Prose from a Poshboy

[outragous76]

Def just punt for fun (which I'm sure is what you were suggesting anyway)

The one thing I would point out about doing it for a living, Is that you must have an inherent love for sport to excel at it IMO and I don't think you have that from what I know of you?!

[iangascoigne]

Sports Betting is so simple at the moment. Bet on RVP to score the first goal. Not that hard is it ?

[tikay]

I am thinking about taking up a new hobby: Sports betting!

Hobby is the wrong word. I intend to make sensible profitable bets, chosen by entirely by other people, and will be trying to make money doing it.

There's several reasons behind my interest in this.

1) anything becomes interesting with a few quid on. I love the sweat.
2) I understand there's loads of pros on blonde who make a good living from this who you can trust to "follow blind" with any bet they recommend.
3) The community spirit of Tips for Tikay is appealing.4) I have spare time which could be spent more wisely.

I used to lump sports betting in with blackjack and roulette as games you can't win at. "The house always wins" etc etc. But since the odds given are just the opinions of the bookies, if you have a mate with some niche knowledge, you can have a edge if you are extremely selective with your bets.

I understand the problem is actually finding a site to take your bet in the first place. So firstly, any advice about which site to start with, or do you use odds checker and find the best price, then deposit for that site? I will be betting in small amounts, probably nothing over £100 at first and keep track of my progress here of course.

I can't see it being massively profitable though. Say you bet £100 at evens and say for example you know the true price should be about 5-6. The EV of the bet is about £16 no? So you'd have to place a bet a day to make £500 a month?

But it's fun and if it gets me more into sports that'll be cool. Thoughts?

Morning Alex.

I promised to respond to this, & so I'll spend half an hour & jot down some thoughts.

I don't want to persuade or dissuade you, it is your choice.

You have an addictive personality, as do I, but you don't seem to have anger management (tilt) problems, so you should be safe so long as you manage your assigned 'roll properly & don't exceed 5% of your 'roll in any single bet. 

You mention TfT, & I just need you to be aware that I make no claim to be a good punter. However, I punted for nearly 40 years & lost most of the time, then I gave it up when I discovered poker. When Camel teasingly started the TfT thread, I just agreed to do it because it seemed to be good for the Forum, & might be some fun.

A year later, I cannot begin to tell you how much fun we have all had, & it has not cost us a penny, in fact we have made a very small profit of 2% ROI. And if the 49-ers win Superbowl in a fortnight, that ROI will become around 6%. Which, in monetary terms, is not worth getting out of bed for, considering all the effort that goes into it. But if you are after fun, all aboard. The TfT thread exceeded 25 pages yesterday alone, as we all sweat each other when we have a bet on the go, & just have a bunch of fun.

Incredibly, 100 different blondes have had a bet accepted by "Fred". 

The real value in doing this is what you will learn. We have some amazing guys on TfT, genuine pro punters. 

We even have a chap who worked for Frank Rosenthal, who was the persuasive fella in the film "Casino".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casino_(film)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Rosenthal

Anyway, a few comments will follow.

[JK]

Cant believe some of the prices given out for the 49ers. Bookies gonna have a mare lol

[tikay]

You mentioned somewhere "betting tips by Camel, redarmi & other Pros".

Nope, that won't work, they rarely give actual betting tips, though they do from time to time, on average about once per fortnight.

What they & others WILL teach you is what is good & bad in general betting terms.

As well as Camel & redarmi, we have other pro punters there including Neil Channing, bobby1, Dubai, Chompy (into each life a little rain must fall), & several others.

Follow them & they will teach you some extraordinary things about punting.

In essence, it is less about finding winners, then finding value. 

You must never bet unless you have value, & you will have to learn how to measure value, which is mainly a mathematical equation.

Those guys can assess the value of a BTS, a FGS, or an Over/Under in football simply by doing sums based on the price of the outright. 

[tikay]

There are plenty of lads on TfT who make a good profit, so if you follow them blind, or find your own equivelants, you'll be OK. The problem you will have is sorting the wheat from the chaff, as folks get a bit sensitive when you don't back their tips, & you need to be a bit of a Diplomat with added people skills not to upset anyone.

Sample Size, as in poker, makes it awkward to say "he is a winner or loser", but by way of example.....

Doobsy has an ROI of 85% over 25 bets.

A lad called hector has an ROI of 22% over 141 bets. (He has an amazing eye for value).

Tighty has an ROI of 10% over 112 bets.

Kukushkin88 has a ROI of 20% over 24 bets.

horseplayer has an ROI of 44% over 54 bets.

In fact horseplayer ran a horse race punting thread where he turned £1,000 into £2,200 in short time, but sadly, his Mum fell very ill recently, so he does not bet so much right now.

See....

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=59189.0

Dubai is 14% up over 14 bets.

So you CAN make money if you follow the right folks.

