golf betting thread

[Simon Galloway]

Before closing a position, ask yourself what you would do if you didn't have a position at all.  If you think someone's price is too big and a sell, but you already have a buy position, then it's fine to close it out.  If you think their price is a bit skinny, but you already have a buy position, either buy some more and get the averaging ammo out, or at least let it run.

IRL, sometimes you have a bad run and you get tempted to crystalise a profit ~ if £250 "got you out of it" on the day/week/month then there's nothing wrong with taking that (even at a meh price)as the psychological pain of missing hat opportunity and watching it go down in flames afterwards could cost far more.

Human nature being what it is, most punters run losses for too long and cut profits too soon - which is absolutely the wrong way round.

Edit:  That was from a spread trading p.o.v, from a BF p.o.v obv if the price is too big you buy and too skinny you sell..

[Dubai]

The problem is- if u fancy someone at a certain price then you have an opinion on the market- and the market will never correct itself enough to reflect your opinion anyway- so I usually always think my fancies are still overpriced so more likely to bet them again than lay off

[Simon Galloway]

That's usually why I end up with a big position on the cricket then after starting out with an innocuous stake!  If the market doesn't ever adjust to my evaluation, usually at some point you start to wonder if everyone knows something I don't (and they usually do..) but it still takes discipline to admit you are wrong and take the hit (even if you aren't sure why yet) when things don't quite happen as you expect.

From what I have seen of some people's betting habits, they over-trade every time someone hits the rough/sand/pin.  They underestimate the cummulative effect of paying the bid/offer spread 100 times over 18 holes....

[Dubai]

Excellent post

[Royal Flush]

Never trade, it's a lot more fun.

[Nico29]

6 places in the us event? cheers tmar all the incentive i need to get back into this again, miss my golf sweats.

Edit-Just stan james i see go top 6, mbn having an ac with them!

Updated balance from after us masters is 73.6 points after only woods returned me 10 pts for a top 6 finish, while couples and caberra gave sweats galore and 0 return.

Us selections:

2 points win Mcilroy@14-1

1 point win Furyk@28-1

0.5 point win Bill haas@61-1

0.5 point win Cink@89-1

0.5 point win Charles Howell III@ 123-1

Balance=69.1 points.

Good luck all!

Wow didn't think i'd be forgetting rory and most likely furyk going in2 the weekend, but thankfully haas and cink are right on up there.

Gonna add one more to the cause, webb simpson is really firing right now and is handily placed going into the weekend.

0.5 pt ew Webb simpson@20-1 (first 4 1/4 ew)

Balance=68.1 points.

Nightmare sweat and no result again over wknd. Oh well gonna press on and hope some early work on the form etc does well from a value point of view at the players championships. Also better admit to having a last minute losing bet on brian davis of 0.5 pt ew@40-1 on sunday that takes my balance down even lower to 67.1 points, even when i aftertime i lose!

So moving on!

I like going with course form when betting on golf, especially on such a difficult course like this.

Both scott and crane are refreshed after breaks and love is an outsider with a nice record here.

Balance=67.1 points

1 point ew Adam Scott@35-1 (First 6 places)

1 point ew Ben Crane@35-1 (First 6 places)

0.5 pt ew Davis love III@200-1 (first 5 places)

Balance=62.1 points.

Nice priced sweataments on davis, no laying off here.

[Karabiner]

I reckon that there are some great value bets amongst those who are -2/-3 who are by no means out of it imo.

Just been topping up on Manassero @ 500 and Romero @ 290.

It wouldn't surprise me to see someone shoot through the field with a 63 or a 64.

[moonandback]

just had 2 pts on Kaymer @ 28/1
i thik playing as a 2 ball probably hurt him yesterday hopefully he comes roaring back today.

[Karabiner]

Judging from the very early player's scores the course seems to be playing somewhat tougher today.

[Nico29]

6 places in the us event? cheers tmar all the incentive i need to get back into this again, miss my golf sweats.

Edit-Just stan james i see go top 6, mbn having an ac with them!

Updated balance from after us masters is 73.6 points after only woods returned me 10 pts for a top 6 finish, while couples and caberra gave sweats galore and 0 return.

Us selections:

2 points win Mcilroy@14-1

1 point win Furyk@28-1

0.5 point win Bill haas@61-1

0.5 point win Cink@89-1

0.5 point win Charles Howell III@ 123-1

Balance=69.1 points.

Good luck all!

Wow didn't think i'd be forgetting rory and most likely furyk going in2 the weekend, but thankfully haas and cink are right on up there.

Gonna add one more to the cause, webb simpson is really firing right now and is handily placed going into the weekend.

0.5 pt ew Webb simpson@20-1 (first 4 1/4 ew)

Balance=68.1 points.

Nightmare sweat and no result again over wknd. Oh well gonna press on and hope some early work on the form etc does well from a value point of view at the players championships. Also better admit to having a last minute losing bet on brian davis of 0.5 pt ew@40-1 on sunday that takes my balance down even lower to 67.1 points, even when i aftertime i lose!

So moving on!

I like going with course form when betting on golf, especially on such a difficult course like this.

Both scott and crane are refreshed after breaks and love is an outsider with a nice record here.

Balance=67.1 points

1 point ew Adam Scott@35-1 (First 6 places)

1 point ew Ben Crane@35-1 (First 6 places)

0.5 pt ew Davis love III@200-1 (first 5 places)

Balance=62.1 points.

Nice priced sweataments on davis, no laying off here.

Added a cple more sweats to the loveaments tonight.

Go davis but also:

1.5pts ew Watney@16-1

1pts ew Stricker@18-1 both ew 1/4 odds first 3

Balance=57.1 points

[ACE2M]

i lumped on mcdowell heavy today. toms playing so well, worry....

[Karabiner]

I caved in slightly and just layed an even carpet.

If ever there were a course where "it's never over 'till it's over" applied, this is it.

Goooooooooooo on my cocker   

[stribling]

Keep it up Watney!!

[ACE2M]

I caved in slightly and just layed an even carpet.

If ever there were a course where "it's never over 'till it's over" applied, this is it.

Goooooooooooo on my cocker   

go on son. super solid. ,my boys dead

[doubleup]

I caved in slightly and just layed an even carpet.

If ever there were a course where "it's never over 'till it's over" applied, this is it.

Goooooooooooo on my cocker   

go on son. super solid. ,my boys dead

plonk!

quoted in case bokking comment required