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Author Topic: My tennis betting diary  (Read 85650 times)
RED-DOG
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« Reply #15 on: January 03, 2012, 03:36:27 PM »

Im interested   Smiley as I do follow tennis in a fashion

The only thing I would say with a post like this and a starting points stake of 150 is that its better to vary the staking amount based on how much you fancy the selection & value etc

But hey its your thread   Smiley

Good Luck 


I'm interested in the thinking behind that statement. I mean, either you think you're backing a winner or you don't.

Fully prepared to have my mind changed BTW...
To do with value.
If I said I'd pay you 2/1 on rolling an even number on a fair die you might have £1 on it.
If I told you I'd pay you 10/1 for the same thing you might want to bet a bit more as it was such a good opportunity.


If you gave me 2/1 on an even money shot, I would bet all my 'gambling' money.

Unless of course I knew I would be getting 10/1 on a 50/50 later, then I'd save it all for that.
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Solaris
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« Reply #16 on: January 03, 2012, 03:37:14 PM »

My account got banned on betfair

was it for botting?  how much was in the account, around £1000 perhaps?

Strange...non helpful post .......

wasn't meant to be helpful - just an obv bad joke



Not a bad joke at all, I lolled, & I imagine many others did, too!

I would imagine that Fraser missed all that Betfair palaver with the dodgy Account, he's generally up for a laugh, at least, he is in real life.

I see you in betting threads a fair bit Tikay; did you dabble quite a bit in the past/do you still?
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« Reply #17 on: January 03, 2012, 03:45:16 PM »

Im interested   Smiley as I do follow tennis in a fashion

The only thing I would say with a post like this and a starting points stake of 150 is that its better to vary the staking amount based on how much you fancy the selection & value etc

But hey its your thread   Smiley

Good Luck  


I'm interested in the thinking behind that statement. I mean, either you think you're backing a winner or you don't.

Fully prepared to have my mind changed BTW...

Hi Tom

Not trying to change your mind just offer my reasoning..

If you are picking selections to a level stake every bet  (ie £10)  to generate a decent profit the exercise is not really feasible(in my opinion)unless you fluctuate the stake .

for example putting £10 on a 1-5 to win shot to win £2 would probably better lend itself  to £50 whereas if a selection was 5- 1 you might want to consider halving the bet (ie £5) o reflect the odds....by the same token if you have really strong information on a player (like hes ill etc) and you give him a lot stronger chance of winning than another of your selections you may think its value to increase your stake accordingly hence my logic to altering the bet sizes..Its really all about adjusting for value
« Last Edit: January 03, 2012, 03:47:11 PM by FUN4FRASER » Logged
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« Reply #18 on: January 03, 2012, 04:08:43 PM »

Im interested   Smiley as I do follow tennis in a fashion

The only thing I would say with a post like this and a starting points stake of 150 is that its better to vary the staking amount based on how much you fancy the selection & value etc

But hey its your thread   Smiley

Good Luck  


I'm interested in the thinking behind that statement. I mean, either you think you're backing a winner or you don't.

Fully prepared to have my mind changed BTW...

Hi Tom

Not trying to change your mind just offer my reasoning..

If you are picking selections to a level stake every bet  (ie £10)  to generate a decent profit the exercise is not really feasible(in my opinion)unless you fluctuate the stake .

for example putting £10 on a 1-5 to win shot to win £2 would probably better lend itself  to £50 whereas if a selection was 5- 1 you might want to consider halving the bet (ie £5) o reflect the odds....by the same token if you have really strong information on a player (like hes ill etc) and you give him a lot stronger chance of winning than another of your selections you may think its value to increase your stake accordingly hence my logic to altering the bet sizes..Its really all about adjusting for value


That seems to make sense... but what about the botting?
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« Reply #19 on: January 03, 2012, 04:12:36 PM »

Reason number 1 (of what will be a very long season) as to why in-play trading is a must:

BLAZ KAVCIC.


Epic fail on my behalf.
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tikay
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« Reply #20 on: January 03, 2012, 04:36:12 PM »

My account got banned on betfair

was it for botting?  how much was in the account, around £1000 perhaps?

Strange...non helpful post .......

wasn't meant to be helpful - just an obv bad joke



Not a bad joke at all, I lolled, & I imagine many others did, too!

I would imagine that Fraser missed all that Betfair palaver with the dodgy Account, he's generally up for a laugh, at least, he is in real life.

I see you in betting threads a fair bit Tikay; did you dabble quite a bit in the past/do you still?

I'm afraid I have gone the whole nine yards, & a bit more besides, punting, during my life.

I started with regular punting on the horses in the Betting shops, in fact, I can date it almost to the day - I did my first lump in the 1974 Derby, on a horse that could not possibly win - Snow Knight, Bryan Taylor was up top, (the horse was trained by Peter Nelson), & was thrown from the animal in the parade ring, & the horse then played up shocking going down. No way he could win, of course. He cantered up @ 50/1, & I did a week's wages.

