The Best In The Business

[arbboy]

Sure some people on here might disagree with me but I would strongly urge you to rethink your decision to invest in staking heavily.

You obviously know a lot more people that I do in the poker world but there seems to be a lot of issues and heartache when people have to walk away from staking people.
The variance of having a lot of stakees can obviously all fall at the wrong time and cause you huge issues.

I know you like to support the community and coach players and setting a side an amount to do this seems sensible.

However I think you should be putting the lions share of your investible money into something with less variables and more secure long term prospects.

I am sure there is every chance you could prove me wrong, and if anyone can it would be 'BITB' but I just wonder where all this is going long term for a lot of people.
Long term is what you want to be locking up when you don't really know where we poker will be in 5 years time.

Just two cents from a concerned thread lurker

massive +1 to this

[arbboy]

I'm old and shit at poker.

Therefore, I also think you are mad to invest heavily into staking. By heavily I obv mean most of your new found wealth.

Before you even consider the variance and toughness of the games, what about all the hassles that comes with vetting horses, managing them on downswings, making sure they don't grim you, making sure they don't fuck off when they get heavily in makeup and go elsewhere, making sure they are not degens etc etc.

What if there is another Black Friday and all your stakee money is on a site? We will still probably look back on these days as the old west in terms of how poker was regulated.

I say this as a concerned buddy and fanboy, there is no doubt you are a shit hot player, but I sometimes fear you feel the need to prove your commitment to the game at the expense of your own well being. You'll hate yourself if in a few years from now you had lost a big chunk of it and, for example, couldn't get on the property market because of a poker related career gap on your CV or something. IMO you should use the big scores to do things to remind yourself how poker has been good to you - a holiday, a fancy car, a big deposit on a house. Something that no matter what happens at the tables, nobody can take away from you. Stop and smell the roses and all that.

Of course if you strongly disagree wanna stick me in EPT London?

even larger massive +1 to this reply.  Was just about to type literally the same thing word for word.  Listen to us guys who have been around the block in this 'dirty' world we operate in for as long as we have.  Staking guys has sent much bigger operators than you skint in the past and will do in the future again for pretty much all the reasons Dave has listed above the vast majority of which are non poker related.

[pleno1]

Staking for cash games really isn't high variance at all though. No cash game player should ever have a losing month. Ever. If they do something is very very wrong. If they have coaching from 3 of the best players out there then it should be impossible. I'm not going to be getting into any high variance mtt kind of staking. Ill hopefully be able to attact very good applicants and I'm extremely picky so the "fund" should be extremely profitable.

I was reading a timex interview where he basically said that he wasn't going to buy houses, spend money on investments or spend time preying about it. He knew he was good at poker and trusted his skills, psychological strength and bankroll to allow him to continue to do well and when the day comes that poker has finished he'd be confident that he'd have done well enough so that he'd be able to live comfortably. He's an aspiration, being a mini timex would be perfect.

Like I said previously I'm always interested in any form of investment. On Wednesday we actually have some guys coming round to our house with some start up ideas that are looking for investment. Some of the guys we are acquainted to here in budapest and go for dinner with etc are making 200k/month in online businesses nd we generally have very good contacts if we were to do anything. Stuff like that interests me.

@arbboy it's really impossible for a cash game staking venture to go busto unless its ran terribly bad. No player should ever have a losing month. If you have 10-20 guys and 2 have losing months that is unlucky. For 10 people to lose more than the other 10 win would/should be impossible.

[mulhuzz]

I reckon how much you underestimate how good/quick you'd be at understanding and investing in real business/markets, not poker.

Plus you'll have skills for the day poker inevitably ends/becomes not interesting for you.

Instead of putting everything into poker, diversify and learn how to trade forex/commodities/angel investments/whatever takes your fancy.

[arbboy]

Staking for cash games really isn't high variance at all though. No cash game player should ever have a losing month. Ever. If they do something is very very wrong. If they have coaching from 3 of the best players out there then it should be impossible. I'm not going to be getting into any high variance mtt kind of staking. Ill hopefully be able to attact very good applicants and I'm extremely picky so the "fund" should be extremely profitable.

