AK late in a $550 STT

[Longy]

I really doubt you need to 68% fave here.

If you call and win: Your equity= 47.7% of the prize pool

Call and lose: You equity = .03%

Fold = 18.7%.

If my maths are right you can get it in as 40/60 dog and it will still be a good call.

[Doobs]

I ran it through an ICM calculator and on a 60/40 split.  If I just push and don't get called I am 35.48 afterwards.  If I win vs big stack I am 52.33.  If I lose I am as near zero as makes no difference.  .68 x 52.33 is roughly 35.48.

My choice here is either push or raise call and that was what I did the percents on.  I never raise/fold. 

[Doobs]

he is slightly ahead long run.  My roi is 2% with him at the table and his is 4% over 350 games, but don't really see that as important.  And there are probably quite a few games missing, so it isn't conclusive.  As I said earlier I think he is best at the table.  If there were 5 others as good as him at the table I wouldn't have sat down!

[Longy]

I ran it through an ICM calculator and on a 60/40 split.  If I just push and don't get called I am 35.48 afterwards.  If I win vs big stack I am 52.33.  If I lose I am as near zero as makes no difference.  .68 x 52.33 is roughly 35.48.

My choice here is either push or raise call and that was what I did the percents on.  I never raise/fold.  

Ah ok yeah raise/folding isn't an option i get it now.

Though running it on never getting called isn't realistic as you will get called a certain % of the time.

[thetank]

I really doubt you need to 68% fave here.

If you call and win: Your equity= 47.7% of the prize pool

Call and lose: You equity = .03%

Fold = 18.7%.

If my maths are right you can get it in as 40/60 dog and it will still be a good call.

He's weighing up raise-call line vs shove pre line

[Doobs]

ofc, running it without anybody calling isn't realistic, but is a lot easier!    I think it probably cancels out abit.  As I am going to be at least 50% vs a typical calling range by any of the stacks after me?

[thetank]

I ran it through an ICM calculator and on a 60/40 split.  If I just push and don't get called I am 35.48 afterwards.  If I win vs big stack I am 52.33.  If I lose I am as near zero as makes no difference.  .68 x 52.33 is roughly 35.48.

My choice here is either push or raise call and that was what I did the percents on.  I never raise/fold.  

This assumes villain's 3 bet range is 100%?

Surely the result sometimes when we raise is that villain folds, we win blinds, or go up against 1,400 BB player.


Also, as Longy points out, you winning only the blinds only is not the only possible result from a push. If villain has QQ,KK,AA he is going to snap us. Other factors (such as big blind calling) will help pull the number the other way.

ofc, running it without anybody calling isn't realistic, but is a lot easier!    I think it probably cancels out abit.  As I am going to be at least 50% vs a typical calling range by any of the stacks after me?

There will be a certain amount of cancelling out with the big blind between the two lines.

I think you wil be crushed by villain in the small blind though if he calls your shove. You'll be lucky to have 40%. (and even if we were 50% vs his calling of your shove, that would mean we could ignore cEV, but not $EV.)

[gatso]

This assumes villain's 3 bet range is 100%?

Surely the result sometimes when we raise is that villain folds, we win blinds, or go up against 1,400 BB player.

this is the point I've been trying to make. badly it would seem. if we're saying that his rr range gives him 40% equity vs AKo then we're assuming he doesn't always rr

[Doobs]

Probably more complex than I first thought.  But I think if he has AA, KK and QQ there is no difference in the result.  I raise/call and am in a world of hurt or I push and am in a world of hurt .  

[thetank]

Probably more complex than I first thought.  But I think if he has AA, KK and QQ there is no difference in the result.  I raise/call and am in a world of hurt or I push and am in a world of hurt . 

It will signifacantly reduce your 35.48% pp figure that you were using as the result you'd get from a pre flop push.

[gatso]

unless sngwiz has changed since I last used it isn't it going to ask you wtf you're doing shoving 16x and suggest you look at another way of playing it?

[gatso]

not used it for at least 6 months, sure it used to hate anything over 10x

[thetank]

we're comparing and contrasting the shove versus the raise call line.
 
wiz won't be much help with the merits of the raise call line. OP is looking to do that calculation for himself.

Wiz will give you a nice number for the shove line, but if we're manually doing the other line and looking to simplify things by as far as the shorter stacks are concerned then we should enter their calling ranges as 0%. Then once we have our raise call line number (similarly calculated with shorties never calling, as it would be a bitch to do otherwise) we can compare the two fairly.

Obv the shorties will be playing sometimes, quite a lot of the time even, but it's ok to assume the line we choose won't affect their ranges, and so any positive affect will affect both lines the same.

[thetank]

badly worded that, but I can't edit it the now

to clarify, the 38% figure I'm assuming was OP's result for his prize pool equity once he'd won just the blinds, rather than a wiz figure for prize pool equity from the shove.

[StuartHopkin]

I think it isn't a question of if I should call, I was always going to.  My thinking is that it may well have been better ICM wise just picking up 300 chips than having a 60/40(I am guessing I am something like that vs his range) for 3000 more chips, yet a 40% chance of getting nothing.

when you have to make the decision whether to shove or to raise to induce you are opening the pot so have no idea of sb's range so how are you making a decision assuming you'll be 60/40?

Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii epic Gatso fail!

Of course he can assiign a range to what he thinks the SB would reshove with.