I got heavilly into the horse in the next 20 years, I was a Member at Cheltenham, Newmarket, & Southwell (!), & I subscribed to all the usual punters gumf, mainly Timeform Racecards, etc. In fact, I had the honour & pleasure to meet both Phil Bull & Reg Griffin on numerous occasions, & I was a sort of regular visitor at Timeform House in Halifax.  I doubt I failed to have a bet less than 10 days in 20 years, during which I learned a lot, & lost even more.

Dogs, too, at one stage, I was dog racing 5 or 6 nights per week - White City, Hackney BAGS (Saturday mornings), Haringey, Walthamstow, Wimbledon, Hendon, Watford, & in later years, Slough BAGS etc. I adored Slough as a track, in fact. I done my money in these punting forecast doubs & trebs, 112 x 10p Forecast Doubles, da de da.....

Later - much later, I discovered Spread betting, groan.....I adored it, & it gives me a tingle even to this day to think about the buzz it gave me. I was with IG Index, & back in the day, what a punter had to do if he wanted to punt "unlimited" was produce a Bank Statement every 3 months proving they were "good" for £50k. So I did that, & loved it. Every Monday, settlement was by cheque. Trust was still around then!

Then I had 2 shocks, days apart.

First up, I was on the Arsenal one Sunday afternoon up @ Old Trafford, on something called "Supremacy", I think I was on at £500 per goal, or whatever. It was carnage - 6-1, I seem to recall. I had plenty of chance to "get out" (you just reversed the bet to get out) but like the fool I am, I hung in, & did the lot, the fat end of £3k as I recall.

Days later, I was a Guest of IG Index at a "private" Golf weekend, @ The Belfry. This was not long after, or before, the Ryder Cup was held there, I think. I booked in & was given a "King Suite", in it was a complete wardrobe of new golf gear, also a note that my Tee-Time on the Saturday morning was 9am, on the Brabazon Course (THE best course @ Belfry).

I toddle up @ 9am the next morning, & there on the tee was Sam Torrance & Ken Brown. "Oh, sorry Guys, thought I was booked for 9am" sorta thing. And I was - I had 18 holes with those two, err, "duffers".

Later, I thought it through, why would IG be so nice to me? A quick look at my Statement confirmed the inevitable. That Golf Weekend had cost me the fat end of £30,000......

The very same week, I discovered Poker, & I snap gave up punting. I think I may have wagered a total of £100 since then, just on Corporate days out at York Races with SB&G etc, nothing else, not a bean.

Snap "cured"?

Not really!

I still yearn to punt, it's like alcholism, or gambling anon, the bug never leaves me, but so far, I've resisted.

My current desire is to mess around on the exchanges, Betfair utterly fascinates me, the maths & logic seem right up my street, but so far, I've managed to resist.

Whether I can continue to resist is another matter altogether. But make no mistake, I've won & lost fortunes gambling. And I do mean fortunes. I'm not proud of it, not at all, but I've never borrowed or stolen to punt, but I have sent myself skinto several times, & dug myself out - by working, not punting - each time. Don't really wanna go down that road again, not at my age!

So yes, I still love to see what's happening with the punting, & have a little smile to myself when I see "idiot betting" - folks doing short-priced accas on football & horses etc.

I tried the "other side" as a youngster too, & took a "Settling Course" with Wm Hill (this was pre Computers or even Genies) which I passed, I think I scored 99.3%, & they offered me a job as a LBO Manager, but I wanted to own my own Shop, so I declined. Then began 5 years in trying to buy a second hand" LBO, & that's a story in itself, believe me.

Now, I have ended up in a lovely place, I work in poker, & work for a "Gaming Site". Every day, I get several updates as to our Sky Bet liabilities, who we want to win, who we want to get beat, then @ 9am the next morning, on the very dot, I see all the numbers, which are midnight-midnight daily, & split into each sport, & each of the "arms" of SB&G. And the daily poker "margin", we look to keep making better numbers, obv, & these are split into each format - so that gives me a kick, a buzz, too, as the Company is stunningly successful. (Ignore all the "SB&G is shit" nonsense, the business is incredible).

I cannot imagine living without the thrill of a punt, be it regular betting, poker, whatever, so I've fallen pretty lucky now, to be honest. I have a pretty impressive library of Bloodstock books, & books about legendary punters, etc. The whole scene just thrills me to bits.

I'm probably a candidate for Gamblers Anon, in truth, except that I'm in remission, & have been for a decade or more. The urge is still there, though, I just satisfy it in other ways. I've never lost money at poker, never made much, either, I just play small-ball, & nick a bit here & there, nice & quietly, whilst the kids shout & scream if they have a winning night, & tell me I cannot play, because I'm over 40, bless them.