I was reading a timex interview where he basically said that he wasn't going to buy houses, spend money on investments or spend time preying about it. He knew he was good at poker and trusted his skills, psychological strength and bankroll to allow him to continue to do well and when the day comes that poker has finished he'd be confident that he'd have done well enough so that he'd be able to live comfortably. He's an aspiration, being a mini timex would be perfect.

Like I said previously I'm always interested in any form of investment. On Wednesday we actually have some guys coming round to our house with some start up ideas that are looking for investment. Some of the guys we are acquainted to here in budapest and go for dinner with etc are making 200k/month in online businesses nd we generally have very good contacts if we were to do anything. Stuff like that interests me.

@arbboy it's really impossible for a cash game staking venture to go busto unless its ran terribly bad. No player should ever have a losing month. If you have 10-20 guys and 2 have losing months that is unlucky. For 10 people to lose more than the other 10 win would/should be impossible.

Again all you are looking at is poker related issues.  The issues me and Dave are talking about are non poker related.  You can have 20 out of 20 winning players and still do your cash if people grim you and/or pokerstars/tilt goes busto/shut down again.  I can still remember being at DTD the day it all went tits up and people's faces with 6 figures in these sites were under the cosh to say the least. It's obviously unlikely to happen again but its certainly not a 100/1 shot.  It's your cash and you can invest however much of it into poker you want but i think you need to consider factors outside of poker more than you have.

[pleno1]

Staking for cash games really isn't high variance at all though. No cash game player should ever have a losing month. Ever. If they do something is very very wrong. If they have coaching from 3 of the best players out there then it should be impossible. I'm not going to be getting into any high variance mtt kind of staking. Ill hopefully be able to attact very good applicants and I'm extremely picky so the "fund" should be extremely profitable.

I was reading a timex interview where he basically said that he wasn't going to buy houses, spend money on investments or spend time preying about it. He knew he was good at poker and trusted his skills, psychological strength and bankroll to allow him to continue to do well and when the day comes that poker has finished he'd be confident that he'd have done well enough so that he'd be able to live comfortably. He's an aspiration, being a mini timex would be perfect.

Like I said previously I'm always interested in any form of investment. On Wednesday we actually have some guys coming round to our house with some start up ideas that are looking for investment. Some of the guys we are acquainted to here in budapest and go for dinner with etc are making 200k/month in online businesses nd we generally have very good contacts if we were to do anything. Stuff like that interests me.

@arbboy it's really impossible for a cash game staking venture to go busto unless its ran terribly bad. No player should ever have a losing month. If you have 10-20 guys and 2 have losing months that is unlucky. For 10 people to lose more than the other 10 win would/should be impossible.

Again all you are looking at is poker related issues.  The issues me and Dave are talking about are non poker related.  You can have 20 out of 20 winning players and still do your cash if people grim you and/or pokerstars/tilt goes busto/shut down again.  I can still remember being at DTD the day it all went tits up and people's faces with 6 figures in these sites were under the cosh to say the least. It's obviously unlikely to happen again but its certainly not a 100/1 shot.  It's your cash and you can invest however much of it into poker you want but i think you need to consider factors outside of poker more than you have.

I've really considered a lot though. I used to work for a financial investment company. I spoke to them last week, was "as a friend" suggested not to invest right now, especially into northern property. Thus I messaged Eso. We have the guys coming this week with strt up investment pitches. I do appreciate all of the advice though its nice to gt some of the older guys in here to tell me to be abit smarter.

[Woodsey]

You should stake me and I'll show you how it is possible to go bust 

[AlunB]

I reckon how much you underestimate how good/quick you'd be at understanding and investing in real business/markets, not poker.

Plus you'll have skills for the day poker inevitably ends/becomes not interesting for you.

Instead of putting everything into poker, diversify and learn how to trade forex/commodities/angel investments/whatever takes your fancy.

Do you do any of these thing for a living? Genuinely curious question, no agenda.

[AlunB]

Staking for cash games really isn't high variance at all though. No cash game player should ever have a losing month. Ever. If they do something is very very wrong. If they have coaching from 3 of the best players out there then it should be impossible. I'm not going to be getting into any high variance mtt kind of staking. Ill hopefully be able to attact very good applicants and I'm extremely picky so the "fund" should be extremely profitable.

