blonde NFL Fantasy League 2019/20

[jek187]

Oh, by the way, if you havent spotted, jek is a bit of a nerd when it comes to Fantasy Football

He is eminently beatable though.  All the research in the world can't overcome the basic distortion of reality he gets from being a Skins fan!

Should make for some interesting discussions though and I suspect we'll all learn a thing or too.

Nerd? Absolutely. Eminently beatable? Well, I guess if you mean that in the same way that AA is eminently beatable preflop, then yes, I'd agree there. Just know I'm getting my money in with the best of it.

And I don't know if being a Redskins fan distorts my reality, or because I have a distorted sense of reality, I am a 'Skins fan. But that does segue into making very clear where rooting for the Redskins stands on my rooting priority list. From lowest to highest:

The Redskins: They're kind of like a stripper. I may enjoy watching them play, but nothing I ever do will ever have a meaningful impact on what they do, are, or think about me. Only my money keeps the stripper rubbing up against me, once my money is gone and I'm not buying tickets to games, apparel, TV/internet viewing packages, they have absolutely zero interest in me. Still, there's no denying they're fun to watch.

Any sports bets I have: These are like 1-night stands. They're fun to root for, and even if you have an established track record of (un)successfully pulling them off, all you know are your general chances of it working out favorably. Because on any bet/any pick-up attempt, anything can happen, but you know it's never going to last.

My redrafter FFB teams: These are like a girlfriend. A good deal of choice and pride goes into them. I care what they're like. They reflect on me. A good girl/team reflects favorably on me, and is a hell of a lot more fun than a gf/team that's ugly/psychotic/terrible which just make you "that guy".

Now, the absolute top priority is the dynasty team. This like a wife. It is a lifelong (or at least very long) commitment. And while sometimes luck can lead to drawing a bad gf or having a bad FFB season, there is only person who gets the credit for what a dynasty team looks like. I've created my dynasty team lovingly and with pride. We're going to be very happy together for a long time. Coincidentally, I mentioned this set of analogies to my wife, and she wasn't exactly amused. But whatever. My dynasty team is awesome.

This is a fantastic post.

I have never picked a fantasy soccer team. I think the whole process is anal and tedious. Football is not about statistics and assists and clean sheets. It is about flow and passion. And winning.

I could never imagine anything was more important than QPR. And coming second, a distant way back are my weekly bets.

NFL is different for me. It is purely about gambling. I like the sport very much, but have zero commitment to any team. The team I support is the team I've put money on this week.

That's why I thought I'd give fantasy NFL a shot. The stats are not contrived, they are the very essence of the game. They are the very basis of which team I'm going to be supporting from week to week.

I think I'm in a bad spot starting off against you guys though.

Something I've always admired about soccer, is the amazing playoff system it has. Being a Redskin fan, and often being out of the playoff hunt with a good chunk of the season to go, I find myself rooting for them to lose to improve their draft pick the following year so they'll have something better to squander. That's really never a legit option in soccer's system, as I understand it, because if you're out of contention with meaningful games left to play, you're in danger of demotion.

I have always found myself wondering if there even was such a thing as fantasy soccer. It's never seemed like a sport that really generates anywhere near enough statistics. I've always thought it a dreadful idea, but that could be colored my typical American opinion towards the sport.

As an aside, many of my fellow NFL fans still root for their team to win, even when it obviously hurts their future prospects. The reasons given are usually nonsensical. These people make my head hurt.

Ironically, out of the Big 3 sports over here (NFL, NBA, and MLB) the NFL is the least statistically driven. Most people here would say the NFL "is not about statistics and assists and clean sheets. It is about flow and passion. And winning." Of course, compared to soccer, stats are absolutely the essence of the game. The fact that the NFL only plays 16 games/year, while the NBA plays 81, and MLB plays 162 makes getting reasonable sample sizes an exercise in lol. That being said, if you're profitable NFL bettor, and you enjoy the statistical aspects of the games, www.footballoutsiders.com will be a great site for you. Most of the typically reported stats for the NFL are terribly flawed when it comes to drawing conclusions from them. Football Outsiders attempts to solve that. And they even sorta tackle the "lol sample size" and interdependency of teammates problems.

