It's just Ace high but I love it

[skolsuper]

I donk lead a favourable flop because we think villain has a hand like 1010/JJ  he checks back a lot if all of these hands on say a k42 flop but will always call at least one street if we bet.  If we check he bets and we call then he knows we have something - but if we donk donk donk we could in his mind conceivably have air

No way we ever get 3 streets from tens on K or A high, but we almost definitely get 1 street even when he checks back, by betting the turn or checking again and betting the river. I think we're more likely to get 1 street the passive way anyway; when we donk out, especially if we have a tough/aggressive image, villain is likely to fold on the flop anticipating that the hand is only going to get more difficult even if he's ahead (which if you really think about it he can't be).

[Dubai]

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[SuuPRlim]

he never shows up with aq appaz

This, but if he does have AQ in his range then

mind you i spose if AQ is the actual rock bottom of his range folding wouldn't be much of a mistake.....

This.

Also if we say he can have some dominated hands in his range pre, then it's reasonable to assume he's 3bet-folding them, so vs this part of his range preflop our equity from a 4bet is +31bbs, where by calling we

1) lose 16bbs when we both miss and we check fold (71%)
or
2) win 155bbs when we both hit the 2 outer top pair (12%)
3) win 31bbs plus a cbet (around £30) when we hit our 3 outer top pair and they miss (17%)

percentages are approximate, but that would put our ev from flatting at -11.36 + 18.6 + 10.37 = +17.61bbs. Obviously this is a massive oversimplification, but I think the final number is close enough, all the complicating factors such as our flush draw, the times when our opponent flops 2pr vs our 1 pair, the times we don't get one more bet etc will roughly cancel out I think.

So, against dominated hands preflop, if they are in his range, we still win significantly when we flat and only slightly less than we win by 4betting. Coupled with how much better we do against his stacking range preflop (do a similar analysis to the above but with villain's hand as KK or AA) I think it's not close. Bear in mind that this is the first time ever on this forum that I have advocated peeling a 3bet pre OOP, when usually I am the only one arguing for an aggressive line pre (see the AJ vs lolufold hand off skypoker that homer posted a couple of months ago), that should tell you how strong I feel the merits of a flat are in this particular case. Most of the time 4betting OOP is hugely better than peeling because of the information disadvantage we usually have against some aggressive opponent that is 3betting a range of hands in position. In this instance we know enough about the villain to be reasonably sure their range is not merged (to the extent that it contains suited connectors or any hands that he would otherwise fold to the open rather than flat) so we are able to play the hand pretty well postflop despite our positional disadvantage.

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Im sold. Someone get my call button

[cambridgealex]

Sickos ITT what are you talking about?! Don't scare em away dubai, god forbid the skip arrives and takes mondeoman's attention. Or skol super nears the 1k post mark and gets frightened...

[George2Loose]

I donk lead a favourable flop because we think villain has a hand like 1010/JJ  he checks back a lot if all of these hands on say a k42 flop but will always call at least one street if we bet.  If we check he bets and we call then he knows we have something - but if we donk donk donk we could in his mind conceivably have air

No way we ever get 3 streets from tens on K or A high, but we almost definitely get 1 street even when he checks back, by betting the turn or checking again and betting the river. I think we're more likely to get 1 street the passive way anyway; when we donk out, especially if we have a tough/aggressive image, villain is likely to fold on the flop anticipating that the hand is only going to get more difficult even if he's ahead (which if you really think about it he can't be).

Think villian as described (hero) may pay Alex off on 3 streets esp with his aggro image (I assume u have a fairly aggro image?)

[skolsuper]

Pretty sure Dubai is saying I'm full of shit to be honest, I wasn't sure whether my post was total bollocks or not but I was just trying to quantify the way the hand is going to play out when we flat and how it's good for us, better than 4betting anyway. In fact vs villain as described who has 99+ AK most of my post is irrelevant apart from the last line, we know enough about our opponent to play well oop if we flat so no need to 'cash in' our meagre equity preflop.

[pokerfan]

^Dubai just saying pointless thread, op had it solved with reads then every one comes on overcomplicating a simple spot.

[titaniumbean]

Mondeoman, you almost think on my level, not far off. Wp

This needs more love.

[Dubai]

^Dubai just saying pointless thread, op had it solved with reads then every one comes on overcomplicating a simple spot.

Obviously was saying this. Stop getting offended Keys just cos i told u the last stuff you posted was drivel