You can also LOSE money, & plenty of it, by following the wrong folks.

TfT deliberately does not publish a league table of winners & losers, because the purpose is not to make anyone feel bad, or embarrassed, so you must trust me, there are people who are like "whales" in poker - they have plenty of money (or did have...) but no idea of value.

[tikay]

How do you check a price?

You must use a site such as Oddschecker.

http://www.oddschecker.com/

It wuill take you some time to learn how it works, but it is an essential tool.

Take tonight's football match between Southampton & Everton.

Here are the Outrights.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-everton/winner

And here are the Sub-Markets, around 300 of then......


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/southampton-v-everton/betting-markets

Find the best price, click the price under the appropriate column, & it takes you straight to the Bookies site. Some folks prefer not to go via Oddschecker, but for the amounts you intend to bet, it's fine.

Now you will need Accounts with around 15 to 20 different bookmakers. Yup, 15 or 20 of the buggers. THey all offer different prices daily, sometimes best price, sometimes worst price.

YOU MUST TAKE THE BEST PRICE. If you don't, you have no chance of making a penny. Effectively, by careful selection, you can bet without over-round (the bookies theoretical profit margin).

Whether you deposit each time you place a bet (painfully tiresome) or, say, place £250 or so in each Account is up to you. Expensive, eh?

Note, though, that every time you open a new Account, they will offer you Free Bets & Bonuses. You must avail yourselves of these.

If you are successful, it is likely they will close your account, or "Restrict" you. Don't moan, it is just the way it is. Most of the Pros have to trudge round on foot from hight street bookie to another to get bets on.

"Pinnacle" will take any bet for any amount, & will not restrict you, though they are a pain to sign up with, as they want scanned documents etc.  However, they are the PokerStars of Bookmakers.  Do NOT bet with "YouWin" or "32Red" imo. You can manage fine without them.

[tikay]

You'll need a Spreadsheet.

Below is the TfT version, opened on the January tab.

The Monthly Tabs are across the bottom, & also amount bet on each Sport, with each Bookie etc.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=18


Every single bet is recorded there, proofed in advance by a copy of the BetSlip. The only think you will not be able to access is the League Table of who has won & lost how much, that is set to "HIDDEN".

As a young man, I'm sure you can drum up a spreadsheet in a few minutes, but if not, drop a PM to "MereNovice" who designed that one, & who Updates it for us daily, & I'm sure he will be most obliging, he is extremely helpful, if a little grumpy & pedantic at times. Very profitable & knowledgeable punter, too, & he studies Ladies Tennis very closely.

[tikay]

You will need a Compliance Officer too, to keep you in check, & bollock you when you make bad bets, or bet above your Max.

Doobs is good at all those things, he's a maths genius too.

[tikay]

Maxiumum Bets?

Depends upon your 'roll.

If it is just a bit of fun, set, say, £1,000 aside, & make your Max 5% of that, so £50.

We began next door with a notional 'roll of £1,000, but it is £3,000 now, as we wanted some headroom so that we could place long-running bets, where some great value can be found.

We have "forward bets" next door of around £1,000. The value of those bets though is, I hope, far in excess of that. 

[tikay]

Someone mentioned Blatch, & creative accounting.

That is a shade unfair, as most folks are inherently honest & don't deserve to be tarred with that brush.

For TfT, we proof ALL bets IN ADVANCE via a C & P copy of the Betslip, so nobody can make any snidey comments that you have smudged the numbers.

horseplayer also forward Posted all his bets.

"Aftertiming" is strongly discouraged, too, scorn will be poured on aftertimers.

[tikay]

If you intend to go ahead with this, I strongly advise you set some time aside & try & work through all the strategy stuff by Camel, redarmi, bobby1, BadBeat (Neil Channing), Doobsy, & several others. (Apologies to those I have not included). There is stacks of it, & it will take a while, but no pain no gain & all that.

Dubai sounds like a nutcase most of the time, but he really does understand punting fundamentals to a degree few can emuulate.

Its a bit like poker. If you want to do well, you'll have to put a lot of work in. You just will.

[cambridgealex]

Appreciate all this tikay

[TightEnd]

If I may interject?

Someone made a very good point about liking sport itself

I really do think that a passion for sport, or those sports you'll bet on, is a huge help. Not an essential, but it will really help imo

It will really help you short-cut the process of sorting out what to follow and who to follow

Do you have this Alex?

[tikay]

Mention was made of "Trading" as a form of punting. Be careful. Most trades are computerised these days, & they are way too fast & clever even for a Posh Lad who can play the Pianoforte.

If it still interests you, (Trading) chat with Trev Pearson (Typhoon on blonde) who is the very old miserable looking guy who is always at DTD. He & his wife do it for a living, 24/7, & he really knows his stuff. 

Another pro Trader is Simon Hawksworth, aka "Slo-Mo" at Gala Notts.