Your feelings toward QPR are definitely the norm over here with fans and their teams as well. I don't know how many times I've been told I'm not a real fan because I'm not bothered when one of my fantasy players scores against the Redskins. But the Redskins will win or lose (ok mostly lose) no matter what I do. And also, whether they win or lose, I'll neither gain or lose anything of tangible value. Yes, there's something to be said for randomly (I'm not from anywhere near Washington DC) picking a team 25+ years ago and always counting them as my favorite no matter what, and having them win. But when my bets or players do well, I win money and/or bragging rights. I guess if I'm not a true fan of the Redskins, I'm at least a true fan of money and penis waving. I'm ok with that.

As a first time player, you may be a bit of a dog to the rest of the league, but there are some factors working in your favor.

1) At 16 players rostered, there are lots of good free agents available. In-season diligence can have a huge positive in any league, but it's more pronounced in shallow leagues like this.
2) Of the leagues I'm in, this league is my 7th priority. So you guys can definitely beat me to the punch on lots of stuff.
3) I've used this league to try some experimental theory-crafted stuff to see how it actually plays out before my high stakes leagues get going. So there's a chance something could go terribly wrong.
4) Fatman's in the league, and he's "due" to run poorly for once.

[jek187]

My redrafter FFB teams: These are like a girlfriend. A good deal of choice and pride goes into them. I care what they're like. They reflect on me. A good girl/team reflects favorably on me, and is a hell of a lot more fun than a gf/team that's ugly/psychotic/terrible which just make you "that guy".

Jek - I might change my name to "that guy" nice analogy.

Sheriff thanks for taking the time for organising.
Draft was good, I like others failed to compensate for the 2 TE change but ho hum, its all a learning curve - made a bad mistake taking Vick so early and lack any real depth but it will be a fun season I am sure - maybe my 2 main RB's can have the occasional huge week together and upset the odd team to keep it interesting.

Good luck all.

Glad you liked the analogy. Had fun writing it up.

Overall, I think the league drafted very well. I know two Brits fairly well, and they have both led me to believe that most of you guys are almost entirely clueless when it comes to American sports. Obviously, this group doesn't make an accurate representation of the typical population, as the draft was just as tough as many drafts that I've been in for a similar price against Yanks (not that we as a people are very good at too much anymore. Well, except food. We're good at food.) Nobody took a kicker in the first round, nobody drafted somebody out for the year early. Yeah, the 2 TE thing was largely not adjusted, but when most people don't adjust for something like that, at least the individual effect per team is fairly small.

Also, there's a ton of variance involved in FFB, and your team is nowhere near bad enough to be counted out of it. Especially if you stay involved the whole way through, good things can easily happen.

[Sheriff Fatman]

Oh, by the way, if you havent spotted, jek is a bit of a nerd when it comes to Fantasy Football

He is eminently beatable though.  All the research in the world can't overcome the basic distortion of reality he gets from being a Skins fan!

Should make for some interesting discussions though and I suspect we'll all learn a thing or too.

Nerd? Absolutely. Eminently beatable? Well, I guess if you mean that in the same way that AA is eminently beatable preflop, then yes, I'd agree there. Just know I'm getting my money in with the best of it.

And I don't know if being a Redskins fan distorts my reality, or because I have a distorted sense of reality, I am a 'Skins fan. But that does segue into making very clear where rooting for the Redskins stands on my rooting priority list. From lowest to highest:

The Redskins: They're kind of like a stripper. I may enjoy watching them play, but nothing I ever do will ever have a meaningful impact on what they do, are, or think about me. Only my money keeps the stripper rubbing up against me, once my money is gone and I'm not buying tickets to games, apparel, TV/internet viewing packages, they have absolutely zero interest in me. Still, there's no denying they're fun to watch.

Any sports bets I have: These are like 1-night stands. They're fun to root for, and even if you have an established track record of (un)successfully pulling them off, all you know are your general chances of it working out favorably. Because on any bet/any pick-up attempt, anything can happen, but you know it's never going to last.

My redrafter FFB teams: These are like a girlfriend. A good deal of choice and pride goes into them. I care what they're like. They reflect on me. A good girl/team reflects favorably on me, and is a hell of a lot more fun than a gf/team that's ugly/psychotic/terrible which just make you "that guy".