I was reading a timex interview where he basically said that he wasn't going to buy houses, spend money on investments or spend time preying about it. He knew he was good at poker and trusted his skills, psychological strength and bankroll to allow him to continue to do well and when the day comes that poker has finished he'd be confident that he'd have done well enough so that he'd be able to live comfortably. He's an aspiration, being a mini timex would be perfect.

Like I said previously I'm always interested in any form of investment. On Wednesday we actually have some guys coming round to our house with some start up ideas that are looking for investment. Some of the guys we are acquainted to here in budapest and go for dinner with etc are making 200k/month in online businesses nd we generally have very good contacts if we were to do anything. Stuff like that interests me.

@arbboy it's really impossible for a cash game staking venture to go busto unless its ran terribly bad. No player should ever have a losing month. If you have 10-20 guys and 2 have losing months that is unlucky. For 10 people to lose more than the other 10 win would/should be impossible.

Really? Is this now accepted wisdom?

[arbboy]

Staking for cash games really isn't high variance at all though. No cash game player should ever have a losing month. Ever. If they do something is very very wrong. If they have coaching from 3 of the best players out there then it should be impossible. I'm not going to be getting into any high variance mtt kind of staking. Ill hopefully be able to attact very good applicants and I'm extremely picky so the "fund" should be extremely profitable.

I was reading a timex interview where he basically said that he wasn't going to buy houses, spend money on investments or spend time preying about it. He knew he was good at poker and trusted his skills, psychological strength and bankroll to allow him to continue to do well and when the day comes that poker has finished he'd be confident that he'd have done well enough so that he'd be able to live comfortably. He's an aspiration, being a mini timex would be perfect.

Like I said previously I'm always interested in any form of investment. On Wednesday we actually have some guys coming round to our house with some start up ideas that are looking for investment. Some of the guys we are acquainted to here in budapest and go for dinner with etc are making 200k/month in online businesses nd we generally have very good contacts if we were to do anything. Stuff like that interests me.

@arbboy it's really impossible for a cash game staking venture to go busto unless its ran terribly bad. No player should ever have a losing month. If you have 10-20 guys and 2 have losing months that is unlucky. For 10 people to lose more than the other 10 win would/should be impossible.

Really? Is this now accepted wisdom?

What if your biggest horse rooms with a modern day kelldonk and his key locker (or whatever the device was kelldonk used to grim his room mate via his laptop's keypad) at an ept and hoovers your biggest horse's whole stars roll to his account via the heads up tables whilst your horse is playing the ept?  You are massively assuming your 20 horses will all be as smart/savy and cautious with your money as you would be.

[Honeybadger]

Staking for cash games really isn't high variance at all though. No cash game player should ever have a losing month. Ever. If they do something is very very wrong.

Patrick, this is completely wrong.

I have had plenty of losing months, and I do okay at poker.

My friend Gavz101 had an 18 month downswing playing online PLO. And he is very, very good indeed and has won millions of dollars during his poker career. Yes, PLO is higher variance than NLHE and he was playing in pretty tough high-stakes games, but the same thing holds true for any poker variant, just to a greater or lesser degree.

A few years ago I started buying loads of pieces of people in tournaments, both online and live. I did it properly, made sure that they were all good investments, did not ever just punt around, kept a full spreadsheet etc. I probably bought 500 or so pieces, and many of these were packages so it was a lot more than 500 tourneys. And I did my absolute bollocks, it seemed no one I  bought a piece in ever returned a positive result!

Also, if I remember correctly, over a 1.5m hand sample of online 6max NLHE I ran over 300 BIs below EV.

Maybe I am just cursed and run worse at this gambling malarkey than most others. But never, ever underestimate variance.

Also, never ever underestimate the potential to be grimmed/ripped off. I have staked quite a few players over the last 5-6 years, and I always factored in that I would undoubtedly get ripped off at some point by at least one of them. This was fine, it was all part of the 'EV equation' for me. But one guy was different. He was one of my best mates, someone I trusted totally and had massive respect for, both as a professional gambler and as a person. There was zero chance of him ripping me off.

Guess which one of my stakees ended up developing a cocaine and online slots habit and stealing 15k from me?