Sorry for the overly long reply - as you can seee, I have a bit of a passion for punting.

Carry on guys, as you were.....Wink
« Last Edit: January 04, 2012, 01:16:29 PM by tikay » Logged

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« Reply #21 on: January 03, 2012, 04:43:03 PM »

Good post Tikay
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tikay
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« Reply #22 on: January 03, 2012, 04:43:36 PM »

I guess I should add that these days, I mainly "punt" via Staking on poker, which, thus far, has worked out OK, I just got lucky I think. Maybe time to quit, eh?

OK, thread hijack is over, I better scuttle back to my "boring old man" Diary.
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« Reply #23 on: January 03, 2012, 04:50:22 PM »

I guess I should add that these days, I mainly "punt" via Staking on poker, which, thus far, has worked out OK, I just got lucky I think. Maybe time to quit, eh?

OK, thread hijack is over, I better scuttle back to my "boring uncultured old man" Diary.

fyp
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« Reply #24 on: January 03, 2012, 04:52:01 PM »

Reason number 1 (of what will be a very long season) as to why in-play trading is a must:


hmmmm not sure of this.  imo in-play is only for either reducing variance at a reasonable price eg laying something you backed at 1.5 when its 1.04 and real price is 1.035 or where the market has adjusted to the correct level - you've made your money, so why not get out.  
« Last Edit: January 03, 2012, 04:53:57 PM by doubleup » Logged
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« Reply #25 on: January 03, 2012, 04:52:19 PM »

Cracking post Tk, fascinating
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« Reply #26 on: January 03, 2012, 04:53:23 PM »

Your greatest ever post Tikay. Now get out of retirement and back in the game Smiley

Can't imagine sweating skys p+l can be the same rush
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« Reply #27 on: January 03, 2012, 04:56:24 PM »

Tikay, you are more than welcome to hijack any thread of mine. Love reading your posts. You have lead a fascinating life and I enjoy hearing about it.

doubleup, would agree somewhat but Kavcic is a well-known choker. Having 0.5 of a unit on Darcis at the tremendously huge odds that he was would have been a good idea. Kavcic was *5-2 up serving for the match in the second set and lost 5-7, 3-6.

Do understand your viewpoint and given he was only 6/5 pre-match I wouldn't be winning a great deal had he gone on to win, but in certain situations, especially with some of these mugs in tennis, I don't think it's a bad idea at all.

Youzhny just lost the second set on a tie-break. Could be heading for a piss-poor start.  Cheesy

Edit: Brilliant, brilliant work from Youzhny. Feared the worst as he went 2-0 down in the third but then rattled off six consecutive games to make me a small loser for today.

As for the thread, forgot to put in the odds for Bachinger to win 2-0 in sets (was 11/8).

Chennai:

Kavcic @ 6/5 v Darcis LOST - 1 unit
Pospisil @ 6/4 to win 2-0 in sets v Beck LOST - 1 unit

Doha:

Youzhny @ 5/6 v Gulbis WON + 0.83 units
Stakhovsky   @ 11/8 v Karlovic LOST - 1 unit (7-6 to Ivo in the third set - very frustrating!)
Matthias Bachinger @11/8 to win 2-0 in sets v Bautista-Agut WON + 1.38 units

- 0.79 units

Bank: 149.21

Will add on my bets for tomorrow in a separate post later on.
« Last Edit: January 03, 2012, 05:36:36 PM by Solaris » Logged
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« Reply #28 on: January 03, 2012, 05:54:32 PM »

Im interested   Smiley as I do follow tennis in a fashion

The only thing I would say with a post like this and a starting points stake of 150 is that its better to vary the staking amount based on how much you fancy the selection & value etc

But hey its your thread   Smiley

Good Luck  


I'm interested in the thinking behind that statement. I mean, either you think you're backing a winner or you don't.

Fully prepared to have my mind changed BTW...

Hi Tom

Not trying to change your mind just offer my reasoning..

If you are picking selections to a level stake every bet  (ie £10)  to generate a decent profit the exercise is not really feasible(in my opinion)unless you fluctuate the stake .

for example putting £10 on a 1-5 to win shot to win £2 would probably better lend itself  to £50 whereas if a selection was 5- 1 you might want to consider halving the bet (ie £5) o reflect the odds....by the same token if you have really strong information on a player (like hes ill etc) and you give him a lot stronger chance of winning than another of your selections you may think its value to increase your stake accordingly hence my logic to altering the bet sizes..Its really all about adjusting for value


That seems to make sense... but what about the botting?

I never mentioned botting  ?.....anyway  Cheesy
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« Reply #29 on: January 03, 2012, 06:05:07 PM »

I'm probably a candidate for Gamblers Anon, in truth, except that I'm too famous to be Anon these days.

FYP
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