Now, the absolute top priority is the dynasty team. This like a wife. It is a lifelong (or at least very long) commitment. And while sometimes luck can lead to drawing a bad gf or having a bad FFB season, there is only person who gets the credit for what a dynasty team looks like. I've created my dynasty team lovingly and with pride. We're going to be very happy together for a long time. Coincidentally, I mentioned this set of analogies to my wife, and she wasn't exactly amused. But whatever. My dynasty team is awesome.

This is a fantastic post.

I have never picked a fantasy soccer team. I think the whole process is anal and tedious. Football is not about statistics and assists and clean sheets. It is about flow and passion. And winning.

I could never imagine anything was more important than QPR. And coming second, a distant way back are my weekly bets.

NFL is different for me. It is purely about gambling. I like the sport very much, but have zero commitment to any team. The team I support is the team I've put money on this week.

That's why I thought I'd give fantasy NFL a shot. The stats are not contrived, they are the very essence of the game. They are the very basis of which team I'm going to be supporting from week to week.

I think I'm in a bad spot starting off against you guys though.

Something I've always admired about soccer, is the amazing playoff system it has. Being a Redskin fan, and often being out of the playoff hunt with a good chunk of the season to go, I find myself rooting for them to lose to improve their draft pick the following year so they'll have something better to squander. That's really never a legit option in soccer's system, as I understand it, because if you're out of contention with meaningful games left to play, you're in danger of demotion.

I have always found myself wondering if there even was such a thing as fantasy soccer. It's never seemed like a sport that really generates anywhere near enough statistics. I've always thought it a dreadful idea, but that could be colored my typical American opinion towards the sport.

As an aside, many of my fellow NFL fans still root for their team to win, even when it obviously hurts their future prospects. The reasons given are usually nonsensical. These people make my head hurt.

Ironically, out of the Big 3 sports over here (NFL, NBA, and MLB) the NFL is the least statistically driven. Most people here would say the NFL "is not about statistics and assists and clean sheets. It is about flow and passion. And winning." Of course, compared to soccer, stats are absolutely the essence of the game. The fact that the NFL only plays 16 games/year, while the NBA plays 81, and MLB plays 162 makes getting reasonable sample sizes an exercise in lol. That being said, if you're profitable NFL bettor, and you enjoy the statistical aspects of the games, www.footballoutsiders.com will be a great site for you. Most of the typically reported stats for the NFL are terribly flawed when it comes to drawing conclusions from them. Football Outsiders attempts to solve that. And they even sorta tackle the "lol sample size" and interdependency of teammates problems.

Your feelings toward QPR are definitely the norm over here with fans and their teams as well. I don't know how many times I've been told I'm not a real fan because I'm not bothered when one of my fantasy players scores against the Redskins. But the Redskins will win or lose (ok mostly lose) no matter what I do. And also, whether they win or lose, I'll neither gain or lose anything of tangible value. Yes, there's something to be said for randomly (I'm not from anywhere near Washington DC) picking a team 25+ years ago and always counting them as my favorite no matter what, and having them win. But when my bets or players do well, I win money and/or bragging rights. I guess if I'm not a true fan of the Redskins, I'm at least a true fan of money and penis waving. I'm ok with that.

As a first time player, you may be a bit of a dog to the rest of the league, but there are some factors working in your favor.

1) At 16 players rostered, there are lots of good free agents available. In-season diligence can have a huge positive in any league, but it's more pronounced in shallow leagues like this.
2) Of the leagues I'm in, this league is my 7th priority. So you guys can definitely beat me to the punch on lots of stuff.
3) I've used this league to try some experimental theory-crafted stuff to see how it actually plays out before my high stakes leagues get going. So there's a chance something could go terribly wrong.
4) Fatman's in the league, and he's "due" to run poorly for once.

Fantasy Soccer? - ugh, the name sounds so wrong.

I've been playing Fantasy Football since around 1992 and we have a league on here (we'll have to get you playing this next season!!) - http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=58534.0

It's the 'simple format', which probably 95% of leagues play, where everyone can pick from the same player pool (so we can all have the same teams in theory).  It can be played with an auction, which is immense fun but more of a hassle to organise.

[jek187]

Oh, by the way, if you havent spotted, jek is a bit of a nerd when it comes to Fantasy Football

He is eminently beatable though.  All the research in the world can't overcome the basic distortion of reality he gets from being a Skins fan!

Should make for some interesting discussions though and I suspect we'll all learn a thing or too.

