Hand with Julian Thew - 2nd nuts ever good here?

[smashedagain]

Is smashedagain on a huge level? I'm getting confused now.

i am trying not to be. trying to be honest about the situation and every single thing that my poker brain is telling me.....
two queues formed. one for hand shakes one for nose punches. the only one in the nose punch queue at dtd this weekend swung and missed.

[muckthenuts]

I'm not folding. Julian is smart enough to realise when he has a hand that may be ahead of the fishes range but not yours.

[EvilPie]

Please dont let smashedagain be our defence. OFC Julian is looking to make as much $ as possible, but I still think he has doessssss Aces.

So you'd fold?

[GreekStein]

Without meaning to sound like a prick (if I do I don't care much anyway), a lot of the people saying 'omg you can't fold because you have a set' aren't going to be winners in cash games.

In game time its real hard but I think you can fold here and be relatively happy about it.

If we're good enough to narrow someone's range down to 1 single hand we should be at home playing $100/$200 online and getting rich.

If Julian is so transparent that he can only have one hand then of course it's a fold and quite an easy one.

I just don't see how we can put someone who we've only played with for a few hours on an exact hand which makes it a call.

I hope your post is a level.

[Mondeoman]

Do not fold.  So many reasons why but the fact that he could be value betting worse ie aj a4

Also bit of general advice, statements like:

"never 3betting 44 pre
never betting AK ott
probably not 3betting AJ pre


only hand he plays like this is aces"

Are dangerous.  
How do you know hes never doing this?  All swans were white until one day a black one turned up.  Eliminate the impossible not the improbable.  Can i think of any other crap phrases...hang on.....................................................................................no thats it.

[EvilPie]

Without meaning to sound like a prick (if I do I don't care much anyway), a lot of the people saying 'omg you can't fold because you have a set' aren't going to be winners in cash games.

In game time its real hard but I think you can fold here and be relatively happy about it.

If we're good enough to narrow someone's range down to 1 single hand we should be at home playing $100/$200 online and getting rich.

If Julian is so transparent that he can only have one hand then of course it's a fold and quite an easy one.

I just don't see how we can put someone who we've only played with for a few hours on an exact hand which makes it a call.

I hope your post is a level.

Why do you?

Will it ruin your day if it's not?

[GreekStein]

Without meaning to sound like a prick (if I do I don't care much anyway), a lot of the people saying 'omg you can't fold because you have a set' aren't going to be winners in cash games.

In game time its real hard but I think you can fold here and be relatively happy about it.

If we're good enough to narrow someone's range down to 1 single hand we should be at home playing $100/$200 online and getting rich.

If Julian is so transparent that he can only have one hand then of course it's a fold and quite an easy one.

I just don't see how we can put someone who we've only played with for a few hours on an exact hand which makes it a call.

I hope your post is a level.

Why do you?

Will it ruin your day if it's not?

It was rubbish.

Nope.

[smashedagain]

Do not fold.  So many reasons why but the fact that he could be value betting worse ie aj a4

Also bit of general advice, statements like:

"never 3betting 44 pre
never betting AK ott
probably not 3betting AJ pre


only hand he plays like this is aces"

Are dangerous.  
How do you know hes never doing this?  All swans were white until one day a black one turned up.  Eliminate the impossible not the improbable.  Can i think of any other crap phrases...hang on.....................................................................................no thats it.

fyp think its perfect now
adapt and overcome...semper fi.. oo rah

[Woodsey]

Do not fold.  So many reasons why but the fact that he could be value betting worse ie aj a4

Also bit of general advice, statements like:

"never 3betting 44 pre
never betting AK ott
probably not 3betting AJ pre


only hand he plays like this is aces"

Are dangerous.  
How do you know hes never doing this?  All swans were white until one day a black one turned up.  Eliminate the impossible not the improbable.  Can i think of any other crap phrases...hang on.....................................................................................no thats it.

fyp think its perfect now
adapt and overcome...semper fi.. oo rah

You don't half post some rambling bollocks sometimes 

[smashedagain]

