NFL Betting blog

[action man]

not betting but wouldnt like to take the -10 in a diviional game

[the sicilian]

 

Landed a sweet tenfold on Jacksonville, Atlanta, Giants, Arizona, Houston, Denver, San Diego, Detroit, Patriots & Green Bay

Got an 11fold with all those and Seattle tonight.

Also landed a "touch" on a 1st touchdown 4 fold, went for Sanchez @ 50s, Laurent Robinson @ 12s, Early Douchet @ 22s & Ryan Grant @ 11s.

Also got on Ryan Taylor 2nd td in the Green Bay game @ 100s.

They were the only 4 bets I had this weekend.

 

[gatso]

just finished watching last night's game. that is why I love nfl, abs incredible. eli is amazing

[redarmi]

Bit boring but I can't really see past Marshawn Lynch for first TD scorer.  My thinking is pretty simple.  They are probably 66% to score first and they have a pretty equal split of rushing and passing TD's this year but Lynch has scored 80% of their rushing TD's this year so his price is 0.66*.5*.80=26.4% chance of scoring first and 4/1 available.  26.4*5=EV of $132.  Where am I going wrong?

I think Jones uses a similar formula when pricing up for us lot

If I backed as many winners as Jones I probably wouldn't bother either ;-)

[action man]

had the £50 i got back from 365 on rams by 13-18 points at 18/1

[LeKnave]

not betting but wouldnt like to take the -10 in a diviional game

wern't you mad keen on the curtain -14 last week pal!

[LeKnave]

Bit boring but I can't really see past Marshawn Lynch for first TD scorer.  My thinking is pretty simple.  They are probably 66% to score first and they have a pretty equal split of rushing and passing TD's this year but Lynch has scored 80% of their rushing TD's this year so his price is 0.66*.5*.80=26.4% chance of scoring first and 4/1 available.  26.4*5=EV of $132.  Where am I going wrong?

I think Jones uses a similar formula when pricing up for us lot

If I backed as many winners as Jones I probably wouldn't bother either ;-)

yeah i'm with you on that m8, have backed Lynch first seahawk @ 23/10 with PaddyPower.

[LeKnave]

I think Jones uses a similar formula when pricing up for us lot

ha, lotta work goes into this shit in fairness!

[ChipRich]

Baldwin 1st TD/1st Seahawks 16s and 10s

Lynch 1st Seahawks TD 23/10

1st TD in game Rushing TD 7/4

[Marky147]

I think Jones uses a similar formula when pricing up for us lot

ha, lotta work goes into this shit in fairness!

Yeah I can imagine there is a fair bit of research and team knowledge that's required for the bets, having to look into players/injuries and likely starters etc.

I'm trying to get my head around it a little more even though I'm still really green as far as the game goes. I've even taken to reading bits on Wikipedia of all places to try and understand things a little better

[adnmdv]

Bit boring but I can't really see past Marshawn Lynch for first TD scorer.  My thinking is pretty simple.  They are probably 66% to score first and they have a pretty equal split of rushing and passing TD's this year but Lynch has scored 80% of their rushing TD's this year so his price is 0.66*.5*.80=26.4% chance of scoring first and 4/1 available.  26.4*5=EV of $132.  Where am I going wrong?

I'm a complete NFL fish in terms of knowledge of the game, so I may well be wrong here but just looking from the stats, in general, teams score a significantly greater % of TDs from passing rather than rushing - only one side this season is R>P. This season SEA have got 10/23 TDs rushing = 43.4% (so 50% seems pretty loose here?). Last year was 40%, not sure how you can justify 50% here.

[LeedsRhodesy]

Baldwin 1st TD/1st Seahawks 16s and 10s

On..........now what number is he please!!!

[ChipRich]

Baldwin 1st TD/1st Seahawks 16s and 10s

On..........now what number is he please!!!

15

[LeedsRhodesy]

Baldwin 1st TD/1st Seahawks 16s and 10s

On..........now what number is he please!!!

15

TY Ty   on -10 to get gogogogo

[redarmi]

I'm a complete NFL fish in terms of knowledge of the game, so I may well be wrong here but just looking from the stats, in general, teams score a significantly greater % of TDs from passing rather than rushing - only one side this season is R>P. This season SEA have got 10/23 TDs rushing = 43.4% (so 50% seems pretty loose here?). Last year was 40%, not sure how you can justify 50% here.

Yeah....I was fairly loose in my estimations but I am assuming that they will run more tonight because the Rams have the worst rushing defense in football but it is tough to be totally accurate.  The 66% is fairly loose too and when you take the proportions for the team to score first TD they are probably slightly bigger than 66% too.  Even if we use .436*.66*.80 we get 23.03% so I am pretty sure he is value irrespective although obviously not having an accurate figure might mean that you overstake slightly but I bet a smaller percentage of kelly on these first TD scorers anyway because I am not massively confident of my prices and I also bets some of Jones' too and I want a bigger sample size of his before I bet them bigger.