Nerd? Absolutely. Eminently beatable? Well, I guess if you mean that in the same way that AA is eminently beatable preflop, then yes, I'd agree there. Just know I'm getting my money in with the best of it.

And I don't know if being a Redskins fan distorts my reality, or because I have a distorted sense of reality, I am a 'Skins fan. But that does segue into making very clear where rooting for the Redskins stands on my rooting priority list. From lowest to highest:

The Redskins: They're kind of like a stripper. I may enjoy watching them play, but nothing I ever do will ever have a meaningful impact on what they do, are, or think about me. Only my money keeps the stripper rubbing up against me, once my money is gone and I'm not buying tickets to games, apparel, TV/internet viewing packages, they have absolutely zero interest in me. Still, there's no denying they're fun to watch.

Any sports bets I have: These are like 1-night stands. They're fun to root for, and even if you have an established track record of (un)successfully pulling them off, all you know are your general chances of it working out favorably. Because on any bet/any pick-up attempt, anything can happen, but you know it's never going to last.

My redrafter FFB teams: These are like a girlfriend. A good deal of choice and pride goes into them. I care what they're like. They reflect on me. A good girl/team reflects favorably on me, and is a hell of a lot more fun than a gf/team that's ugly/psychotic/terrible which just make you "that guy".

Now, the absolute top priority is the dynasty team. This like a wife. It is a lifelong (or at least very long) commitment. And while sometimes luck can lead to drawing a bad gf or having a bad FFB season, there is only person who gets the credit for what a dynasty team looks like. I've created my dynasty team lovingly and with pride. We're going to be very happy together for a long time. Coincidentally, I mentioned this set of analogies to my wife, and she wasn't exactly amused. But whatever. My dynasty team is awesome.

And, as you've mentioned the Dynasty League, this gives me a chance to give a bit of background info on the apparent ringer I've brought into the league.

I met jek several years ago when we were both active on 2+2, via a mutual UK-based friend on there.  The friend was playing in the Dynasty league and suggested me to jek as a possible player for a planned expansion to that league.  I'm still waiting to get into that league but a couple of years ago jek invited me to play a redrafter league he was running (I think as a trial run on potential D-League candidates to check whether they could demonstrate the required commitment - i.e. not abandoning teams mid-season).

That was my first Fantasy NFL experience, and I basically went through a lot of what you guys experienced last/this season.  At the time I knew the Eagles squad, the big name players and the names of 1st round draft picks from watching it on Sky that year.  Consequently, I drafted a 'newbie' squad (I remember Golden Tate being a pick) and scrambled to a lower mid-table finish.  However, by then I was hooked and had learnt enough of the basics to feel like I could do better.  2nd time around (last season), the league became the monster 'double roster' beast that I've mentioned on here a few times and I won it (in truth I destroyed the league part - I think I was 200pts ahead of the next team - the achievement was surviving the play-off lottery!)

I'd also become hooked enough by that point to want to play more leagues, which led to me starting this one last season.  So, in a roundabout way, without jek this league wouldn't have existed!  (He's also the one I've nicked many of the ideas from such as the variable buy-in, to give him due credit).

So for those anyone who's feeling out of their depth at the moment, it doesn't take long to become competitive (or get lucky) and most of you guys are way ahead in terms of starting knowledge base on general NFL than I was.

On a personal note, I'd definitely say jek is one of the smartest people I know and without doubt the most analytical, hence you'll often get the incredibly well thought out bits of info as earlier.  Like all of us, he likes to look for an edge in whatever he sets his mind to (he plays poker too, and likes the odd wager here and there!)

Jek - for your info - I'd say you're playing in a league where the NFL knowledge is way beyond a typical UK cross-section.  A lot of the guys here bet seriously on the NFL (amongst other things) and there's some very shrewd minds on here (Tighty, for example, is a walking encyclopaedia of knowledge on pretty much everything).  Even if some of them are still getting used to the Fantasy side of things, I expect this league to be really competitive (and a lot of fun).  I definitely think you have a shot at 2nd place if you bring your A-game!

Appreciate the compliments. And while I'm definitely analytical, you guys may see some strange things from me. It may help explain them to remember you can't spell "analytical" without "anal".

[jek187]

I feel like a poker player who randomly saw a seat open in a poker room.

Bought in and put my chips on the table before realising I'm sat with Ivey, Antonius and Dwan.

Thank God Eli Elezra in the shape of Chip Rich is in the game too.

