action man
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« Reply #750 on: December 12, 2011, 10:42:31 PM » |
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not betting but wouldnt like to take the -10 in a diviional game
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the sicilian
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« Reply #751 on: December 12, 2011, 10:45:33 PM » |
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Landed a sweet tenfold on Jacksonville, Atlanta, Giants, Arizona, Houston, Denver, San Diego, Detroit, Patriots & Green Bay
Got an 11fold with all those and Seattle tonight.
Also landed a "touch" on a 1st touchdown 4 fold, went for Sanchez @ 50s, Laurent Robinson @ 12s, Early Douchet @ 22s & Ryan Grant @ 11s.
Also got on Ryan Taylor 2nd td in the Green Bay game @ 100s.
They were the only 4 bets I had this weekend.
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Just because you don't like it...... It doesn't mean it's not the truth
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gatso
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« Reply #752 on: December 12, 2011, 10:54:24 PM » |
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just finished watching last night's game. that is why I love nfl, abs incredible. eli is amazing
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If you get to the yeasty clunge you've gone too far
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redarmi
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« Reply #753 on: December 12, 2011, 11:19:35 PM » |
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Bit boring but I can't really see past Marshawn Lynch for first TD scorer. My thinking is pretty simple. They are probably 66% to score first and they have a pretty equal split of rushing and passing TD's this year but Lynch has scored 80% of their rushing TD's this year so his price is 0.66*.5*.80=26.4% chance of scoring first and 4/1 available. 26.4*5=EV of $132. Where am I going wrong?
I think Jones uses a similar formula when pricing up for us lot If I backed as many winners as Jones I probably wouldn't bother either ;-)
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action man
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« Reply #754 on: December 12, 2011, 11:47:39 PM » |
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had the £50 i got back from 365 on rams by 13-18 points at 18/1
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LeKnave
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« Reply #755 on: December 13, 2011, 12:00:53 AM » |
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not betting but wouldnt like to take the -10 in a diviional game
wern't you mad keen on the curtain -14 last week pal!
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LeKnave
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« Reply #756 on: December 13, 2011, 12:12:50 AM » |
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Bit boring but I can't really see past Marshawn Lynch for first TD scorer. My thinking is pretty simple. They are probably 66% to score first and they have a pretty equal split of rushing and passing TD's this year but Lynch has scored 80% of their rushing TD's this year so his price is 0.66*.5*.80=26.4% chance of scoring first and 4/1 available. 26.4*5=EV of $132. Where am I going wrong?
I think Jones uses a similar formula when pricing up for us lot If I backed as many winners as Jones I probably wouldn't bother either ;-) yeah i'm with you on that m8, have backed Lynch first seahawk @ 23/10 with PaddyPower.
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LeKnave
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« Reply #757 on: December 13, 2011, 12:13:31 AM » |
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I think Jones uses a similar formula when pricing up for us lot ha, lotta work goes into this shit in fairness!
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ChipRich
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« Reply #758 on: December 13, 2011, 12:20:28 AM » |
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Baldwin 1st TD/1st Seahawks 16s and 10s
Lynch 1st Seahawks TD 23/10
1st TD in game Rushing TD 7/4
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Marky147
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« Reply #759 on: December 13, 2011, 12:26:32 AM » |
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I think Jones uses a similar formula when pricing up for us lot ha, lotta work goes into this shit in fairness! Yeah I can imagine there is a fair bit of research and team knowledge that's required for the bets, having to look into players/injuries and likely starters etc. I'm trying to get my head around it a little more even though I'm still really green as far as the game goes. I've even taken to reading bits on Wikipedia of all places to try and understand things a little better
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adnmdv
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« Reply #760 on: December 13, 2011, 12:53:50 AM » |
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Bit boring but I can't really see past Marshawn Lynch for first TD scorer. My thinking is pretty simple. They are probably 66% to score first and they have a pretty equal split of rushing and passing TD's this year but Lynch has scored 80% of their rushing TD's this year so his price is 0.66*.5*.80=26.4% chance of scoring first and 4/1 available. 26.4*5=EV of $132. Where am I going wrong?
I'm a complete NFL fish in terms of knowledge of the game, so I may well be wrong here but just looking from the stats, in general, teams score a significantly greater % of TDs from passing rather than rushing - only one side this season is R>P. This season SEA have got 10/23 TDs rushing = 43.4% (so 50% seems pretty loose here?). Last year was 40%, not sure how you can justify 50% here.
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LeedsRhodesy
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« Reply #761 on: December 13, 2011, 01:23:46 AM » |
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Baldwin 1st TD/1st Seahawks 16s and 10s
On..........now what number is he please!!!
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ChipRich
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« Reply #762 on: December 13, 2011, 01:27:42 AM » |
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Baldwin 1st TD/1st Seahawks 16s and 10s
On..........now what number is he please!!! 15
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LeedsRhodesy
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« Reply #763 on: December 13, 2011, 01:30:31 AM » |
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Baldwin 1st TD/1st Seahawks 16s and 10s
On..........now what number is he please!!! 15 TY Ty on -10 to get gogogogo
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redarmi
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« Reply #764 on: December 13, 2011, 01:36:50 AM » |
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I'm a complete NFL fish in terms of knowledge of the game, so I may well be wrong here but just looking from the stats, in general, teams score a significantly greater % of TDs from passing rather than rushing - only one side this season is R>P. This season SEA have got 10/23 TDs rushing = 43.4% (so 50% seems pretty loose here?). Last year was 40%, not sure how you can justify 50% here.
Yeah....I was fairly loose in my estimations but I am assuming that they will run more tonight because the Rams have the worst rushing defense in football but it is tough to be totally accurate. The 66% is fairly loose too and when you take the proportions for the team to score first TD they are probably slightly bigger than 66% too. Even if we use .436*.66*.80 we get 23.03% so I am pretty sure he is value irrespective although obviously not having an accurate figure might mean that you overstake slightly but I bet a smaller percentage of kelly on these first TD scorers anyway because I am not massively confident of my prices and I also bets some of Jones' too and I want a bigger sample size of his before I bet them bigger.
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