Do not fold.  So many reasons why but the fact that he could be value betting worse ie aj a4

Also bit of general advice, statements like:

"never 3betting 44 pre
never betting AK ott
probably not 3betting AJ pre


only hand he plays like this is aces"

Are dangerous.  
How do you know hes never doing this?  All swans were white until one day a black one turned up.  Eliminate the impossible not the improbable.  Can i think of any other crap phrases...hang on.....................................................................................no thats it.

fyp think its perfect now
adapt and overcome...semper fi.. oo rah

You don't half post some rambling bollocks sometimes 

ty

[EvilPie]

Without meaning to sound like a prick (if I do I don't care much anyway), a lot of the people saying 'omg you can't fold because you have a set' aren't going to be winners in cash games.

In game time its real hard but I think you can fold here and be relatively happy about it.

If we're good enough to narrow someone's range down to 1 single hand we should be at home playing $100/$200 online and getting rich.

If Julian is so transparent that he can only have one hand then of course it's a fold and quite an easy one.

I just don't see how we can put someone who we've only played with for a few hours on an exact hand which makes it a call.

I hope your post is a level.

Why do you?

Will it ruin your day if it's not?

It was rubbish.

Nope.

All of it?

The 100/200 was a bit tongue in cheek obviously.

I'll stick by the rest of it though and if it's rubbish fair enough.

[strak33]

Thanks for the laughs

[GreekStein]

Without meaning to sound like a prick (if I do I don't care much anyway), a lot of the people saying 'omg you can't fold because you have a set' aren't going to be winners in cash games.

In game time its real hard but I think you can fold here and be relatively happy about it.

If we're good enough to narrow someone's range down to 1 single hand we should be at home playing $100/$200 online and getting rich.

If Julian is so transparent that he can only have one hand then of course it's a fold and quite an easy one.

I just don't see how we can put someone who we've only played with for a few hours on an exact hand which makes it a call.

I hope your post is a level.

Why do you?

Will it ruin your day if it's not?

It was rubbish.

Nope.

All of it?

The 100/200 was a bit tongue in cheek obviously.

I'll stick by the rest of it though and if it's rubbish fair enough.

I'm not saying Julian is transparent at all. You don't win what he's won by being transparent.

Neither am I saying we can always polarise his or anyone else's range to 1 hand. In this spot though, from what I know of Julian, I would be 90% sure he has Aces and I'd be happy with my fold.

Whilst Alex may have only played Jules for a few hours, he will have likely spokem to Mitch, Andy, Deadman etc about Jules's game.

[WotRTheChances]

Cba to read all 543 pages of replies. I was at the table. At the time I put Julian purely on JJ or AA and nothing else. I haven't played a tonne of hands with Julian, but from my experiance, he is not 3-betting and committing himself vs the short-stack. Not sure the numbers given are entirely correct, but at the time it was clear that any 3-bet would be committing his-self (Julian) to a shove from the short-stack. Therefore I think he has AQ/AK, TT+ minimum here. AJ is just about in his range, but barely. Shortstack has basically any Ax, PP, KQ in his range, he certainly didnt look like he was folding, I seem to remember it being quite a big open from him, out of a small stack. As the hand was being played I put Alex on either 44 or JJ and we both agreed afterwards that 44 was a fold in this spot as Julian has AA/JJ just so much here.

It was basically me who spoke to Julian after the hand and asked if he 3-bets pre with AJ, to which he replied no. Obv he isn't 3-betting pre with 44 here either, therefore the only hand he was shoving with he was AA.

I did however say that i'm never folding the 2nd nuts here simply because A) i'm not good enough and B) if i got something like that wrong then I would probs either monkey-tilt off the rest of my stack or find the nearest rope. imo he basically only ever has AA though and maybe 1 in 20 has AJ.

[bhoywonder]

Surely post match he is gonna have the nutz.....don't u declare the nuts afterwards....even if outta misplaced kindness....