I think there is a good shot that I'm Elezra and if not the next one down the ladder from him

I know I want Jek to post as much as he possibly can, so I can learn plenty and hopefully next year know what I'm doing.

I love NFL and absolutely love betting on it, but I know absolutely squat other than the players that I bet on for First TD each week.....

Really looking forward to this and even more gutted I couldn't do the draft now

The draft is definitely the single most fun part of FFB. You may want to join a free league on Yahoo or something and do a draft there just for the experience. It's a great time.

I'll write more about FFB strategy/theorycrafting if you'd like, just shoot me some questions. That VBD article I linked before though is an important starting point. Plus it's 7 years old, so the names are an amusing blast from the past.

[jek187]

Jek,huge Cowboys fan here

Not only do I have to cope with us choking twice a year against the Eagles, and Sheriff trying not to gloat, I now have another Skins fan, this time with his very own franchise quarterback to support, to avoid?

and we start on National TV, UK and US away at the Giants?

FML.

I think I actually hate the Cowboys more than I like the Redskins. The good news is that I've long since accepted the Redskins to be mediocre at best until Dan Snyder is no more, so I'm loathe to talk any trash. I expect the losses, and the wins are just gravy. You won't need to avoid me, we can just avoid saying anything complimentary about the Eagles.

[jek187]

As a newbie who got first pick, is it considered best to be first and therefore last in the second round or somewhere near the end of round 1 as you are most likely to get 2 genuine superstars?

Rodgers would be number 1 pick in every league, right?

To answer your 2nd question, in a "standard" league (start: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE) Arian Foster is usually the 1st player off the board. Then it's close between Rice/Rodgers followed by Shady. Imo, that would be in a 6pt passing TD league, in a 4pt passing TD league, Rodgers basically "has" to be outside the top 3. http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2012/adp

However, in a league like this, TEs command a *huge* premium. TE24 is going to be starting for someone. TE24 may not have an EV above 4PPG. The elite 2 figure to be good for 10-11 PPG, and the next two figure to be good for ~9PPG, when you can get a 5-7PPGX2 advantage over a typical starter in the league, that's a crushing edge. So I was thrilled to get Graham at 1.09. I'd have taken him as high as 1.04 (only behind the Big 3 RBs). If Gronk had fallen to me at 2.04, I'd have been even more ecstatic. He was the 7th player on my board, behind just the aforementioned 4 players, Tron, and Rodgers.

To answer your 1st question, from a pure EV perspective, the value of draft picks goes in order (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc). The reason for this is because the difference in value from pick 1 to pick 12 > difference in value from pick 13 to pick 24. This is because as you proceed down your list of players, their values are going to get progressively closer together. So the 1st pick is usually the best, followed by the 2nd and so on. There are occasionally odd situations that come up that will change that, but I'll avoid getting into them here as I'm probably already being confusing enough.

The concept I'm sort of dancing around here is called "VBD" or Value Based Drafting. Here's an article that gives a very good description of it: http://www.footballguys.com/05vbdrevisited.htm. There are some inherent problems with VBD, but it's light years ahead of guessing where the value is.

great stuff Jek. I actually did pull the double TE off in a 14 man league drafting 14 each that starts only 6 outfield players and a K and D, with 1 TE and a flex that can be a TE where I traded picks pre draft and had pick 14 and 15. I managed to get Graham and Gronk there which was the plan when getting those picks together.From there I took Sproles and then Jordy Nelson and Torrey Smith so in that team I almost start 5 wr it just happens that one is called a rb and two are called TE's. It backs up your example of having the real strength at TE that is way in front of the others and my rb and wr are in the second tier of players in those possies but much closer to their picks than my oppo's TE are to mine.

abs loved your relationship/FFB analogy too.

I hope I didn't lead you astray here. If your league's lineup is 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE + 1 RB/WR/TE flex, TEs aren't nearly as valuable. Since you'll likely only start one TE, it'll be rare to have a 2nd TE on your team that'll produce enough points to be used as your flex. I currently project Gronk out at 155 points. That equates roughly to WR8, and RB15, so there are lots of better players than Gronk for flex duty. The good news here though is that it's not that bad of an error. I haven't put together a board for a 14 team, 14-man roster draft like what you had, but I think you got good value with both of those picks. Or to put another way, my gut tells that those guys would have been inside my top 15 players. So you certainly have the option to trade that should make-up for the lost value of the Gronk pick. Heck, it's possible you could even net a better deal than what you could have gotten if you had drafted QB/RB/WR with the 2.01 pick. Apologies again though if I lead you astray, or if I misread your league's actual starting parameters.