Finally, it is a LOT of effort and commitment to take on stakees, and this should not be underestimated either. It is not just that you have to coach them with technical poker stuff - this part I am sure you would be fine with. It is the support you have to give them when they are running bad, losing confidence, wobbling. It takes a lot out of you. Especially when you are on a bad run yourself.

Not saying you shouldn't get into this BTW. Just advising you to go into it with your eyes fully open.

Cliffs: Stu disguises his thinly veiled moan about how unlucky he is by pretending to give advice.

[titaniumbean]

Staking for cash games really isn't high variance at all though. No cash game player should ever have a losing month. Ever. If they do something is very very wrong. If they have coaching from 3 of the best players out there then it should be impossible. I'm not going to be getting into any high variance mtt kind of staking. Ill hopefully be able to attact very good applicants and I'm extremely picky so the "fund" should be extremely profitable.

I was reading a timex interview where he basically said that he wasn't going to buy houses, spend money on investments or spend time preying about it. He knew he was good at poker and trusted his skills, psychological strength and bankroll to allow him to continue to do well and when the day comes that poker has finished he'd be confident that he'd have done well enough so that he'd be able to live comfortably. He's an aspiration, being a mini timex would be perfect.

Like I said previously I'm always interested in any form of investment. On Wednesday we actually have some guys coming round to our house with some start up ideas that are looking for investment. Some of the guys we are acquainted to here in budapest and go for dinner with etc are making 200k/month in online businesses nd we generally have very good contacts if we were to do anything. Stuff like that interests me.

@arbboy it's really impossible for a cash game staking venture to go busto unless its ran terribly bad. No player should ever have a losing month. If you have 10-20 guys and 2 have losing months that is unlucky. For 10 people to lose more than the other 10 win would/should be impossible.

Really? Is this now accepted wisdom?

What if your biggest horse rooms with a modern day kelldonk and his key locker (or whatever the device was kelldonk used to grim his room mate via his laptop's keypad) at an ept and hoovers your biggest horse's whole stars roll to his account via the heads up tables whilst your horse is playing the ept?  You are massively assuming your 20 horses will all be as smart/savy and cautious with your money as you would be.

can confirm pads is a bit of a fish. still love him though.


def think he's underestimating the non poker side of 'staking variance'. trustworthiness is so important, so hard to find and so hard to quantify.

[redarmi]

Big +1 to what Stu and others have said.  This is gambling.  It naturally attracts people that have degenerate makeups.  They might win the money and do it on drugs, they might play at stakes that you haven't given them permission to, they might just decide to steal your money.  They might even lose.  In the lifetime of blonde probably 100 people have seeked some kind of staking.  I can think of at least five cases of skulduggery and most on here know each other.  Take a portfolio approach.  If you want to put 25% of your net worth into a staking operation then go for it but just don't put it all on the line.  You have worked too hard for it.

[rfgqqabc]

Staking for cash games really isn't high variance at all though. No cash game player should ever have a losing month. Ever. If they do something is very very wrong.

Absolutely absurd statement.

http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

Even someone playing in games that are by far and away the best on the internet, able to win @ 10bb/100 and playing 50k hands a month would lose sometimes.

The probability of someone who is winning at 4bb/100 and playing 50k hands a month losing is 11.6519%.

There is nearly a 1% chance of someone who is winning at 2.5bb/100 loses over a 500k hand sample. Please don't underestimate variance. Everyone here has a lot of valid points and whilst I personally think investing in stocks or something of that nature is bad, I think diversifying your capital is an absolute must for obvious reasons. There should be some ok low variance investment options that might not make too much but they will beat inflation and thats good.

[Junior Senior]

FFS! Patrick - this is like one of those PHA threads where the OP doesn't listen to the comments of the sicko's and MTT Boss's on strategy and then argues his original line was still best!

i wish you luck, i really do (now that i have actually met you and know you aren't some bot! :-)) but there are far more sound financial investments out there that should yield healthily.

Also, you are at that age and with the right sort of home life where you can't put a price on the opportunity you have to set yourself up easier for the future and buy a house or even deposits on two (and rent one out). The guys are right, if poker does go tits up at least you'd be ahead of the rest financially if you tucked some away now.

again, good luck but don't head long smash into something without giving it the full line check!