NFL 2010

[Royal Flush]

Sounds amazing there.

Jets fans are pretty incred.

[gatso]

Jets fans are pretty incred.

thanks

[gatso]

that was one hell of a sack, flacco's not going to want to come back out again after that

[stonecoldkiller]

The jets D looks like it has picked up where it left off last year, got the jets-2 and my blue bolts-4.5.

[Royal Flush]

Why not turn it over a few more times ravens

[Royal Flush]

ha the Jets look truly awful, its a happy day

3 turnovers and still losing at , as well as receiving at KO.

Look terrible in the running game, doubt they can pass and the secondary is a joke. At the moment the bills look a better side.

[gatso]

yeah, def not looking good atm

what a horrible rule that led to the penalty on the fg though, they really need to look into changing that

[Royal Flush]

yeah, def not looking good atm

what a horrible rule that led to the penalty on the fg though, they really need to look into changing that

Meh just don't hit kicker. I loved the leap though it was incred

[Royal Flush]

Kyle Wilson is awful, at least you didn't waste a first round pick on him....oh wait

[Royal Flush]

Lol I didn't think he could get any worse but then he did, this is fun viewing

[Longy]

Lol I didn't think he could get any worse but then he did, this is fun viewing

Pity the fins only have 1 quality receiver, as against the Jets they just stick Revis on Marshall.

Think the Ravens are making the Jets look worse than they are, they match up well with a quality defence and a good receiving core to expose the Jets secondary.

[gatso]

was going to reply that he's looking terrible at cb but at least we can use him to return, then he did that so I cried instead

[gatso]

such a terrible performance last night. afc now looks wide open as 2 of the best bets for the title both look terrible

[TightEnd]

Going to have a crack at weekly bets, money where my mouth is.


Starting Bank 100 points


These were placed on Betfair on Wednesday, prices therefore as of then. They are all about value, not favourites.

NFL Week 1


Sunday night

Washington at home to Dallas    Washington back at 2.7 2 points. Based off these games always being very close, and Dallas having 2 of the 5 OL starters out and not likely to be in synch to click offensively. Think its an even money game priced with the home team a big underdog.

Sunday

St Louis at home to Arizona Back St Louis at 2.52 1 point

Just a tickle, my feeling being the Cardinals may struggle this year but be priced like last year's team in the early weeks. Minus Boldin, and with Anderson at QB, I don't think they are the points scorers they were. Of course the Rams have been horrible for three years, but should be pulling themseleves off up the floor this year with a franchise quarterback told to give the ball to Stephen Jackson and watch...

Both of these are early season "revert to mean" games backing the underdog at home, both underdogs should be improving teams.

The NFL tends to "revert to mean" as the poorest teams draft the best players the year after, and often change coaching set ups... yet the early season games are priced on last year's form. Underdog results are common in Weeks 1-5.


Sunday

Cinncinati at New England. Back Cinn at 2.84 5 points

Cleveland at Tampa Back Cleveland at 2.24 2 points


Both are underdog value bets

The first is based on Cincinnati having a) a tough defence including an unknown superstar corner in leon Hall and b) NE having a very young secondary and Cincy having a good QB/receivers to score points. This is not so much about Owens more that alongside Ochocinco there is now a young talented Possession receiver, Jordan Shipley, and a first Round Tight End, Jermaine Gresham to give Palmer weapons.

I like the match up against the Patriots weakness. 2.84 more than reflects the difficulty in going to Foxboro


Cleveland and Tampa were both shocking last year. Tampa Bay wouldn't be odds-on against 11 randoms from the Luton G imo, yet are here. Both rosters short of talent but what Cleveland do have is a talented OL with Joe Thomas and Alex Mack to keep the workmanlike Delhomme upright to nick this one.


My bet of the week is Cincy at 2.84

New Bank 90 points, 10 points in play

Crappy old start, but got close with Rams and Browns, under a score away from both winning

New Bank because of Washington, sigh 95.4


Lots of big prices this week


NYG at Indy at 3.25 on Sunday night is tempting

Are Atlanta really 1.35 against Arizona (3.55) at home? Probably not. 1.8 is the right price I think

Are Detroit really 3.25 at home to Philly (1.4)?

Passing glances at Miami 3.4 and Seattle 2.68 too




One bet though, St Louis, who I am convinced are a turn-round team 2.78 at Oakland 5 points. It's an even money game to me.

[Sheriff Fatman]

I think Detroit would definitely be value at that price, given Philly's injury crisis, if it wasn't for the fact that Stafford is out so they're also going with a No 2 QB.  This must also surely reduce Megatron's effectiveness somewhat too.

Kolb is definitely out on Sunday so Vick will start.  He was outstanding last week chasing a lost cause, but he's not a natural West Coast offence QB so will be interesting to see how he plays.

Overall I think Stafford is a bigger loss than Kolb (and Bradley and Weaver.....).

Still a big price though for a home team, especially if they're still fired up over last week's controversy.


Agree on St Louis and Seattle, not sure about NYG though.