From there though, I like what you did with the draft. I'm personally a fan of both Jordy Nelson and Torrey Smith. I'm not so high on Sproles (unless it's a PPR league) but if you like him, then he's great to have there as well.

Finally, I can't respond to your PM. I think it's because I'm on probation here. Once I'm entrusted with the awesome power of being able to respond to PMs on here, I'll get back to you. Or you can PM me your email address and I'll hit you up there.

[jek187]

Fantasy Soccer? - ugh, the name sounds so wrong.

I've been playing Fantasy Football since around 1992 and we have a league on here (we'll have to get you playing this next season!!) - http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=58534.0

It's the 'simple format', which probably 95% of leagues play, where everyone can pick from the same player pool (so we can all have the same teams in theory).  It can be played with an auction, which is immense fun but more of a hassle to organise.

You're right about that, fantasy soccer does sound wrong. I can't believe you degens actually play that.

[tikay]

Hello Jek, loving your Posts, though I can't pretend to undersatand a word of then. Fun to read though, & I go cross-eyed working them out. Bit like baseball to me, I don't understand it, but I love it, all those lovely stats.

What I DO understand however, is the blonde PM system.

You cannot use it until you have TEN Posts. Which you now do. So PM away sir, PM away.

[tikay]

Oh, & I should introduce myself. I'm Tony Kendall, & I'm a sort of superstar poker player, young & extremely handsome, I CRUSH epically, I'm even known to be sick.

Now, the thing is......

We have a "Tips" Thread, started by your new friend "Camel", a very long-standing pal of mine. We back things, you know, sports betting.

It is here....

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56581.14310

So if you ever have a spare moment, feel free to pop onto our thread & give us a tip each week on ther NFL. (Use short words please).

Give us a winner, & I'll give you a huge kiss.....

Click to see full-size image.

[jek187]

Hello Jek, loving your Posts, though I can't pretend to undersatand a word of then. Fun to read though, & I go cross-eyed working them out.

And the weirdest compliment I've received in at least a month is the winner for the first signature of my Blondepoker career.

What I DO understand however, is the blonde PM system.

You cannot use it until you have TEN Posts. Which you now do. So PM away sir, PM away.

This is fantastic news, and the PM has already been fired away. I will use the system responsibly and with care.

[tikay]

Jek - change your Signature IMMEDIATELY.

The date is 31/8/12, NOT 8/31/12.

I'm so disappointed in you.

[jek187]

Oh, & I should introduce myself. I'm Tony Kendall, & I'm a sort of superstar poker player, young & extremely handsome, I CRUSH epically, I'm even known to be sick.

Now, the thing is......

We have a "Tips" Thread, started by your new friend "Camel", a very long-standing pal of mine. We back things, you know, sports betting.

It is here....

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56581.14310

So if you ever have a spare moment, feel free to pop onto our thread & give us a tip each week on ther NFL. (Use short words please).

Give us a winner, & I'll give you a huge kiss.....

I usually shy away from even beginning to spend any serious brainpower on NFL sides or totals during the NFL season. I don't particularly care to compete with people smarter than me. I like picking on the weak and powerless. Drunks at the poker table, babies with candy, whores looking for crack, you know, that sort of thing. So I won't be able to give you weekly tips unfortunately. However, when Pinny brings their NFL win totals up again, I think I'll have some thoughts that may compel you to make a wager. That is, assuming futures are acceptable bets (once the time-value of money is accounted for).

[jek187]

Jek - change your Signature IMMEDIATELY.

The date is 31/8/12, NOT 8/31/12.

I'm so disappointed in you.

Wait, you're actually disappointed that the random American on the forums has come in with a total disregard for the preferred syntax of the community he's entered, and just done something his way? I'd think that was more or less expected.

I'm so disappointed in you for being disappointed in me.

[bobby1]

As a newbie who got first pick, is it considered best to be first and therefore last in the second round or somewhere near the end of round 1 as you are most likely to get 2 genuine superstars?

Rodgers would be number 1 pick in every league, right?

