effective 325bb cooler hand vs redbull £1/£2 no limit holdem at DTD

[Thekellster89]

ok so the blinds are at £1/£2 were 8 handed and i'm in the big blind with  .

some body has straddled to £4 and with a limp from redbull hijack makes it £20 and gets 4 callers!! so £101 in the pot going to the flop.

including: me (bb) £750 , redbull (utg) £650 , raise to £20 guy (hijack), flat caller (cutoff), flat caller (button).

flop: 

i check looking to check raise a continution bet from an overpair.

redbull bets half pot £50

raise to £20 guy flat calls

cutoff passes, button passes.

i raise to £175 total.

redbull thinks for 30 seconds , quite quick for a very big decision before declaring all in for £630 total.

hijack passes and its back to me.

my thoughts at this point:  initial range i put him on was 1.    2.    3.  4.  XSPADES 5.  .

i then further narrowed this range based on my read of his action to no.s 1,2 and 3.

i then felt 1010 was unlikely and put him on one of two hands namely 107suited , and 77.

but it felt like 95% he had 77 at this point so i ended up making a sick pass.

ALL OPINIONS APPRECIATED , AND REDBULL PLEASE REVEAL YOUR HAND!!!

[action man]

terribe pass, in a cash game. He prolly has nut spades or spades and a pair. Play lower if your frightened to call here

[AndrewT]

my thoughts at this point:  initial range i put him on was 1.    2.    3.  4.  XSPADES 5.  .

i then further narrowed this range based on my read of his action to no.s 1,2 and 3.

i then felt 1010 was unlikely and put him on one of two hands namely 107suited , and 77.

but it felt like 95% he had 77 at this point so i ended up making a sick pass.

If you'd kept going with making these reads you might have been able to work out what he was thinking of having for breakfast the next day.

How did you manage to arrive at a 95% probability of 77?

[jakally]

Nick's a good player obv. - therefore I dont think he's getting it in this deep without a v.strong hand, given how much strength you have shown.

I think he raises TT 100% PF, therefore you can discount.
  would make  some sense, as would  (plus  ).

FWIW I call.

Incidentally, what do you think his take on you is?

[Tom_W]

It’s hard to say having not been playing the hand myself and not having the benefit of previous history.

Your ability, previous history and knowledge of how he plays will determine how accurately you can pinpoint his range. If this range is accurate than you are crushed. Barring the 10-7 which I would weight less than the 77 and even the 1010 (perhaps not 95/5/0 though). If you add hand 4 & to his range. You have 25% equity. Add even more hands to his range to bring you up to 50% equity, the rake beats you. If you go beyond 50% you may be being too generous with your ranges. Its hard to say with no history though, does he like to peddle the nuts? Or does he frequently put over 200bb with 2 pair or less?

Regardless, people may slate you for this. I don’t think its terrible. Nice to see a hand worth commenting on for once.

[Thekellster89]

Incidentally, what do you think his take on you is?

[/quote]

solid!

i'd only really been showing down winning hands. and c/r to £175 is very strong i think he would need to give serious thought before moving in with flush draw

[action man]

he had a fluhs draw, he had good FE obv

[Cf]

I don't think this is a terrible pass, but it's still a pass I would struggle to make.

This post assumes that it's not a super loose game. You seemed surprised at 4 preflop callers so i'm assuming it's not a crazy game.

Let's look at this from villian's point of view and forget what you have. He's seen you flat call a preflop raise (could be quite a few hands), and then check raise on a flop that's probably missed most people (apart from putting some draws out there). Your raise is showing a lot of strength so either:
a) you have a hand
b) you're making a play thinking people are weak and you can take it down

We'll go with a) here. b) is possible, but in a multiway pot it's risky.

Given we now know you have a hand, what could it be? Well, it's probably the same range you gave yourself, except I'd be surprised to find  there. To me I'd be reading this line as a set, so  or  make sense.  is also a possibility. You might even have the draw yourself. We arrive at this conclusion and then go all in. To do this I either have  ,  , or  .

From that range, what hand do you want to see? Only the flush/straight draw. If he has the overset you're crushed.

[Thekellster89]

wasnt a flush draw.

and when i bet £175 into 2 players it dosent look like i'm going anywhere.

so not good fold equity

[action man]

it was tho, cause he got you to lay down a set

[Thekellster89]

it was tho, cause he got you to lay down a set

i am expected to call with a set though, and in position he could just peel

[jakally]

BTW, even tho I call, I don't think it's a bad pass necessarily - if you put him 95% + on  then you have got to let it go.

Just not sure you can get it down that narrow.

[Thekellster89]

BTW, even tho I call, I don't think it's a bad pass necessarily - if you put him 95% + on  then you have got to let it go.

Just not sure you can get it down that narrow.

obv not 95% 77 that would just be naive, but i really did feel i was just gonna call £400 off and get 77 put in my eye

[LeKnave]

it was tho, cause he got you to lay down a set

i am expected to call with a set though, and in position he could just peel

I doubt he can just peel a fd profitably with stacks like they were in relation to ur flop c/r size.  Nick is a savvy enough play to be able to balance his flop 3bet range with a lot of combo-draws and pair/fd's as well as sets.

Its a call yo.

[Ironside]

hands i would rule in would be As Ah or As

i wouldnt lay down the set on that board too many hands out there you are crushing and only 2 your behind too