up, who is capable of consistently beating some 3,000 field of players? We also know that poker standard around the world is increasing and there are probably thousands of people with similar poker playing abilities trying to compete with each other, so assuming we don't lie to ourselves and truly have an edge over most other players, I would think that you are still a huge underdog to show your 5% edge and achieve what you wanted in poker.

'as long as I keep making better decisions than my opponent, I will win'

Now that we've understood true probability, I very much doubt that statement is true. No one plays perfect poker, no not even Phil Helmuth, we all make mistakes. We do not always get our money in being the favourite, and even if we do, there is no guarantee we get the results we wish for. So can we assign a probability to a high level poker player that he will make money? If we were to work that out and it happens to be 75%, would that still be a good decision to take up professional poker? I do not like the sound of a 25% chance of wasting my life trying (very hard) to succeed at poker.

'your such a fish, how can you make that call'


So is there any grounds to believe that we can succeed at poker? That question is no longer that significant to me as I've already decided to dedicate my life to poker (more on that in next blog). To me, the risk-reward in poker can justify my decision to continue. And although probability is important, making the right decision given the situation and circumstances are more crucial. Probability only gives us a good estimate and a good base for our calculations, we still need to incorporate other factors in our decision making process. If presented with a situation where your 99% to win £100,000 but 1% to get a bullet in your head, my personal 'correct' decision would be to fold. So the next time you see Gus Hansen type players stick it in knowing their only 40%, try hard not to call them a donkey and think back to their 'aim' when making that decision. Some players might consider a 30% chance (pot odds or no pot odds) enough to justify their decision given their view of the situation and under their financial circumstances.

Although I still tilt, make some truly aweful donks and have serious bankroll management issues, I've come to terms with badbeats (there is nothing to moan about since it is a mathematical certainty) and learnt to appreciate other people's decisions rather than mindless critisisms. After all, we can only improve by focusing on ourselves and endless learning to make us a better player/person.

[Royal Flush]

lol

[boldie]

Nice post...let me summarise if you don't mind though as it's a rather long one

'odds will even out in the long run'

We will all die too soon for this to actually work...well everyone except TK.

'As long as that person is not me'

Some people run like Thewy and other poor miserable sods run like Horneris or LeKnave.

'as long as I keep making better decisions than my opponent, I will win'

Mantis is full of (sh)it.

'your such a fish, how can you make that call'

How on earth can Flushy make a living at this?

[blonde17]

 

Good post....a lot of sense and truth in it .

But... (IMO) The last three items that are mentioned Tilt - Bankroll Management and Donking chips off are some of the most important controls you have over your own ability to win long term ...without honing those skills all your above knowledge/Skill and understanding alone... will be useless

[bolt pp]

you forget to tell us how to win more than 50% of our 50/50s, can you include it in your next post pls.

[NoflopsHomer]

you forget to tell us how to win more than 50% of our 50/50s, can you include it in your next post pls.

File under 'T' for Thew.

[Pyso]

I like this post, it brings up a different way of looking at luck. Nice job.

You have correctly pointed out that's all really about time and place. It seems to me that you need to get lucky at the right time in the right circumstances and not get unlucky when it can really hurt you... and that might be as much spiritual as it is mathematical..who knows?

But as Gary Player once said, "..the more I practise, the luckier I get.."

[kinboshi]

Table selection FTW

(Good post by the way, definitely some food for thought)

[boldie]

I like this post, it brings up a different way of looking at luck. Nice job.

You have correctly pointed out that's all really about time and place. It seems to me that you need to get lucky at the right time in the right circumstances and not get unlucky when it can really hurt you... and that might be as much spiritual as it is mathematical..who knows?

But as Gary Player once said, "..the more I practise, the luckier I get.."

I think our TJ once said it was 30% skill and 70% luck...I don't think he's far off...

[AndrewT]

But in reality, the odds of all the results are identical since the coin has no previous memory and the odds stay at 50/50 every single toss

Correct.

'odds will even out in the long run'

That is what we all seem to say, but i'm starting to doubt if that actually means anything. In reality, we will either be lucky or unlucky poker players, and there is nothing we can do about it. We will not be able to play enough hands in our life time for probability to even out. So face it, if we stick our money in being a 60% favourite, we might only win 40% of the time. If we also take into account how even the exact situations can vary (AK vs QQ in STT and AK vs QQ in WSOP final table), this further skews the probability that we know and love. Imagine in a situation where you have AA and your opponent (you call them fish) have KK and you both get it all-in pre-flop and you win 20 of these situations in a row (avoiding the 18% loss rate), then on the 21st time you happen to 'get lucky' and play this situation in the WSOP main event heads-up for all your chips and you lose...this lost alone can be worth $5,000,000. How many times in your life can you repeat this situation for it to get evens?

Er, you can't tell. The cards have no previous memory of being 'not evens' so far. Remember, you said this earlier in the article.

I'm sure we've had a big thread in the past on the nature of luck in poker. Some people seem to always run good, some to always run bad - this is to be expected when you have a 'luck distribution' which is a bell curve - some people have to be outliers.

[bolt pp]

If presented with a situation where you're 99% to win £100,000 but 1% to get a bullet in your head my personal 'correct' decision would be to fold

call ftw

[gatso]

before each poker session I draw a picture of Julian's face on a post-it note and stick it on my monitor. everytime I'm in a coinflip situation I stroke the picture for luck

[boldie]

before each poker session I draw a picture of Julian's face on a post-it note and stick it on my monitor. everytime I'm in a coinflip situation I stroke the picture for luck

that's ever soo slightly disturbing..but I can see why you do it.

[RED-DOG]

Ironside is still working on "Understanding Proberly"

[jakally]

Nice post - although I'm not sure I understand this bit :

Are we definately going to be better off doing this than following the 'normal' society route?

What is normal?

In terms of no-one ever running at true odds.
Yes, you are probably right, but the more you play, the more likely you are to run close to probability.

This explains why occasional players / live players are often more likely to make a big thing about bad beats / bad form than internet grinders.

The situation that probability doesn't have a lot of control over, is when someone plays occasionally at stakes far higher than normal - e.g. a $30 MTT player playing WSOP ME every year.
Their luck vs probability in the ME makes such a massive difference to overall results (financially) that cannot be evened out over time (i.e. it is impossible to play enough WSOP ME for it to even out).

Hence why Jamie Gold / Jerry Yang etc... will always be considered 'lucky' poker players - it is difficult for them ever to do enough to justify otherwise.