To answer your 2nd question, in a "standard" league (start: 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE) Arian Foster is usually the 1st player off the board. Then it's close between Rice/Rodgers followed by Shady. Imo, that would be in a 6pt passing TD league, in a 4pt passing TD league, Rodgers basically "has" to be outside the top 3. http://football.myfantasyleague.com/2012/adp

However, in a league like this, TEs command a *huge* premium. TE24 is going to be starting for someone. TE24 may not have an EV above 4PPG. The elite 2 figure to be good for 10-11 PPG, and the next two figure to be good for ~9PPG, when you can get a 5-7PPGX2 advantage over a typical starter in the league, that's a crushing edge. So I was thrilled to get Graham at 1.09. I'd have taken him as high as 1.04 (only behind the Big 3 RBs). If Gronk had fallen to me at 2.04, I'd have been even more ecstatic. He was the 7th player on my board, behind just the aforementioned 4 players, Tron, and Rodgers.

To answer your 1st question, from a pure EV perspective, the value of draft picks goes in order (1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc). The reason for this is because the difference in value from pick 1 to pick 12 > difference in value from pick 13 to pick 24. This is because as you proceed down your list of players, their values are going to get progressively closer together. So the 1st pick is usually the best, followed by the 2nd and so on. There are occasionally odd situations that come up that will change that, but I'll avoid getting into them here as I'm probably already being confusing enough.

The concept I'm sort of dancing around here is called "VBD" or Value Based Drafting. Here's an article that gives a very good description of it: http://www.footballguys.com/05vbdrevisited.htm. There are some inherent problems with VBD, but it's light years ahead of guessing where the value is.

great stuff Jek. I actually did pull the double TE off in a 14 man league drafting 14 each that starts only 6 outfield players and a K and D, with 1 TE and a flex that can be a TE where I traded picks pre draft and had pick 14 and 15. I managed to get Graham and Gronk there which was the plan when getting those picks together.From there I took Sproles and then Jordy Nelson and Torrey Smith so in that team I almost start 5 wr it just happens that one is called a rb and two are called TE's. It backs up your example of having the real strength at TE that is way in front of the others and my rb and wr are in the second tier of players in those possies but much closer to their picks than my oppo's TE are to mine.

abs loved your relationship/FFB analogy too.

I hope I didn't lead you astray here. If your league's lineup is 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE + 1 RB/WR/TE flex, TEs aren't nearly as valuable. Since you'll likely only start one TE, it'll be rare to have a 2nd TE on your team that'll produce enough points to be used as your flex. I currently project Gronk out at 155 points. That equates roughly to WR8, and RB15, so there are lots of better players than Gronk for flex duty. The good news here though is that it's not that bad of an error. I haven't put together a board for a 14 team, 14-man roster draft like what you had, but I think you got good value with both of those picks. Or to put another way, my gut tells that those guys would have been inside my top 15 players. So you certainly have the option to trade that should make-up for the lost value of the Gronk pick. Heck, it's possible you could even net a better deal than what you could have gotten if you had drafted QB/RB/WR with the 2.01 pick. Apologies again though if I lead you astray, or if I misread your league's actual starting parameters.

From there though, I like what you did with the draft. I'm personally a fan of both Jordy Nelson and Torrey Smith. I'm not so high on Sproles (unless it's a PPR league) but if you like him, then he's great to have there as well.

Finally, I can't respond to your PM. I think it's because I'm on probation here. Once I'm entrusted with the awesome power of being able to respond to PMs on here, I'll get back to you. Or you can PM me your email address and I'll hit you up there.

Hi Jek,

We start 1qb, 1rb, 2wr  1te, 1 flex of any of those positions. We reduced the rb's picked this season and took the total players in a team down from 9 to 8.

I guessed I wouldn't get any of the top players in other positions( I could have taken Jones at wr instead) but thought the two TE there to fill the flex and then 1 rb and a wr with the next two picks was ok.Did I make a mistake in that format taking the two TE first?

I think the rest of the league took their rb's early, there were a lot of 2 rb 2wr openings to fill the rb wr flex positions. Would a TE and say Jones there and then looking for Gates around round 4 have been better. I drafted it last week but I have another one this weekend that  is an 11 man starting team with only 3 bench players, that league includes a DL and a LB too. If you have any gems in those positions I would appreciate it along with your thoughts on only taking 3 sub players.

cheers